The group stage of AFCON 2025 is concluded, while a handful of teams pulled off surprising performances, it was the expected standout teams of the CAF region that have showcased great football in the opening round. Riyad Mahrez, Brahim Diaz, and Mo Salah are among the top scorers already as the tournament now reaches its conclusive phase. It remains an open question which team will lift the trophy on January 18th in Rabat.
Mo Salah’s Egypt The Favorite To Reach The Final
Egypt topped group B ahead of South Africa. Mohamed Salah needed a late goal to defeat Zimbabwe in the opening match for his country, but a penalty against South Africa was the decisive result in the group.. Egypt has played defensively sound football only conceding once in three games. Their final game against Angola they maintained a scoreless draw that left them on 7 points.
Burnley’s Lyle Foster has scored twice for South Africa as wins over Angola and Zimbabwe pushed them into the knockout stage. Zimbabwe, despite not winning a match, managed to score in every game they played and are a bit unlucky to not advance.
Egypt goes on to face Benin, while Cameroon and South Africa is a much anticipated round of 16 clash.
Hosts Morocco Comfortably Reach The Knockout Stage
Morocco enjoy a significant home field advantage for all of their games. The opener saw 60,000 fans enjoy a 2-0 Morocco win where Brahim Diaz notched the opening goal. Ayoub El Kaabi showcased his bicycle kick ability and already has three goals this tournament. A 1-1 draw with Mali was a bit of a disappointment, but didn’t deter Morocco from winning the group in a game that saw two penalty kicks converted. To close out the group stage, it was a comfortable 3-0 win where Diaz was again on the scoresheet against Zambia. Mali was unable to win any of their games. Auxerre’s Lassine Sinayoko has scored both of their goals this tournament. Mali face another team that has struggled in the group stage, Tunisia, in the round of 16, the host nation take on surprise qualifiers Tanzania in Rabat.
Ivory Coast Tops Group in Title Defense Effort
Defending champions Ivory Coast avoided defeat in Group F, as three of four teams advanced into the knockout stage from that group. Amad Diallo from Manchester United scored the only goal in the opening match against Mozambique, he also scored in the draw against Cameroon in a marquee clash. A 3-2 win over Gabon, that left Gabon winless in the group confirmed Ivory Coast’s top position as late goals from Aston Villa’s Evann Guessand and Hoffenheim’s Bazoumana Toure helped the side comeback as winners. Gabon with Denis Bounaga (LAFC), and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was one of the biggest disappointments of the tournament. After reaching the World Cup CAF playoff they ended up conceding seven goals and going 0-0-3 in the group stage of AFCON.
A 3-2 win over Gabon on matchday 2 was enough for Mozambique to reach their first ever AFCON knockout stage. Sporting CP’s Geny Catamo and Santa Clara’s Diogo Calila were two of the standouts who found the scoresheet.
Mozambique will be heavy underdogs against an undefeated Nigeria in the round of 16, Ivory Coast is favored against Burkina Faso, and it’s South Africa vs Cameroon in a dynamic round of 16 clash. Cameroon have looked relatively comfortable across three games.
Algeria Dominate Their Group
Algeria were the most impressive team in the group stage, Riyad Mahrez has three goals, and overall Algeria has scored seven times and conceded just once across three games. Their group stage results were 3-0 over Sudan, 1-0 over Burkina Faso, and 3-1 over Equatorial Guinea where a pair of Bundesliga standouts Ibrahim Maza and Fares Chaibi scored. Algeria faces a strong DR Congo in the first round, before taking on the winner of Nigeria/Mozambique, meaning their path to the final is actually quite challenging.
Burkina Faso was second in the group, lifted by an opening match win over Equatorial Guinea with two goals scored in extra time of the second half, Edmond Tapsoba from Bayer Leverkusen had the match winner in the 98th minute.
Senegal and DR Congo Top Group D
A matchday 2 draw between Senegal and DR Congo saw them share the honors in Group D, both teams looked comfortable when facing lower ranked teams Benin and Botswana. Benin’s win over Botswana was enough to see them into the knockout stage on low expectations. With players like Bayern Munich’s Nicolas Jackson, Senegal remain top contenders, while DR Congo continue to show their talent. It’s DR Congo vs Algeria, and Senegal, who will be heavy favorites against Sudan in the round of 16.
Nigeria Cruises in Group Stage, Tunisia Left Concerned
Group C was expected to be a clash between Nigeria and Tunisia at the top, but it was Nigeria, who failed to reach the World Cup, that looked dominant, and Tunisia that struggled along despite easily qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. Ademola Lookman has scored twice this tournament as Nigeria defeated Tanzania 2-1, Tunisia 3-2 and Uganda 3-1 in the group stage. Nigeria’s defense looks shaky however, the failure to keep a clean sheet and two late goals conceded against Tunisia are a point of concern. With Victor Osimhen (Galatasaray) and so many other top footballers on this side, Nigeria believes they can win the tournament and salve the pain of missing the World Cup.
Tunisia’s 3-1 win over Uganda was expected, but a draw against Tanzania shows their defensively minded brand of football is a bit lacking at times. A loss to Mali on January 3rd in Casablanca would be painful, but not a shock given how both teams have performed thus far. Two draws for Tanzania in this group were enough to surprisingly reach the knockout stage for the first time ever.
Knockout Stage Projections
Round of 16
Mali d. Tunisia
Senegal d. Sudan
Egypt d. Benin
Ivory Coast d. Burkina Faso
South Africa d. Cameroon
Morocco d. Tanzania
Algeria d. DR Congo
Nigeria d. Mozambique
South Africa vs Cameroon is the match of the round, with Algeria vs DR Congo expected to be a battle as well.
Quarterfinals
Senegal d. Mali
Egypt d. Ivory Coast
Morocco d. South Africa
Algeria d. Nigeria
Ivory Coast’s title defense vs Mo Salah’s potential legacy game for Egypt, this would be a fantastic clash, South Africa will try to surprise the hosts, while Algeria vs Nigeria may be the two best teams in the tournament, meeting in the quarterfinals.
Semifinal
Senegal d. Egypt
Algeria d. Morocco
An All-North African final is possible, but Senegal are a solid team, and Algeria have looked better than Morocco thus far.
Final
Algeria d. Senegal
Riyad Mahrez and Algeria have been fantastic so far and could lift the title. A number of compelling matches awaits in the AFCON 2025 knockout stage. Africa’s biggest football stage brings highlight reel moments.
Main Photo Credit: IMAGO / Shengolpixs
