We’re through five weeks so far and Ryan Fitzpatrick has outscored Lamar Jackson. Every season is weird in its own right but this is definitely how we drew it up. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 6 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 6
Week 5 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#MondayMorning@MyFantasyLeague
— Rob Norton (@norton0723) October 12, 2020
Looking back at Week 5, 43.3% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver was the best group at a 70% success rate. Meanwhile, the quarterback group went from first to last down at a 16.7% success rate. For me personally, it was another rough week. We’ll look to get back on track with the Week 6 DraftKings plays.
- Week 5 – $330 → $65 ($265 LOSS)
- Year Total – $1,632 → $815 ($817 LOSS)
Week 6 DraftKings Plays
Cam Newton (NE) – $6,500 v DEN
Fresh off a couple of weeks off due to COVID, Cam makes his return against the Broncos this week. Denver has been decimated by injuries so far this year on defense, notably star pass rusher Von Miller. That’s going to make life so much easier for Cam, who is also returning to his lowest salary since Week 1. The rushing aspect of his game gives him such a high floor. He’s seen at least nine rushing attempts per game and averaging nearly 12 per game. He’s also producing with those attempts as he’s averaging nearly 50 yards per game on the ground as well with four touchdowns in those three games. That production makes him such a safe play in this game, at his price.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) – $5,900 v NYJ
What does this man have to do to get his price up to where it should be? All he’s done is ball out for the past 16 games including the past four in a row. Yet somehow, he’s still priced under $6,000. Fitzpatrick has now scored 25+ points in four straight games after a rough opening week. Despite his age, he gets it done with his legs as well. Fitzpatrick has a gunslinger mentality and plays with reckless abandon. He’s chipping in 26 yards per contest on the ground as well and has gotten in the endzone twice as well. This week he gets a reeling Jets defense that can’t stop anyone. Fitzmagic should continue to roll this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has now started 16 games since taking back over for Josh Rosen last season.
In those games, he has been a top-12 fantasy scorer in 11 games, averaging 20.4 fantasy per game.
4,438 passing yards, 25 Passing TD and 6 Rushing TD.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 13, 2020
Matthew Stafford (DET) – $6,300 @ JAX
Solid, consistent, and unspectacular is how I’d describe Stafford’s season to this point. He’s scored at least 17 points in every game but also scored under 19 points in every game but one. His two most recent games have been his best so far and that’s coincided with the return of his top weapon, Kenny Golladay. I don’t think that’s a coincidence in the slightest. Stafford’s average target depth increased as soon as Golladay returned as well, getting back to the success they were having last season. He’s also dealt with the highest drop rate in the NFL (9%) to this point. Having Golladay is certainly a welcome sight. This week he’s coming off a bye week and gets to face the Jags defense. The setup is juicy for a nice game here.
Alexander Mattison (MIN) – $7,200 v ATL
It’s Alexander Mattison week baby! It might only last one week, but it’ll be fun. Dalvin Cook came up lame with a groin injury last week and looks unlikely to suit up for this one. After Cook left in the third quarter, Mattison took over and produced in a big way. In just the second half alone, he saw 20 carries and three receptions and turned them into 136 total yards. Mattison looked good ripping off chunk gain after chunk gain. This system under Gary Kubiak has shown to be fruitful for fantasy production and Mattison is talented in his own right. This week he has a great matchup, at home, against the Falcons. Atlanta also allows the most receptions to running backs which should help even more.
Mike Davis (CAR) – $7,000 v CHI
Davis’ price continues to rise and I still continue to want to play him. He’s playing like a man possessed so far this season. Despite barely playing for the first two weeks, Davis leads the league in most missed tackles forced (27) and most broken tackles (14). He trails only Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook in PPR points over the last four weeks and he only played the fourth quarter in one of those games. Davis also leads the league in yards after contact too. We could go on and on but basically, the guy has been incredible. This week he’s got the revenge narrative too against the Bears. The Bears aren’t a great matchup necessarily, but Davis is so involved in the passing game that it doesn’t matter.
David Montgomery (CHI) – $5,800 @ CAR
On the other side of that game, we have another running back seeing a massive target and touch share. Montgomery hasn’t been a guy that I normally look to play as he’s normally not too involved in the passing game. That changed in a big way a couple of weeks ago when Tarik Cohen went down with a season-ending injury. With Cohen out, Montgomery has seen a big spike in both snap count and target share. After three straight weeks of three targets to open the year, he’s seen eight and six in his past two. That will create a high floor and keep him game script proof should they fall behind. This week is a nice matchup against Carolina. The Panthers were already a defense to target and now are racking up injuries to key players like Kawann Short which should make things a bit easier in this matchup.
Myles Gaskin (MIN) – $5,400 v NYJ
Gaskin has been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. Unfortunately, for me, I haven’t been able to capitalize despite targeting the Dolphins backfield. I was pretty invested in both Jordan Howard and Matt Breida heading into the year and Gaskin has vastly outplayed both of them. He’s been working as a true three-down workhorse at this point. He’s seen four or more targets in all five games this season, averaging five targets per game. That kind of floor combined with a matchup against the Jets makes him way too cheap at his price. He checks all the boxes we look for in a cash game running back.
