It was a bounceback week that was needed in a bad way. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 16 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 16
Week 15 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— Rob Norton🎅 (@norton0723) December 22, 2020
Looking back at Week 15, it was better again. This week 63.3% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way tied at an 83.3% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver and running back groups brought up the rear tied at a 50% success rate. For me personally, it was a nice bounce back. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Week 16 DraftKings plays.
- Week 15 – $300 → $535 ($235 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $5,477 → $4,132 ($1,345 LOSS)
Week 16 DraftKings Plays
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – $8,500 v ATL
Patrick Mahomes is simply unfair. He was already unfair and then the Kansas City Chiefs decided to let him throw the ball even more often. Over the last four weeks, only the Pittsburgh Steelers have a higher neutral pass rate. That combination is deadly for any defense. This week he gets a defense that hasn’t been very good this year. The Atlanta Falcons have been better lately, but they still have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate and this matchup has the highest O/U as well. Another 25+ point game looks extremely likely for Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes this season:
‣ 4,462 pass yards
‣ 36 pass TD
‣ 5 INT
‣ 13-1 record
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) December 21, 2020
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $7,000 @ DAL
What an incredible start to Jalen Hurts’ career so far. After putting up 23.3 DraftKings points in his first game, he followed it up with 40.8 DraftKings points this past week. He put up 338 passing yards with three scores and chipped in another 63 yards and a score on the ground too. Through two starts Hurts has 29 carries for 169 yards and a touchdown. Anytime there’s a quarterback getting this many carries, it’s a great choice. This week he gets the gift that keeps on giving, the Dallas Cowboys defense. The Cowboys defense has been terrible this year in all aspects and have given up points by the bunches. They are also the fifth-worst team in terms of rushing EPA defense. That should allow Hurts to take advantage again with his legs and return great value.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – $5,700 @ JAX
It doesn’t get more 2020 than a Mitchell Trubisky recommendation. The Nick Foles experiment was short-lived for the Chicago Bears this year. Even though Trubisky isn’t a great quarterback by any means, he has played better than Foles and has played much better lately. Since the bye, Trubisky has thrown eight touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s also chipped in a little bit with his legs as well. This week against the Jacksonville Jaguars presents another great matchup. The Jaguars are the worst defense in the NFL in passing EPA defense. Trubisky and the Bears have the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate. Everything is in line for Trubisky to continue his nice play and return value here.
Giovani Bernard (CIN) – $4,800 @ HOU
Here’s another case of the pricing being released before the results of the Monday night game. Giovani Bernard is coming off a game in which he handled 26 touches against the Steelers and turned those 26 touches into 22.7 DraftKings points. Should he get another 20+ touches this week, he should easily surpass that. The Houston Texans are the second-worst rushing EPA defense and allow the most DraftKings points to running backs this season. This is an elite matchup for Bernard. The Cincinnati Bengals are not a good offense but that sort of volume, in this matchup, for that price is simply too good to pass up.
Miles Sanders (PHI) – $7,000 @ DAL
Miles Sanders has been an interesting case this season. He handled elite usage early in the season before getting hurt. When he came back, he saw elite usage again before seeing a random two-game dip. He then exploded against the New Orleans Saints when most people had hopped off the bandwagon. He’s simply too good and explosive to keep off the field. This week’s matchup against the Cowboys is a great one. They’ve allowed more rushing yards than any team in the NFL this season. Sanders should be able to rip off a few big runs in this one.
Miles Sanders in Week 15:
– 83% of snaps (most since Week 5)
– 100% of RB carries 👀
– 95% of RB opportunities 👀
– Boston Scott – 0 carries, 1 target
Eagles play the Cowboys in Week 16, who just gave up 150 yards and a touchdown to Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. 🚀
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 21, 2020
David Johnson (HOU) – $6,100 v CIN
David Johnson returned from the COVID reserve list with a vengeance. While he didn’t do much on the ground (eight carries for 27 yards) he was still able to score 27.3 DraftKings points because of his 11 receptions for 106 yards. He stepped into a massive workload with Duke Johnson out. Duke is also out again this week which should allow David Johnson to see a massive snap share once again. With the Texans still missing wide receivers, he should be heavily involved in the passing game once again. The Texans have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate and the Bengals defense is horrendous. David Johnson makes a safe play to plug into cash game lineups this weekend.
Le’Veon Bell (KC) – $5,800 v ATL
Unfortunately, Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered an injury last weekend. This enabled Le’Veon Bell to see a season-high 16 touches in that one. He put up 14.6 DraftKings points on those touches. This week with Edwards-Helaire out again, it should be expected that Bell will see another 15+ touches in this one. The Falcons have been good against running backs this year and have been even better lately but are still not a great defense overall. This game has the highest O/U and the Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate. Taking the starting running back in that situation that should see a nice workload is generally a good choice. The price is also nice considering the situation.
