Yesterday was a sweaty day of baseball if there ever was one. But, for the first time since the All-Star break, we are back in the win column. Let’s see if we can get the ball rolling and start a streak as we look at our baseball bets for July 17th.
Baseball Bets for July 17th
The Headliner: Rays @ Rangers
In a matchup of two American League teams leading their respective divisions, the Tampa Bay Rays travel to Arlington to take on the Texas Rangers. On the mound for the Rays will be Shane McClanahan. In 17 starts this season, McClanahan has a 2.53 ERA across 96 innings with 101 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.23 ERA across 39 innings with 33 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. In nine road starts, McClanahan has a 3.17 ERA across 48 1/3 innings with 45 strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. McClanahan has faced the Rangers once this season, at home. In that start, he allowed three runs (all earned), in seven innings on four hits, one walk, and struck out five.
The Rangers will counter with Dane Dunning. In 20 games this season (12 starts), Dunning has a 2.84 ERA across 92 innings with 59 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he carries a 3.68 ERA across 44 innings with 27 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP. Dunning’s performance has not differed much whether at home or on the road. In nine home games (five starts), he has a 2.89 ERA. This comes in 43 2/3 innings with 25 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. This game could feature the pitching matchup of the week. Expect the visitors to take game one of this three-game series.
The Play: Rays ML (-122) – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: McClanahan Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) – 0.5U
Only Here for the Pitching: Twins @ Mariners
In a battle of teams that may be on the outside looking in come October, the Minnesota Twins take on the Seattle Mariners. On the mound for the Twins will be Sonny Gray. In 18 starts, Gray has a 2.89 ERA across 99 2/3 innings with 101 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries a 4.12 ERA across 39 1/3 innings with 32 strikeouts and a 1.37 WHIP. Gray has made eight road starts this season. In those starts, he carries a 2.74 ERA across 42 2/3 innings with 38 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. These teams have very similar profiles offensively. The Twins lead baseball in offensive strikeouts, while the Mariners are in second. They are also tied for 24th in OBP.
The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound. In 18 starts, Gilbert has a 3.66 ERA across 108 1/3 innings with 106 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.05 ERA across 44 1/3 innings with 33 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP. He has been worse in home starts this season, however. Through seven starts at home, Gilbert has a 4.29 ERA across 42 innings with 42 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. While the Twins do have trouble accruing baserunners, they do have guys in their lineup capable of going yard at any time. Gilbert’s flyball rate of 27.9% could come into play in tonight’s matchup. But, the better team should still come out ahead in the end.
The Play: Mariners ML (-130) – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Byron Buxton Over 0.5 HR (+350) – 0.5U
Overperforming vs Underperforming: Marlins @ Cardinals
The Miami Marlins travel to Missouri to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. On the mound for the Marlins will be lefty Jesus Luzardo. In 19 starts, Luzardo has a 3.29 ERA across 109 1/3 innings with 129 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 2.11 ERA across 42 2/3 innings with 51 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP. Luzardo has not been good on the road. In eight road starts, he has a 4.64 ERA across 42 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. He has one start against the Cardinals this season, which came in Miami. In that start, he allowed no runs on five hits, two walks, one hit batter and struck out eight.
The Cardinals counter with Miles Mikolas. In 20 starts, Mikolas has a 4.12 ERA across 115 2/3 innings with 80 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.83 ERA across 41 innings with 20 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP. Mikolas has been abysmal at home. In nine home starts, he carries a 5.01 ERA across 50 1/3 innings with 41 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Mikolas has one start against the Marlins this season. In that start, he allowed four runs (all earned) in 6 1/3 innings on four hits, two walks, and struck out two batters. While these teams’ records may each be the opposite of what you would expect from their respective rosters, expect tonight’s outcome to reflect their current records.
The Play: Marlins ML (-105) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Shane McClanahan, Dane Dunning, Sonny Gray, Logan Gilbert, Byron Buxton, Jesus Luzardo, Miles Mikolas
