Spring training is two weeks away. What seemed like a slow offseason certainly made the time fly by. While some pitchers have yet to find new homes, some teams will start to figure out what their starting rotations will look like. Teams either have solidified rotations or have open spots available that pitchers will do their best to claim. FanGraphs ranked each rotation across the league, but we will begin with the National League. Below are the projected rotations for Opening Day from the not-so-great to the best of the best.
Projected Starting Rotations Heading into Spring Training
Colorado Rockies
Projected rotation: Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Dakota Hudson
Losing Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John makes the Rockies worse. But their arm trouble isn’t what’s keeping them from being playoff-relevant in 2024. Márquez could appear towards the end of the season as he had his procedure earlier than Senzatela in 2024. Of the new faces Colorado has made to fill some innings, Dakota Hudson is a groundball specialist with what should be an above-average infield defense behind him. Meanwhile, Cal Quantrill isn’t crushable when he struggles, but can go at least six innings on average.
Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner are on the rotation to help prevent the bullpen from being overused.
Washington Nationals
Projected rotation: Josiah Gray, Patrick Corbin, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams
Josiah Gray was an All-Star in 2023, but that was when his ERA was good, and that sunk in the second half. In some ways, Gray took a step back from his 2022 campaign. His home run rate decreased considerably, but he was less effective in striking out batters in two-strike counts. His low put-away rate signals that he’s still searching for that true out pitch he can rely on. The Nationals hope Gray will find more in his game than when they picked him up from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This could very well be Patrick Corbin’s final season with the Nationals, as they are paying $35 million for the final year of his contract. MacKenzie Gore hopes to clean up his delivery as he made it through the year without an arm injury, which is likely the most important part of his development. Jack Irvin and Trevor Williams will be reliable and effective starters as both want to rebound from rough campaigns.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected rotation: Mitch Keller, Martín Pérez, Marco Gonzales, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester
JT Brubaker will not return to the rotation until after Opening Day following Tommy John surgery. Johan Ovideo will miss the season due to the same operation. That leaves Pittsburgh with Mitch Keller, who signed a one-year, $5.4 million contract to avoid arbitration. Keller got off to a hot start last season despite posting a 5.59 ERA in 77 1/3 innings after the All-Star break. Beyond Keller, the rest of the rotation is respectable enough to have the Pirates play more competitively. Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales are the type of pitchers who fit the Pirates’ needs. They both have a veteran presence that will enforce a positive clubhouse influence. Pitchers like Quinn Priester or Luis Ortiz could take the next step to become solid fourth and fifth rotation pieces for the Pirates.
San Diego Padres
Projected rotation: Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila
The Padres had at least eight viable starting pitchers a few years ago. That won’t be the case this upcoming spring. Joe Musgrove will lead the Padres pitching staff. His season ended prematurely as it kept the right-hander from helping San Diego’s last-minute attempt at the postseason. Yu Darvish did show signs of decline last season, going 8-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. The only other assured starter is Michael King, the bait of the Juan Soto deal. King was dominant near the end of the season, posting a 2.23 ERA as a starter. After that, it gets interesting from here; the rest of the rotation is anyone’s guess how the Padres will fill out the fourth and fifth spots.
The remainder of the Soto deal included Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito, and Drew Thorpe; three pitchers will get opportunities to make the rotation come spring training. Vásquez and Brito are also bullpen options, but both should be built up as starters in the coming weeks.
New York Mets
Projected rotation: Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser
Kodai Senga will likely be the Mets ace for 2024. The acquisitions of Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Adrian Houser give the Mets a fully stocked rotation. Plus, there will be depth as well in Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, and José Butto once he recovers from hip surgery. If the price falls on a lower-tier pitcher like Michael Lorenzen or Hyun Jin Ryu, the Mets could be interested. But right now, this will likely be the five who will be in the rotation on Opening Day.
Chicago Cubs
Projected rotation: Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Wicks
Last season, the Cubs saw nine starters help the team through the summer. Currently, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanga, and veteran Kyle Hendricks are four rotation locks. The easy solution for the fifth starter is Jordan Wicks, who made his big league debut last season. The 2021 first-round draft pick debuted with a 4.41 ERA in seven starts. But the other option could be Javier Assad, who threw 94 strikeouts in 109 1/3 innings with a 3.05 ERA.
San Francisco Giants
Projected rotation: Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn, Ross Stripling/Tristan Beck, Jordan Hicks
San Francisco’s rotation will lead with Logan Webb. With Jordan Hicks in the mix, can the Giants rotation find its groove? President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi laid out the team’s ideal starting rotation, with recently signed Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and Keaton Winn set to join Webb. The fifth spot appears to be a toss between Ross Stripling and Tristan Beck. If anything, Beck could be the fifth starter, whereas Stripling could serve as the long reliever, a role he has been accustomed to the last few seasons.
