Week 10 was finally a great week. Hopefully, this can jumpstart a hot streak moving forward. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 11 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 11
Week 10 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— Rob Norton (@norton0723) November 16, 2020
Looking back at Week 10, it was actually my worst week yet in terms of the recommended plays. This week 30% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group was the best group at a perfect 50% success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group was last down at a 0% success rate. For me personally, it was the opposite case. I had a nice bounce-back week. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the Week 11 DraftKings plays.
- Week 10 – $425 → $740 ($315 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $3,622 → $2,489 ($1,133 LOSS)
Week 11 DraftKings Plays
Lamar Jackson (BAL) – $7,300 v TEN
Lamar Jackson has certainly been disappointing this year. He’s still averaging over 21 DraftKings points per game. Even if he just gets his average, that’s still nearly 3x value which is perfectly fine. Jackson also has massive upside in addition to that. This week’s matchup is a nice one as well. The Tennessee Titans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this year. Their secondary hasn’t been very good at all. The Baltimore Ravens have the third-highest implied team total on the main slate which gives Jackson some nice touchdown upside in this one. The Titans are also a fast-paced team so this is a nice pace-up spot as well and they can also score so Jackson and the Ravens are likely going to have to throw and score more often than usual in this one. Everything points to a get-right spot for Jackson and the Ravens offense this week and at his second-lowest price since the beginning of 2019, this should be a great spot to get him.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – $6,500 v NE
Deshaun Watson is quietly having the best year of his career and people don’t realize it. Watson’s PFF passing grade, adjusted completion percentage, and yards per attempt are all career highs or close to it. He’s been even better since Bill O’Brien was fired. Until last week’s dud, Watson had five straight games with at least 23.90 fantasy points. Last week’s bad outing was due to the terrible weather. This week should be a nice bounce-back spot for Watson against the New England Patriots. The Patriots are near the bottom of the league in nearly every single per play efficiency metric. This isn’t your father’s Patriots defense. The weather won’t be an issue either in this one as it will be played in a dome. Watson looks to be the best combination of high floor and ceiling for the price on the entire slate.
Deshaun Watson: only QB in the NFL with zero passing game grades under 60 this season. pic.twitter.com/JGe2sct884
— PFF (@PFF) November 13, 2020
Joe Burrow (CIN) – $5,500 @ WAS
Joe Burrow is the only active quarterback in the NFL that averages more than 40 pass attempts per game. That type of volume is extremely valuable. He’s also capable of chipping in with his legs as well with 130 yards and three scores on the ground. The Cincinnati Bengals are not a good team, particularly on defense. This puts Burrow in plenty of situations where they are trailing and need him to throw it every play to come back. While it hasn’t translated into wins, it’s great for fantasy managers. This week should be no different against the Washington Football Team. The big concern is Washington’s nasty defensive line. They have one of the highest sack and pressure rates in the league and the Bengals offensive line is terrible. On the other hand, Washington plays at one of the fastest paces in the NFL which should help this game produce one of the most plays on the slates. While the defensive line of Washington is a concern, volume and pace-of-play outweigh that concern, especially at this price.
Dalvin Cook (MIN) – $9,000 v DAL
Is there really any week not to like Dalvin Cook? Just taking a look at his game log, he hasn’t had a game with less than 15.2 DraftKings points yet and that was last week in a terrible matchup when he didn’t score a touchdown. He’s scored a touchdown in every other game so far this year. Cook’s 28.7 DraftKings points per game trails only Christian McCaffrey. Cook currently leads the NFL with 954 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns despite missing a game. The only slight concern when it comes to Cook is that he doesn’t see as many targets as you’d like to see. This week against the Dallas Cowboys that shouldn’t matter. Dallas is one of the worst teams in the NFL and is one of the least efficient teams in defending the run. The Minnesota Vikings currently have the fifth-highest implied team total on the main slate. Combine that with the fact that Dallas plays at a very fast pace and this game is at home and in a dome and you have a guy that’s pretty much as safe as they come.
