We’ve finally arrived at the top 5. These are the teams most likely to lift the FIFA World Cup trophy, and these are the players most likely to achieve the biggest moment of their careers this summer in the United States. While there are arguably three clear “favorites” to win the World Cup, all of the top 5 teams will be able to make a compelling case. Having made it this far, we’ve covered and projected all 48 teams in the tournament, including the likes of South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, and Germany. Here is your look at the top 5 in the power rankings.
5. The Netherlands
(Group F with Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia)
Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands have fewer superstars than the team that reached the 2010 final and 2014 semifinals, but the Dutch were quarterfinalists in 2022 (and Euro 2024 semifinalists) and will continue to aim high this tournament. Memphis Depay is now the nation’s top goalscorer and the most experienced servant on the national team. He plays for Corinthians in Brazil. He’s paired with Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) and Galatasaray’s Noa Lang.
The Dutch experienced a significant blow when midfielder Jerdy Schouten tore his knee, which means they will need a midfielder to step up in his absence. But there’s more experience in the midfield with Frenkie de Jong (Barcelona), Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool), and Tijjani Reijnders (Manchester City). The midfield is the weak spot if de Jong isn’t fit, along with the team not having a defined striker beyond Memphis. Bart Verbruggen in goal (Brighton & Hove) is respectable, and you still have veteran Premier League figures like Nathan Aké and Virgil van Dijk in the back, plus dangerous attacking full‑back Denzel Dumfries from Inter.
The Netherlands qualified with ease, drawing twice against Poland, who later missed the tournament. They beat Norway in March and drew with Ecuador while playing with 10 men. The group isn’t easy — Sweden is a banana peel, Japan is a tough customer, and Tunisia will fight — but they should advance and possibly threaten some of the other top contenders.
4. England
(Group L with Croatia, Ghana, and Panama)
Champions in 1966 — is it “coming home” for Thomas Tuchel’s England? Many would say it’s not, but this is still an England side that has some of the world’s best players and was perfect in qualifying (and reached the Euro 2024 final). Always under pressure, England still depends on Bayern’s Harry Kane to find goals. They lost to Senegal in June and drew with Uruguay, with a narrow loss to Japan in March. Against the very elite, England frequently don’t click.
Still, this is a group they should not find terribly difficult, and the squad list is crowded. Barcelona’s Marcus Rashford and Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon are still here. Cole Palmer from Chelsea needs form, and Jude Bellingham at 22 is now in his prime from Real Madrid. There are also newer faces like Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers and Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze to consider. England can be a bit placid and boring at times — that’s just how they play — but Jordan Pickford’s experience matters in close games as a goalkeeper. Ultimately, it just takes a player like Kobbie Mainoo or Rashford having a huge tournament to really improve their odds. Kane is going to be there, hunting goals.
3. Argentina
(Group J with Algeria, Austria, and Jordan)
While Argentina have done little in terms of friendlies to prove they are the best team in the world, they won Copa América for a second consecutive time in 2024 and lifted the last World Cup. The odds of defending their title remain favorable as they have an easier path to the final. Their group has a couple of tricky games, but to be clear, they are favored in all three matchups. It’s the last ride for Lionel Messi, and Lionel Scaloni has built a squad that still lets the little maestro shine at 38 (he’ll be 39 in June).
Argentina topped the CONMEBOL table during qualifying, but they did lose to Ecuador in September, along with a draw against Colombia at home in June. This team is all about experience: Emiliano Martínez (Aston Villa) is still in goal, Nicolás Otamendi (River Plate) is here at 38, along with Tottenham’s Cristian Romero.
In the midfield, Boca Juniors’ star midfielder Leandro Paredes is here, along with Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister, but there are younger players too. Enzo Fernández (25), Nico Paz (21), and Giuliano Simeone (23) represent the next generation. Messi has a proven goalscorer to pair with in the form of Julián Álvarez (Atlético Madrid), and Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan). It’s debatable if they have a better squad than England or some of the other UEFA teams, but they are South America’s best team by some margin, with the others having fallen to the wayside. Their confidence — even their arrogance — is an asset in the World Cup.
2. Spain
(Group H with Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay)
Placed in one of the tournament’s weakest groups, Spain should be on relative cruise control in the first three games, given the 2010 World Cup champions and Euro 2024 champions have their toughest opponent, Uruguay, as their last game. Spain’s first two games are indoors in Atlanta, where they are heavy favorites against first‑time participants Cape Verde and a struggling Saudi Arabia side that did stun Argentina in Qatar.