Harrison, Winn, and Beck worked through valuable innings in 2023 as the Giants faced numerous injuries. The young trio will get an extended look to prove themselves, especially with Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray out for the beginning of the year.
Milwaukee Brewers
Projected rotation: Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, Robert Gasser
Former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes is heading into the final season of his contract. Freddy Peralta was healthy again last season and had a 2.81 ERA after the All-Star break. A full season of Peralta would be tremendous for the Brewers, who cut ties with Brandon Woodruff. Peralta and Burnes are poised to be at the front of the rotation if the latter stays past the trade deadline. Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Robert Gasser figure to be quality pitchers to complement Burnes and Peralta.
St. Louis Cardinals
Projected rotation: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz
The Cardinals did enough to improve their depleted starting rotation that saw them struggle last season. By adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, it gives the Cardinals a more competitive edge as they have an experienced, veteran rotation. Miles Mikolas ate innings well, but Steven Matz lost his job in the rotation. Some believe the age and wear and tear can be severe issues for the Cardinals’ rotation in the coming season. St. Louis is counting on them to help bring the team back to contention in the NL Central division.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
Arizona has one of the best dynamic duo pitchers in all of baseball. Zac Gallen is coming off a strong Cy Young campaign, while Merrill Kelly remains a consistent force on the mound. Brandon Pfaadt is the key to where they are going. He arguably pitched some of the biggest games in the Diamondbacks’ postseason when their backs were up against the wall. Adding Eduardo Rodrgíuez will allow Arizona not to rely on some of their younger starters like Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson.
Cincinnati Reds
Projected rotation: Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Frankie Montas, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
The Red starting pitchers ranked 25th in WAR in 2023 and 28th in ERA. However, the Reds’ deep corps of starting pitching options is their strength. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. Plus, prospects like Rhett Lowder and the high ceiling of those options are on the way. Cincinnati has to put it all together for their rotation to complement the offense’s success. The Reds could very well be a dark horse candidate for one of the best rotations in baseball.
Miami Marlins
Projected rotation: Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Eury Perez
The Marlins will be without ace Sandy Alcántara as he is sidelined following Tommy John surgery in October. 14 pitchers made at least one start for the Marlins in 2023, and three relievers appeared in an opening role. Jesús Luzardo has looked well since coming over through a trade. Braxton Garrett went from not making the rotation to the team’s NL Wild Card Series Game 2 starter. He’s been the Marlins’ most reliable starter last season. Eury Perez posted a 2.36 ERA through 11 starts, the lowest for a pitcher in 20 years or younger. Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers will hope to show better performances in 2024 than last year’s hiccups.
Atlanta Braves
Projected rotation: Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Bryce Elder
After trading for Boston Red Sox starter Chris Sale, Fangraphs projections has the third-best starting rotation in all of MLB. Furthermore, they estimate that Atlanta’s starters will be worth 15.6 WAR, the best among any five-man rotation in 2024. Max Fried and Spencer Strider will enter the season as legit NL Cy Young Award candidates. The Braves will use their depth to help Sale stay healthy throughout the season. As for Bryce Elder, the 2023 All-Star seems to be the obvious candidate as the fifth starter. However, general manager Alex Anthopolous explained that he will be among those fighting for the fifth spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, James Paxton
After a disappointing showing from their starting rotation, the Dodgers made the two biggest splashes of the offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the type of frontline starter the Dodgers lacked last season. Then, they traded for Tyler Glasnow, and they are expecting another leap in the development of Bobby Miller. Despite signing Yamamoto and acquiring Glasnow, the Dodgers added more depth. They signed a one-year deal with veteran left-hander James Paxton.
Walker Buehler will be healthy going into the season. But the Dodgers are taking a cautious approach with the right-hander, as Buehler will have an innings restriction this season. It’s routine for someone who is coming off a second major elbow surgery. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin could be options for the Dodgers later in the season, but that is unlikely until they make significant progress.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sánchez
The Dodgers and Phillies are neck-and-neck when it comes to their rotations. After bringing back Aaron Nola, Fangraphs projections have the Phillies as the best starting rotation in all of MLB. Furthermore, they estimate that Philadelphia’s starters will be worth 16.4 WAR, which is just higher than the Dodgers 16.3 WAR. The depth is a welcoming sight, as the Phillies had more than four different pitchers take the ball to start last season.
Photo Credit: © Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
