This was perhaps the most tilting week of the season. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 14 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 14
Week 13 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/YAekfU1Ymi— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 7, 2020
Looking back at Week 13, it was better again. This week 63.3% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way tied at an 83.3% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver and running back groups brought up the rear tied at a 50% success rate. For me personally, it was incredibly frustrating. The GPPs did not do well at all. As for the cash game lineups, I missed doubling up ($400 swing) by less than a point. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Week 14 DraftKings plays.
- Week 13 – $315 → $120 ($195 LOSS)
- Year Total – $4,777 → $3,486 ($1,291 LOSS)
Week 14 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC) – $6,800 v ATL
Justin Herbert certainly was a disaster last week. He had by far the worst game of his young career as the Los Angeles Chargers were blanked and he only put up 6.4 DraftKings points. This matchup against the Atlanta Falcons looks like the perfect rebound spot. The Falcons allow the sixth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. This game also should be a fairly close game between two teams that can score points and have a hard time stopping opponents from scoring points. This game is also in a dome which is conducive for offense, especially passing offense. Since his performance was so bad last week, Herbert’s price dropped despite the nice matchup. This is something to take advantage of this week.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – $7,900 v NYJ
The LetRussCook.com movement has been stymied over the past month or so. Russell Wilson has had his four worst games of the season all in the last four games. In that span he has only four passing touchdowns compared to three interceptions. He also hasn’t thrown for more than 263 yards in that span either. Nothing says remedy like playing against the New York Jets. After Derek Carr was a massive letdown in a great matchup, he was able to bounce back with a huge game against the Jets. Derek Carr is solid but he’s no Russell Wilson. The Jets have been better against the run than they have against the pass and lately have been getting smashed by every quarterback that they run into. Wilson needs a big game in a bad way and the Jets don’t have the personnel to slow him down. Add in that the Seattle Seahawks have the second-highest implied team total this weekend and you can expect Russ to get back in the kitchen and start cooking again this weekend.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – $6,700 @ JAX
Don’t look now but Ryan Tannehill is quietly the QB9 in points per game and the QB7 in overall points this season. He’s coming off a great game against the Cleveland Browns in which he put up 389 yards and three touchdowns. Earlier in the year, Tannehill went for 239 yards and four scores against this Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Since then, they’ve only gotten worse as injuries to their top two corners have them on injured reserve. As it sits right now, the Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season and are the second-worst in passing EPA defense. The Tennessee Titans are third in passing EPA offense this year and have the third-highest implied team total this weekend. All this is adding up to an absolute smash spot for Tannehill as it doesn’t get much better than this.
Ryan Tannehill ranks No. 1 in the #NFL in…
– 4th quarter comebacks (4)
– Game-winning drives (5)
– % of drives ending in an offensive TO (4.4)He's top 5 in…
– Passing TDs – 26 (5th)
– TD% (4th)
– INT% (5th)
– Adjusted YPA (4th)
– Yds gained per pass completion (3rd) #Titans— Emily Proud (@emily_proud) December 7, 2020
Others to Consider: Aaron Rodgers (GB) – $7,500 @ DET, Tom Brady (TB) – $6,900 v MIN, Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $5,100 v NO
Running Backs
Giovani Bernard (CIN) – $5,000 v DAL
Admittedly, Giovani Bernard has not been good over the past month or so. Despite having a full workload, Bernard hasn’t produced double-digit DraftKings points in a game since before the Week 9 bye. Part of that is due to the loss of Joe Burrow but another part happens to be a brutal stretch of the schedule in which the Cincinnati Bengals faced three of the toughest matchups for running backs in the NFL along with the New York Giants who have been playing much better lately. This week is not anything like that. The Dallas Cowboys are the worst team in the NFL in rushing EPA defense. They also allow the most carries per game and are bottom-third in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. While it’s still not an ideal situation on offense for Bernard, the matchup couldn’t get much better than it is this week.