Spain qualified easily, and only a dead rubber draw against Turkey in November kept them from a perfect record. In the March window, they beat Serbia and drew with Egypt. Spain’s reputation was built by beating Germany, France, and England in consecutive matches at Euro 2024; the talent here is immense. Barcelona’s Joan García is a third option in goal. You have two U‑21 talents like Barcelona’s Pau Cubarsí to call on, but also experienced players like Marc Cucurella (Chelsea).
The Barcelona‑influenced midfield with Dani Olmo and Pedri is lethal; Rodri from Manchester City can’t be forgotten. Up front there’s the Real Sociedad star Mikel Oyarzabal, and the wonderkid Lamine Yamal, perhaps the world’s best player who takes on games and changes them on his own. Spain has depth, experience, talent, and youth, and their system under Luis de la Fuente works effectively against top teams. Yamal’s health will have a big impact on whether Spain remain co-favorites or fall further in the pack.
1. France
(Group I with Senegal, Norway, and Iraq)
Despite the tough group, nobody would be shocked if Les Bleus went undefeated. That’s how good Didier Deschamps’ France is, across both club and international football. They are widely regarded as the world’s best team at the moment. The 2022 World Cup finalists and 2018 champions, they exited Euro 2024 in the semifinals. Their only blemish during qualifying was an away draw to Iceland. This March, playing with their “B squad” at times, they eased past Brazil and Colombia.
The talent is incredible. The defense might be the weak spot, but there’s still Dayot Upamecano (Bayern), Ibrahim Konaté (Liverpool), and PSG’s Lucas Hernández here. In the midfield, N’Golo Kanté at 35 is still serving as a pivot, but PSG’s Warren Zaïre‑Emery is now in the mix at 20 years old, along with Real Madrid’s pair of Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni.
France’s forward depth is where they shine. When fit, Kylian Mbappé is an elite goalscorer with few equals. He’s joined by Ousmane Dembélé (PSG), Inter Milan’s Marcus Thuram, and Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise as frontline options. The “B” side has players like Manchester City’s Rayan Cherki. It would be a shock if anyone can keep France from scoring at least one goal a game, and if they do that, they have a chance to win every time they are on the field.
World Cup Bracket Based on Power Rankings
Projecting out the knockout stage based on the power rankings, the knockouts would go like this.
Round of 32
Top Half
Germany d. Scotland
France d. Sweden
South Korea d. Canada
Netherlands d. Brazil
England d. Colombia
Spain d. Austria
Paraguay d. Bosnia
Belgium d. Czechia
The marquee matchup here would be the Netherlands vs Brazil. Hosts Canada have an intriguing knockout test if they make it this far, while England vs Colombia has star power and heritage.
Bottom Half
Morocco d. Japan
Senegal d. Ecuador
Mexico d. Cape Verde
Norway d. Croatia
Argentina d. Uruguay
Turkey d. Egypt
Switzerland d. Algeria
Morocco vs Japan would be tricky to project, and Ecuador can beat anyone but also lose to anyone. Norway vs Croatia is the new kids on the block vs an established power. South America gets a showdown with Argentina vs Uruguay, while CAF’s fortunes will be tested based on how Egypt and Algeria do.
Round of 16
Top Half
France d. Germany
Netherlands d. South Korea
Spain d. England
Belgium d. Paraguay
France vs Germany and Spain vs England would be must‑see matches. Belgium can find their way into the quarters by virtue of a favorable group.
Bottom Half
Senegal d. Morocco
Norway d. Mexico
Argentina d. Turkey
Portugal d. Switzerland
Norway would be punching their way into the quarterfinals over the final host nation. Argentina continues to have an easy path, and this would set up a Messi vs Ronaldo quarterfinal. Senegal vs Morocco is a rematch of the closely fought AFCON final.
Quarterfinals
France d. Netherlands
Spain d. Belgium
Senegal d. Norway
Argentina d. Portugal
The Netherlands have struggled against the very elite of UEFA for a while, Spain has a clear path to the semifinals, and Senegal could be the second African semifinalist ever after Morocco achieved the same feat in 2022. Messi vs Ronaldo, one last dance, would be a dream for fans of the GOATs.
Semifinals
Argentina d. Senegal
France d. Spain
(Spain d. Senegal for third place)
Argentina’s path to another final is easier than their UEFA counterparts. Many would argue that Spain vs France is the matchup of the two best teams facing off. In the final, France would be slight favorites, but Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina are never to be counted out.
Final
France d. Argentina
Main Photo Credit: Smartframe Images
