Welp, I couldn’t keep the momentum going in Week 8. We’re looking for another bounce back in Week 9. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 9 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 9
Week 8 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#MondayMorning@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/YJBUlLHaLt— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) November 2, 2020
Looking back at Week 8, it was solid in terms of the recommended plays. This week 60% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver was the best group at an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group stayed in last place down at a 16.7% success rate. For me personally, it was another bad week. We’ll look to get back on track with the Week 9 DraftKings plays.
- Week 8 – $397 → $43 ($354 LOSS)
- Year Total – $2,804 → $1,684 ($1,120 LOSS)
Week 9 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (BUF) – $7,000 v SEA
It’s no secret Josh Allen has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. After lighting the world on fire and averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game after the first four weeks, Allen hasn’t scored more than 20.4 in any of the last four weeks. A matchup against the Seattle Seahawks secondary could be the remedy. Seattle has allowed more yards and points to quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL so far. Part of that is due to the inept play but another part is due to the fact that teams are generally playing from behind and therefore have to throw more often. That should continue this week and should benefit Allen and the Buffalo Bills passing game in a big way.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – $6,900 @ IND
Lamar Jackson under 7k in this economy? Sign me up please and thank you. I know it’s been a disappointment so far but he’s still averaging 21.5 DraftKings points per game. He hasn’t scored lower than 14.5 as well. Last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers Jackson ran the ball 16 times! He uncharacteristically had two lost fumbles to go along with two interceptions and still had 18.8 DraftKings points. While the Indianapolis Colts have been a good defensive team so far, they aren’t on the Steelers level. Jackson is unlikely to repeat those four turnovers and if he can continue getting a heavy workload with his legs, 20+ DraftKings points is likely the floor with upside for much more.
😈😈😈 pic.twitter.com/ISq33YnUCD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 5, 2020
Drew Lock (DEN) – $5,200 @ ATL
Anytime we get down into this price range, there’s a bit of risk attached to the suggestion. This week’s low-cost quarterback play looks like Drew Lock against the Atlanta Falcons (assuming Matthew Stafford actually suits up because if he sits, Chase Daniel at $4,000 is the play). Lock was featured in my Stream Team article this week due to the matchup. Lock had a brutal start to the 2020 season but has turned it around a bit lately. He’s scored 20.8 and 15 DraftKings points in his last two matchups. He’s also thrown 40+ passes in each of them. This week’s matchup against Atlanta is of the juiciest variety. Lock will get to play a team that’s been one of the worst against the pass in the NFL so far and in a dome as well. Atlanta also has a strong enough offense to score points which should push Lock to continue to throw the entire game.
Others to Consider: Russell Wilson (SEA) – $7,600 @ BUF, Matt Ryan (ATL) – $6,400 v DEN, DeShaun Watson (HOU) – $7,100 @ JAX
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook (MIN) – $8,200 v DET
Number two in pricing this week but number one in your heart is Dalvin Cook. What’s not to like about Cook at this point? He’s currently averaging 108.7 rushing yards per game, two touchdowns per game, and 28.7 DraftKings points per game. Yes, that’s correct, that’s *average.* Cook hasn’t scored below 17.1 points in any of his six games this year. He’s fresh off a 51.6 point game in which he destroyed the Green Bay Packers in his first game back from injury. This week he checks all the boxes we look for in a running back. The matchup is incredibly tasty against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are allowing the most DraftKings points to running backs so far this season. Cook is also playing at home, in a dome, as a favorite, and with a nice implied team total. Cook should be looked at as the top raw points play on the entire slate and one of the safest plays this week.
James Conner (PIT) – $6,900 @ DAL
James Conner has been extremely consistent so far this year. He’s now scored at least 14.1 DraftKings points in six straight games now dating back to the opening week. Conner has seen at least 15 carries in all those games as well. He’s been able to score a touchdown in every game besides one in that stretch also. The bugaboo with Conner is always health. As long as he’s healthy, he gets a nice workload and tends to produce more often than not. This week’s matchup is a great one against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys can’t seem to stop anyone at the moment, so there’s a good chance Conner can keep the good times rolling in this one. The fact it’s in a dome is also a nice boost as well. The only slight on Conner is that he’s not as involved in the passing game as you’d expect although it’s not a complete zero either. Even still, Conner looks like a solid play this week.
