Predicting Group 3 of UEFA Nations League A

Croatia and Sweden Indistinguishable

One might be quick to label Sweden the ‘whipping boy’ of this group, but it won’t be that straightforward. Croatia’s decline since the 2018 World Cup and 2018/19 Nations League has, although not disastrous, been quite dramatic. Losing to Hungary in Euro 2020 Qualifiers, only managing draws away against Azerbaijan and Wales and scraping past them both 2-1 at home. The Kockasti’s 4-0 demolition away against Slovakia was an impressive break from this trend, though.

If you ignore Sweden’s matches played against the sixth-placed teams in their group (Croatia was in a five-team group, so it would be unfair otherwise), the Kockasti’s 17 points eclipse Blågult’s point tally of 15. To be fair, Croatia were top-seeded and the second-best team in their group was Wales. Although a good national team, one that’s not nearly as good as the top-seeded team in Sweden’s group, Spain.

Since Croatia only scraped past Azerbaijan and Wales at home and drew with them away, it’s unlikely they would’ve managed to defeat a Pot 1 team like Belgium, Germany, France – or Spain, like in Sweden’s case. Meaning Croatia’s and Sweden’s performances in 2019 European Qualifiers were pretty much even. Don’t be fooled by Croatia’s seemingly superior squad – Sweden are infamous for their giant killings. Not to mention their emerging stars.

That said, Croatia and Sweden are indistinguishable heading into this Nations League season.

Don’t Expect Portugal to Defend Their Title

It will likely be a two-horse race between France and Portugal. The ladder of which finished second in their Euro 2020 qualifying group after losing 2-1 to Ukraine and drawing 0-0 with them in Lisbon. Le Bleus experienced near-identical slip-ups, but against Turkey – losing to them 2-0 away and drawing with them 1-1 in Paris. Unlike Portugal, France won their group in the end, though.

France failed to qualify for the 2019 Nations League Finals as a result of Germany dropping a 2-0 lead against the Netherlands after conceding a goal in the 91st minute on the last matchday. Le Bleus dropped points away against die Mannschaft and the Dutch, though. In the end, they obtained one less point than Portugal. However, A Selecao’s group was notably easier, as it contained a struggling Italian side and Poland.

France would have likely won a group containing Italy and Poland. Although not impossible, it’s far from certain that Portugal would have won a group containing Germany and the Netherlands.

Furthermore, on top of being better than Portugal in European Qualifiers, this French team will be even more hungry for the Nations League title after so narrowly missing out on the Finals last time.

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