Tyreek Hill (KC) – $9,000 v ATL
What happens when one of the most explosive and efficient wide receivers in NFL history starts seeing a big spike in volume from one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it? That’s right, incredible production. Tyreek Hill’s season-long stat line is now up to 83 receptions for 1,211 yards and 17 touchdowns. There are still two more games to go. It’s truly incredible production from a matchup nightmare like Hill. He’s scored at least 14.8 DraftKings points in every game but one this season, so the consistency is there as well. Like mentioned before, this Falcons defense has gotten better but they haven’t gotten “slow down Tyreek Hill” better. Hill is dealing with an injury so that’s something to keep an eye on, but if he’s active he should be a great play once again.
Calvin Ridley (ATL) – $8,500 @ KC
Death, taxes, and Calvin Ridley balling out when he gets at least eight targets in a game. There aren’t too many more certainties in life than these three things. Anytime Julio Jones is out, Ridley sees a bump in target volume and produces. This season in the five games Jones has missed, Ridley has scored at least 17 DraftKings points in every one. This matchup isn’t great in terms of a DvP perspective as the Chiefs are the second-toughest team in terms of limiting points to the wide receiver position. At the same time, the Falcons are likely to be trailing and dropping back 40+ times in this one which should allow Ridley at least another 8 targets or more. Something has to give here, and it seems likely that Ridley should be able to produce if given the volume. He should produce, and other DraftKings players could pivot thanks to the matchup. This combination makes him one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays on the docket.
Calvin Ridley in 17 career games with 8+ targets:
7 receptions-146 yards-3 TDs
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 21, 2020
Amari Cooper (DAL) – $5,700 v PHI
The loss of Dak Prescott certainly crushed the upside of this Cowboys offense. Under Andy Dalton it’s not dead though. Dalton can still move the ball downfield and enable his pass catchers. Until last week, Amari Cooper had a streak of five straight double-digit DraftKings points games. That stretch also included more tough matchups than nice ones. This matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles isn’t one to be afraid of. Cooper didn’t produce against them earlier in the year, but Darius Slay may not play in this one. Even if he does, he won’t be fully healthy. This game is going to be one of the fastest paced on the slate and is played in a dome. Cooper looks like a nice value in the mid-range this week.
Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $6,300 v IND
Diontae Johnson has been such an interesting case this season. On one hand he continues to be targeted heavily. On the other hand, he has one of the lowest yards-per-target marks in the NFL this season. When in doubt, follow the target volume. He’s now seen double-digit targets in six of his last seven games and in the only game he didn’t, Johnson still saw seven targets. He’s also scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game but one. This week’s matchup against the Indianapolis Colts looks tough on paper but they shouldn’t be feared too much. This price is simply too cheap for the amount of targets Johnson has been receiving.
Others to Consider: Robby Anderson (CAR) – $5,500 @ WAS, Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $6,700 v CAR, D.J. Moore (CAR) – $5,800 @ WAS, Keke Coutee (HOU) – $5,400 v CIN, Michael Gallup (DAL) – $4,100 v PHI, Russell Gage (ATL) – $5,100 @ KC
Travis Kelce (KC) – $8,500 v ATL
Travis Kelce’s price continues to rise, but he continues to be in heavy consideration weekly. As always, Kelce should be someone that should be prioritized. It might be tough to afford him this week but if you can, plug him in. If Tyreek does end up sitting, Kelce almost becomes a must-play in cash game lineups. Kelce is essentially a wide receiver listed as a tight end. He’s second in the NFL in receiving yards this year and fourth in receptions. Especially at a position as bad as tight end is, that’s an insane advantage. This week’s matchup against the Falcons is another great one, not that matchup matters for Kelce. If some late value opens up in the next day or so, Kelce should be one of the first priorities.
Highest-Graded Players of 2020:
1. Aaron Rodgers – 94.9
2. Wyatt Teller – 93.8
3. Patrick Mahomes – 93.0
3. Travis Kelce – 93.0 pic.twitter.com/tq87J9q66j
— PFF (@PFF) December 19, 2020
Noah Fant (DEN) – $4,800 @ LAC
It’s been somewhat of a lost season for Noah Fant this year due to injury, but when healthy, he’s been good for the most part. After a hot start to the season, Fant got hurt, missed a few games, and hasn’t looked the same since. That is, until last week when he turned 11 targets into eight catches for 68 yards and a score. Fant is still one of the best weapons Drew Lock has at his disposal, so it would be wise for him to continue to take advantage of that. The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t a defense to fear. This game also should feature some of the most plays run which helps the volume for Fant. Fant makes a great option in the mid-range at tight end this week.
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $3,600 @ DAL
Starting to sense a theme here? Play players that are facing the Cowboys is usually a great choice. As mentioned before, the Cowboys defense is horrible. They can let up production through the air or on the ground. Dallas Goedert has disappointed the last two weeks, but he’s seen eight and six targets in both of those. He’s now seen at least six targets in six straight games now. If Goedert sees at least six targets in this matchup, in a dome, and at this price he should be able to smash what is needed to return value.
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favorited teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Patrick Mahomes
- RB – Giovani Bernard
- RB – David Johnson
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – Amari Cooper
- WR – Robby Anderson
- TE – Dallas Goedert
- Flex – Miles Sanders
- DST – Denver Broncos
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 16 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 17. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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