David Montgomery (CHI) – $5,700 @ TEN
I know it’s not exciting and quite frankly a bit ugly, but Montgomery deserves your attention. Since Tarik Cohen went down with a season-ending injury, Montgomery has seen the second-most targets among all running backs. He’s seen at least an 81% snap share in every week since as well. Like it or not, Montgomery is one of the cheapest workhorse running backs there is, and that gives him a very nice floor. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in five straight games now and that’s with only one total touchdown in that span. This week’s matchup against the Tennessee Titans is a nice one. Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to running backs so far. You don’t normally get this much volume and this high of a floor at this price point. Take advantage by taking the workload and salary savings with Montgomery.
Missed Tackles Forced on runs leaders:
♦️ Dalvin Cook – 29
♦️ David Montgomery – 29
♦️ Josh Jacobs – 28
♦️ Derrick Henry – 28
♦️ Todd Gurley – 28 pic.twitter.com/sW2fp37m0N— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 5, 2020
Justin Jackson (LAC) – $4,900 v LV
This looks like clear mispricing for this week. Justin Jackson is coming off a 20 touch workload and in a great matchup but is somehow still under $5,000? It doesn’t make much sense. He’s scored 10.5+ DraftKings points in three straight games now and that’s without a touchdown in any of those games. He’s seen 10+ touches in all three games as well despite playing banged-up in Week 7. Jackson has seen at least five targets in all three games as well, turning them into at least 7.3 Draftkings points in each, just from the receiving work. That’s what we in the biz like to call a “really nice floor.” This week’s matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders is one to get excited about as well. Even after miraculously limiting Kareem Hunt last week, the Raiders are allowing the sixth-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. The combination of workload (especially in the passing game), matchup, and price point make Jackson one of the best salary saving options on the entire slate that allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Others to Consider: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – $8,500 @ KC, Chase Edmonds (ARI) – $6,800 v MIA, Antonio Gibson (WAS) – $5,800 v NYG, David Johnson (HOU) – $5,600 @ JAX
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,000 v LV
Keenan Allen just keeps chugging along. This guy gets double-digit targets in his sleep. Rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert, loves feeding Allen the ball. One week after being the biggest misprice on the slate, Allen finally gets a price bump. That being said, he’s still too low. He has at least ten targets in every game with Herbert, outside of a game he left injured in the second quarter. Even in that game, he scored 10.9 DraftKings points. In the other five games, Allen has scored at least 14.2 DraftKings points and has averaged 22.44 in those games. The matchup this week against the Las Vegas Raiders is nothing to worry about either as they don’t have a corner that can handle him. Keep plugging in Allen until the price reaches at least $7,500.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) – $6,800 @ BUF
Tyler Lockett has been a bit more boom-or-bust than you’d like to see so far. He has three games with less than ten DraftKings points but also has two games above 40 as well. That’s what happens when you have superstar D.K. Metcalf on the same offense and MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson spreading the ball around. Wilson has been amazing this year as he’s been able to pick apart defenses at will. He’s seemed to really attack weaknesses in particular. Lockett’s two best games came against teams that were extremely vulnerable to being beaten by slot wide receivers. That’s the same narrative for this week’s opponent, the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo sports a lockdown, outside cornerback by the name of Tre’Davious White. White will most likely be locked up with Metcalf most of the day, leaving Lockett as the one to do the damage. This week looks like Lockett Season so make sure to take advantage.
https://twitter.com/EdmanHours/status/1324440549567418369?s=20
Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $5,000 @ DAL
Figuring out when to start and when to sit Diontae Johnson has been maddening this year. He has missed two games so far with an injury. He’s also gotten hurt in three other games as well. In those games, he has DraftKings point totals of 1.6, 0.9, and 0.8 and has just six total targets in those three games. How has he done in his three healthy games, you ask? Johnson has seen 10, 13, and 15 targets in those games with point totals of 10.7, 23.2, and 29. If he’s fully healthy and makes it through the entire game fully healthy, he’s a stud and makes this price point look very low. The problem is that he’s only made it through half of his games started fully healthy so far. For that reason, he carries a bit of risk. The matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is a great one as well. Johnson should be a great play as long as he plays the entire game.