Most missed tackles forced on runs:
1. Dalvin Cook – 41
2. Derrick Henry – 34
3. Josh Jacobs – 33 pic.twitter.com/NztzJcn5ah
— PFF (@PFF) November 20, 2020
Mike Davis (CAR) – $6,800 v DET
Mike Davis has really struggled over the last month. He’s scored eight and change DraftKings points in four straight games now. Christian McCaffrey did happen to play in one of those games, to be fair. Even still, Davis has been struggling after what we got used to in his four starts before that. A quick look at the recent schedule shows that he faced some pretty great run defenses during that stretch. Luckily for Davis, this week’s matchup against the Detroit Lions is a cakewalk. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to running backs in the NFL. They are also allowing the most receptions to running backs as well, something Davis excels at. This sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for Davis.
Duke Johnson (HOU) – $5,400 v NE
Let’s go back to the well with Duke Johnson this week. It didn’t work out so well last week, but the blame will fall on the weather in that one. Johnson still played 54 of 57 snaps in that game. If you were to tell me I can get a running back that will see more than 90% of snaps and is involved in the passing game for this price, I’ll take that every single time. This also looks like it could be a nice bounce-back spot as well. The New England Patriots aren’t what they used to be on defense. Johnson looks like he should be able to handle the majority of the backfield snaps and likely see at least 15 carries and five targets. This makes him a great salary saving option at running back this week.
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) – $4,800 @ DEN
Like Duke Johnson, Salvon Ahmed looks like he should be one of the best salary saving options at running back this week. It’s not often that a running back that sees the majority of the snaps and touches will be priced under $6,000 let alone $5,000. Ahmed looked really good last week in his first career start. He handled 21 carries for 85 yards and a score and also chipped in one catch for another five yards. He looked explosive throughout as well. The biggest worry with Ahmed is the return of Matt Breida. It’s anyone’s guess as to how involved Breida will be in his first game back. However, Breida’s strength is in the passing game and Ahmed wasn’t very involved in that area last week. That’s definitely a concern, but at this price and a likelihood of at least 15 touches, that concern can be eased a bit.
Davante Adams (GB) – $8,600 @ IND
People, it’s Davante Adams in a dome… does there really need to be anything else said? Adams is having an unbelievable year in 2020. He’s only had one game below 12.10 PPR points this year and that was a game he got hurt. Even the 12.10 point game was his first game back from that injury and he still saw ten targets in that one. Four of his seven healthy games have been over 30 points and two of them over 44 points. On the season as a whole, Adams leads all wide receivers in PPR points (26.73), targets (11.6), receptions (8.7), yards (105.9), and touchdowns (1.3) per game. Those are some truly ridiculous stats. Those stats extrapolated out over a 16 game pace would have Adams with a 185/139/1,694/20 line. This week’s matchup against the Indianapolis Colts seems tougher than it is. The volume plus a matchup with a high O/U in a dome far outweigh a perceived tough matchup. The one thing to keep an eye on is that Adams is dealing with an ankle issue.
Davante Adams Dome Games since start of 2019
Average PPR Points: 33.3 🔥🔥🔥
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) November 19, 2020
Jakobi Meyers (NE) – $4,900 @ HOU
Jakobi Meyers is contending for my favorite play on the slate all things considered. To put it simply, Meyers has been a baller since he’s been given a full-time role. Over the last four weeks, he has the tenth most PPR points among all wide receivers. In that span, he’s scored double-digits in every single game. Meyers has the eighth-most targets (37), sixth-most receptions (27), and fifth-most receiving yards (346) in that same span. He’s clearly been Cam Newton’s main target since Julian Edelman went down. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out when Edelman returns, but for now, Meyers is the main man. This week’s matchup against the Houston Texans is a nice one. The Texans have allowed the tenth most points to wide receivers this year. This game should also be one of the higher scoring, more competitive games as well and is also in a dome. With the level of targets Meyers is seeing, it’s an egregious price and one that actually came down from last week. Take advantage of this mispricing this week.