Myles Gaskin is 3rd in avoided tackles per carry and has RB1-level fantasy usage if Jordan Howard is healthy scratched again. pic.twitter.com/9RgtVsQLDx
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 16, 2020
Allen Robinson (CHI) – $7,000 @ CAR
Everyone who reads my work or knows me knows how much I love Allen Robinson. He’s been my boy since he got drafted by the Jags. It’s been brutal to have to watch him deal with some of the worst quarterback play of any wide receiver. He’s had to deal with the likes of Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky for most of his career. Nick Foles is actually considered an upgrade for him which is crazy to think about. Despite all this, he’s continued to produce. ARob is currently the NFL’s target leader through five weeks with 57 and hasn’t had a game lower than nine targets this season. As mentioned with Montgomery, this Panthers defense is not very good so Robinson should continue to be a high floor option.
Kenny Golladay (DET) – $6,200 @ JAX
Golladay has been a much needed boost to the Lions offense after he missed the first two weeks with an injury. He’s seen seven and eight targets in the two games he’s played and scored a touchdown in both. Golladay is the clear top target in this Lions passing game and a vital part of what makes it work. As mentioned under Stafford, a spike in Stafford’s fantasy points and depth of target both occurred upon Golladay’s return. He’s what makes this offense work well. This week he gets a juicy matchup against Jacksonville. The Jags defense is one of the worst against the pass in the NFL and might be without some of their corners. The Lions are also coming off a bye and don’t sport a great running game either so this looks like a great spot for them to really get in a groove.
A.J. Brown (TEN) – $5,600 v HOU
This is just a clear mispricing. With the Titans playing on the rare Tuesday night game, the pricing was already out before they finished. Brown returned from injury after not playing since Week 1 and produced in a big way. He posted a 7/82/1 line against the Bills. He saw nine targets in this one after seeing eight targets in the opening week. AJB is a clear alpha receiver seeing a big workload. He’s been incredibly efficient in his short career so far as well. This week he gets to face a Houston Texans defense that shouldn’t scare anyone. Brown should be a very popular option this week.
A.J. Brown receiving vs. Bills:
◾ 9 targets
◾ 7 catches
◾ 82 yards
◾ 1 TD
◾ 21.2 PPR points pic.twitter.com/jto0QPczLW
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 14, 2020
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) – $6,100 @ MIA
Crowder has become the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the wide receiver position. He’s that guy that just keeps getting it done and continues to be underpriced. In Crowder’s case, it’s the Jets stink that keeps him as a value. The Jets are so bad, however, that can somewhat help in Crowder’s case. He’s become the only reliable player on the entire offense. This allows him to see a massive target share weekly. He’s only been healthy for three games but in those games he’s been a stud. Crowder hasn’t seen less than double-digit targets in any game so far. He also has caught at least seven passes and posted over 100 yards in all of them as well. He’s averaging 25.5 points per game! That’s not a typo, that’s his AVERAGE. Crowder continues to be a great option weekly at a price that continues to be too low.
Others to Consider: Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $5,700 @ NYG, Adam Thielen (MIN) – $7,300 v ATL, Davante Adams (GB) – $8,000 @ TB, Darius Slayton (NYG) – $5,400 v WAS, Jeff Smith (NYJ) – $3,000 @ MIA, DeVante Parker (MIA) – $6,300 v NYJ
Mark Andrews (BAL) – $6,500 @ PHI
Tight end is very interesting this week. Without both Travis Kelce and George Kittle it leaves Andrews as the clear-cut top tier tight end on the slate. He’s $1,000 more than any other tight end so I think he’ll be pretty popular for anyone that has extra money to spend. Andrews has been a bit inconsistent this year so far as he hasn’t seen a ton of targets. That’s always been the deal with Andrews though as he thrives on efficiency in that Ravens offense. This week he’s got a great matchup against the Eagles. This could be a get-right spot for Lamar, Andrews, and the Ravens offense as a whole.
Jonnu Smith (TEN) – $5,200 v HOU
This is another case of mispricing based on when they played. Like A.J. Brown, Jonnu played on the Tuesday night game and the prices were already out. Smith is the clear second option in this passing game at this point. He’s seen at least seven targets in every game so far aside from a five target game. He’s also caught at least four passes in each game as well. Jonnu also has five touchdowns now on the year. This combination of target share and touchdown equity give him a great floor and ceiling combination at a position that doesn’t present many good options. This matchup is also a good one against the Texans defense that isn’t one to run from. Jonnu is my favorite option if you don’t want to pay up for Andrews and don’t want to go to the basement with Irv or Burton.
Jonnu Smith had his bye in Week 4 and is still the #4 scoring TE in fantasy.@TDavenport_NFL spent all offseason talking him up. Great call. Certified TE1.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 14, 2020
Trey Burton (IND) – $3,100 v CIN
If you are spending down under $4,000, there’s really only two options to look towards. You can either go down to the minimum for Irv Smith or go with Trey Burton. Both have great matchups and both are pretty risky and both seem about equivalent plays. I’ll highlight Burton here as he’s seen a decent target share for two weeks in a row as opposed to Smith’s one week. The oft-injured tight end didn’t play the first three weeks but immediately returned to a solid role in Week 4, despite the success of Mo Alie-Cox. Alie-Cox is ruled out for this week and Doyle is more of a blocker at this point. Burton is certainly a risk but he’s also one of the more viable options if you are looking to save some money.
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favorited teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Week 6 DraftKings Plays
- QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
- RB – Mike Davis
- RB – David Montgomery
- WR – A.J. Brown
- WR – Adam Thielen
- WR – Terry McLaurin
- TE – Jonnu Smith
- Flex – Myles Gaskin
- DST – Cincinnati Bengals
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 6 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 7. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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