Sterling Shepard (NYG) – $4,800 @ WAS
From one injury-plagued player to another, Sterling Shepard looks like a misprice as well. This often happens when a player plays on Monday Night Football since the next prices are already released before the game is over. This usually creates some mispricing on certain players, and it looks like that happened with Shepard. Shepard was featured in my Stream Team article this week. Since returning from injury, Shepard has played in two games. In those two games, he’s seen eight and 10 targets and caught six and eight balls, finishing with 17.9 and 15.4 DraftKings points. Both of those matchups were tougher than average as well. He feels like a high floor option that should return excellent value at this price range. Shepard looks like one of the best pay-down options on the slate.
Others to Consider: Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,500 @ JAX, DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) – $8,200 v MIA, Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $7,400 @ KC, Allen Robinson (CHI) – $6,900 @ TEN, Darnell Mooney (CHI) – $3,900 @ TEN, D.J. Moore (CAR) – $5,600 @ KC
Tight Ends
Darren Waller (LV) – $5,800 @ LAC
Darren Waller is a baller, flat out. It’s incredible that he is still under $6,000 at this point. Waller has seen at least six targets in all but one game so far this year. He’s caught at least five passes in all but one game as well. He’s also scored double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games so far. On the season, only Travis Kelce has more targets and receptions, and only Kelce and George Kittle have more receiving yards. He’s the main receiving weapon for the Las Vegas Raiders just the same as those guys are for their respective teams. The difference is that there’s regularly a big price difference between them. The matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers isn’t great but it’s not one to shy away from either. Waller makes for a great option at a bad tight end position if you can afford him.
Mark Andrews (BAL) – $4,800 @ IND
This might be the lowest price we’ll get on Mark Andrews all season. It’s been rough for sure, but tight end in general has been rough. Andrews has more upside than almost every tight end out there. We know Andrews has always been a touchdown-dependent, boom-or-bust option at the tight end position. That hasn’t changed this season. In the four games, he hasn’t gotten into the endzone, Andrews has scored 6.2 or less DraftKings points in each. In the three games, he’s scored a touchdown, Andrews has scored at least 17.6 DraftKings points in all of them. The most encouraging part is that he’s still seeing a solid target share and is still a featured weapon for the Baltimore Ravens. The matchup doesn’t look good on paper as the Colts are allowing the least DraftKings points to tight ends this year. This is simply a bet on the talent and offense as a whole at a price that looks too cheap. The upside here is great at a position that doesn’t offer many enticing options.
Noah Fant (DEN) – $4,600 @ ATL
Noah Fant was one of the most popular breakout candidates at the tight end position heading into the year. He put up borderline historic rookie production for a tight end last year, so the talent was clear. He’s continued to flash this season despite missing a couple of weeks due to injury. In the weeks he’s been healthy, he’s been good and he’s been very involved. Fant has seen at least five targets in all six games he’s played this year. He’s currently averaging 7.2 targets per game which are fifth-most at the position. Fant is currently the TE6 in DraftKings points per game at 12.2. He’s been a true, featured option for the Denver Broncos this year and should continue to be for the remainder of the season. This week’s matchup against the Falcons is a great one. Atlanta is allowing the seventh-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year and have just been a poor defense against the pass in general. As mentioned with Lock, this game is in a dome, and the Falcons should score enough to allow Denver to continue to throw. All of this combined with his price point make Fant one of the best tight end options on the slate.
https://twitter.com/MattMacCoyNFL/status/1323613957555453957?s=20
Others to Consider: Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,200 v CAR, T.J. Hockenson (DET) – $5,100 @ MIN, Hayden Hurst (ATL) – $4,100 v DEN
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favorited teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Drew Lock
- RB – Chase Edmonds
- RB – David Montgomery
- WR – Keenan Allen
- WR – Tyler Lockett
- WR –Brandin Cooks
- TE –Hunter Henry
- Flex – James Robinson
- DST – Dallas Cowboys
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 9 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 10. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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