Denzel Mims (NYJ) – $3,300 @ LAC
There are a few different punt plays at wide receiver this week but perhaps my favorite is Denzel Mims. Mims missed the first six weeks of the season due to injury but played the previous three games before the bye week. In those games, he saw at least seven targets in two of them. He also has the athletic profile that gives him some nice upside if he’s able to bust loose on a couple of big plays. This week’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers isn’t great by any means, but it’s all about volume down at this level. Any time there’s a wide receiver that can project for at least five targets down at this price point, it’s worth a shot as a salary saving option that can help get more studs in the lineup.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $6,900 v CIN
Terry McLaurin currently has the ninth most PPR points among all wide receivers. He also currently is tied for the fourth-most targets per game, has the ninth most receptions per game, and has the fifth-most receiving yards per game. Keep in mind he’s done this with the three-headed quarterback monster that is Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, and Alex Smith. Hopefully, he gets a competent quarterback as soon as next season and doesn’t have to go the full Allen Robinson route. Anyways, this week specifically McLaurin gets to take on the lackluster Cincinnati Bengals defense. Not that matchup matters too much when it comes to McLaurin, but it’s a bonus when it’s a good one. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to wide receivers on the year so far. In a game that should be fairly fast-paced, McLaurin should see his usual 9+ targets and produce another nice game.
Everyone knows Terry McLaurin has taken that 2nd year jump
Rookie year: 93 targets, 58 receptions, 919 yards, 7 TDs
This year 16 game pace? 154 targets, 114 receptions, 1581 yards, 7 TDs
That isnt just a 2nd year jump, that's a SUPERSTAR level jump. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/KpdklU38bj
— Fantasy Scouts 24/7 (@FFBallAllDay) November 14, 2020
Others to Consider: Keenan Allen (LAC) – $7,400 v NYJ, Michael Thomas (NO) – $7,300 v ATL, Jakeem Grant (MIA) – $3,500 @ DEN, Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,200 v NE, Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $5,600 @ WAS, Julio Jones (ATL) – $7,500 @ NO
Hayden Hurst (ATL) – $4,400 @ NO
Just when tight end looked like it couldn’t get any more brutal, we come to this week’s main slate and don’t have a single tight end priced above $4,900. It’s truly brutal stuff from a desolate position. Regardless of all this, someone must be placed in the tight end position. Hayden Hurst has been surprisingly consistent of late. He’s now scored double-digit DraftKings points in four straight games now and has seen at least seven targets in three of those four games. Hurst has also seen at least six targets in five of his last six games. At the tight end position, that’s especially hard to come by. This week against the New Orleans Saints is a nice matchup as well. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most PPR points to tight ends on the year. The matchup, in general, should be one of the higher scoring affairs and this game is also in a dome. Hurst looks like the best option in the higher price range this week.
Eric Ebron (PIT) – $4,000 @ JAX
Another guy that has been surprisingly consistent this year has been Eric Ebron. Ebron had scored double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games heading into last week before last week’s dud. Even last week though he saw six targets. Ebron has actually seen at least five targets in all but two games this season. As mentioned with Hurst, that sort of consistent volume is extremely rare at the tight end position. This week he gets to take on a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is allowing the seventh most PPR points to tight ends. They are even worse when you look at their pass efficiency metrics on a per play basis. The only thing that will hold Ebron back is the potential game script. If the Pittsburgh Steelers are able to establish an early lead, they could lean on the run. Even still, for a guy at this price on a team with one of the highest implied totals on the slate and with this much consistent volume, Ebron is a very viable play in all formats.
Logan Thomas (WAS) – $3,300 v CIN
Logan Thomas always feels like the best punt play option at tight end most weeks. He’s seeing a consistent role weekly. Thomas, who was featured in my Stream Team article this week, has now seen at least four targets in every single game this season. His production on those targets has been a rollercoaster, but he’s still getting the volume you love to see at this position. The trend, which could be a bit fluky, is that he’s produced against generally bad defenses. He has double-digit DraftKings points in matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Detroit Lions. This week’s opponent is the Cincinnati Bengals. They can certainly be lumped in with the rest of them as a bad defense. The Bengals allow the second-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends this year. The matchup and volume combined with the price make Thomas a worthy salary saving option at tight end this week.
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Taysom Hill
- RB – Adrian Peterson
- RB – Duke Johnson
- WR – Davante Adams
- WR – Jakobi Meyers
- WR – Keenan Allen
- TE – Logan Thomas
- Flex – Dalvin Cook
- DST – Atlanta Falcons
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 10 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 11. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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