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Matt Chapman Next Team Odds: Where Will He Sign?

Matt Chapman is still on the free agent market. He has yet to be signed as spring training games get underway. The 30-year-old finished another Gold Glove Award season with a 4.4 bWAR, 17 home runs, 54 RBI and a 108 OPS+. His destination is worth paying attention to as he has been stellar at the hot corner with the Oakland Athletics from 2017 to 2021. Chapman has 155 home runs with 426 RBI and a career bWAR 31.2. In 2023, Chapman finished the final year of a two-year deal with Toronto, worth $12.5 million annually.

Many teams have finished their major shopping for the winter by now. It makes it less unlikely for Chapman to receive the kind of compensation he is after. He will have a home in 2024, but it could be a one-year deal to reset his market again for next winter. The same could very well happen to Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery if they can’t find the lengthy nine-figure contract they are pursuing.

Here is a breakdown of where Chapman will play next, with hypothetical odds on the next club to land the third baseman.

Matt Chapman‘s Next Team Odds

Seattle Mariners +250 28.6%
Toronto Blue Jays +350 22.2%
San Francisco Giants +450 18.2%
Chicago Cubs +700 12.5%
New York Mets +2000 4.8%
Los Angeles Angels +2500 3.9%
Other +900 10.0%

Toronto has +350 odds to reunite with Chapman. They also have +1400 World Series odds, ranking eighth in the league.

Will There Be A Toronto/Chapman Reunion?

As the offseason went on, the Blue Jays have seen their odds of keeping the veteran third baseman dwindle. The Seattle Mariners have the best odds to land Chapman. They did discuss the possibility of signing him, but it wasn’t clear if those discussions could be due diligence explorations from the front office. Or, if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto might have reached out to Chapman’s camp about a potential deal.

Signing Chapman could bring another shakeup to the infield picture, pushing Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore into backup roles. Adding a multi-time Gold and Platinum Glove winner like Chapman would go a long way to prevent runs from opposing teams.

Right now, besides from those two teams, the San Francisco Giants (+450), Chicago Cubs (+700), New York Mets (+2000), and Los Angeles Angels (+2500) could be possible landing spots.

Final Thoughts

In an interesting offseason, it’ll be worth the attention to see if any clubs step up and sign the two-time Platinum Gold Glove winner. Chapman is coming off a mixed-bag campaign with Toronto, helping the Blue Jays reach another postseason berth in 2023. He got off to a hot start that won him the American League Player of the Month Award for April. Afterward, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 over 467 plate appearances from May 1 to the end of the regular season. A finger injury hampered Chapman for months despite ending up with a 110 wRC+. His shaky performance last year might be the reason why he has been on the open market for so long.

Main Photo Credit: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports


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