Aaron Jones (GB) – $7,600 @ DET
Aaron Jones has held off the regression police for those that faded him this year. He’s currently the RB5 on the year in total PPR points (193.30) and the RB4 in PPR points per game (19.33). Jones has also been one of the safest and most consistent running backs this season as well as he’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in every single game. This week’s matchup is about as good as it gets for Jones and the Green Bay Packers. The Detroit Lions allow the most DraftKings points to running backs this season. They are also one of the worst teams in terms of rushing EPA defense and are banged up as well. This game has the highest O/U with the Packers having the highest implied team total on the slate so there should be a lot of fantasy goodness to go around in this one.
There’s no quit in Aaron Jones 😤 pic.twitter.com/HuDJRPijM2
— PFF (@PFF) November 30, 2020
Myles Gaskin (MIA) – $5,600 v KC
Last week Myles Gaskin returned from a knee injury and immediately stepped right back into a workhorse role. In his first game back he handled 50 snaps and 23 touches and turned those into 141 total yards. Gaskin didn’t score but had plenty of opportunities to do so which is a promising sign moving forward. He’s now scored double-digit DraftKings points in every healthy game aside from one this year. He’s averaging 14.3 DraftKings points per game this year and his usage is even better. The Miami Dolphins aren’t an efficient running team but their opponent this week, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the least efficient rushing defenses. Gaskin’s price is simply too low for his workload. Gaskin should be able to hit solid value simply on volume alone and should he punch one in, he’ll turn into a great value.
J.D. McKissic (WAS) – $4,900 @ SF
It’s always terrible to see a player get injured, especially an exciting, young player like Antonio Gibson. Unfortunately, he’s dealing with a painful case of turf toe that is likely to have him sit this week and possibly beyond. Fantasy managers need to make adjustments in cases like this. J.D. McKissic looks likely to be the guy to benefit, especially in cases where the Washington Football Team is underdogs, which is most weeks. After Gibson left with an injury, McKissic handled five carries and ten receptions. The receptions are what he does. In three of the last five weeks, McKissic has had at least ten targets and turned all of those into at least 17 DraftKings points. All of those games they were trailing for most of the game. This week they are underdogs again against the San Francisco 49ers. At a price this low, McKissic should be able to catch enough passes to get his way to value.
Others to Consider: Derrick Henry (TEN) – $8,700 @ JAX, Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $7,000 v ATL, Duke Johnson (HOU) – $4,800 @ CHI, David Montgomery (CHI) – $6,500 v HOU
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (GB) – $9,300 @ DET
2020 Davante Adams is equivalent to 2019 Michael Thomas. If they are on the slate and under $10,000, odds are you’re trying to find a way to play them, especially in a dome. This week Adams gets to play in a dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Detroit Lions currently allow the eighth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this season but are actually third-worst in passing EPA defense. They are already missing one of their top corners, Desmond Trufant, and maybe without another as well if Jeff Okudah misses too. As mentioned before, the Packers have the highest implied team total of any team this weekend as well. This looks like a massive smash spot for Adams to post another monster game.
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) – $8,400 v NYJ
D.K. Metcalf is currently leading the NFL in receiving yards. The Jets are currently second-worst in passing EPA defense. The Jets also are down to third and fourth string cornerbacks. This is very, very bad news for the Jets, in case it wasn’t obvious. As mentioned before, the Seahawks have the second-highest implied team total on the slate. Metcalf has only had two games of single-digit DraftKings points this season and is averaging over 20 points per game. There really aren’t many corners, if any at all, that can handle a monster like Metcalf let alone the Jets backup corners. Expect a monster game for this monster of a man this weekend.
DK Metcalf handing out dirt naps
— PFF (@PFF) December 6, 2020
Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $6,700 @ SF
Can Terry McLaurin please get a legitimate quarterback throwing him the ball? No disrespect to Alex Smith who deserves all the credit for his comeback and should certainly win Comeback Player of the Year honors, but he doesn’t feed McLaurin the way he needs to be fed. Despite that, McLaurin should be able to overcome just as he’s done his whole career so far. Last week’s dud was just his second game this season scoring single-digit DraftKings points. He should be able to rebound nicely this week in a decent matchup against the 49ers. With Antonio Gibson out, Washington should need to lean more on the pass in this one. It also helps out that they are playing this game in a dome as well.
Corey Davis (TEN) – $5,700 @ JAX
This might come as a bit of a surprise, but Corey Davis has scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game but one this season. He’s been incredibly consistent after a wildly inconsistent career to this point. Davis has four 100-yard games this season. His current 16-game pace stat line looks like this: 84.8/1,281.6/6.4. That’s high-end fantasy wide receiver production and it seems like nobody is valuing him as such. This matchup is a great one as well. As mentioned before, the Jaguars are the second-worst in passing EPA defense. They are also the fifth-worst in DraftKings points allowed to wide receivers this year. This game has one of the highest O/U and the Titans have the third-highest implied team total. To get a wide receiver with this level of involvement, in this type of matchup, and with this price feels like stealing.
Others to Consider: Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,700 v ATL, Calvin Ridley (ATL) – $7,500 @ LAC, Chris Godwin (TB) – $6,300 v MIN, Robby Anderson (CAR) – $6,200 v DEN, Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $4,900 v DAL, Tim Patrick (DEN) – $4,200 @ CAR
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,400 @ MIA
Travis Kelce is a machine. His advantage over other tight ends is absurd. He currently leads all tight ends in targets (110), receptions (82), receiving yards (1,114), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (8). His 1,114 receiving yards are only five behind DK Metcalf for the NFL lead among all players. To get this guy at a position as bad as tight end is amazing. His consistency has been incredible too. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game except one this season. To put it frankly, Kelce simply isn’t fair. The matchup against the Miami Dolphins this week isn’t a great one by any means, but Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs offense are simply too good to ignore any given week.
Travis Kelce is in his own tier 😤 🏆 pic.twitter.com/TqPGyJN13O
— PFF (@PFF) December 11, 2020
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) – $2,500 @ LV
It’s been a while since Mo Alie-Cox was relevant in fantasy football but it was just a few months ago that he was useful. Back in weeks two and three, he posted 19.1 and 14 DraftKings points, respectively. Since that point, Trey Burton has seemed to overtake him. That is until recently. Alie-Cox has now played more snaps for two straight weeks although it hasn’t led to many fantasy points. Nevertheless, playing a nice snap count is a step in the right direction especially for a guy that is the stone minimum price. This game against the Las Vegas Raiders has one of the highest O/U on the slate and the Indianapolis Colts have the sixth-highest implied team total. Playing Alie-Cox allows the flexibility to play more expensive players across your lineup. For a player that is playing a good amount of snaps in a good environment, can’t ask for much more at this price.
Logan Thomas (GB) – $3,300 @ SF
Logan Thomas continues to be a value play at tight end week in and week out. This is due to his maddening inconsistency in which he’s looked to be a value and hasn’t come through multiple times this year. Lately, though, he’s produced more often than not. Thomas has scored double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last four games including a 24.8 point outing last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He continues to run some of the most routes of any tight end in the NFL. This week’s matchup against the 49ers isn’t great by any means, but it’s hard to ignore that type of route volume at such a barren position and for such a low price.
Others to Consider: Darren Waller (LV) – $6,800 v IND, Dalton Schultz (DAL) – $3,500 @ CIN, Jordan Akins (HOU) – $2,900 @ CHI
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Aaron Rodgers
- RB – Giovani Bernard
- RB – Myles Gaskin
- WR – Davante Adams
- WR – Adam Thielen
- WR – Corey Davis
- TE – Jordan Akins
- Flex – J.D. McKissic
- DST – New York Jets
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 14 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 15. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
Main photo:
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