Willson Contreras began his time in St. Louis with big shoes to fill. The retirement of 19-year veteran Yadier Molina left a vacancy at the catcher position and Contreras was chosen to be the replacement. He signed a five-year, $87.5 million contract last offseason that was well-deserved. The three-time All-Star posted a 114 OPS+ in his first seven seasons with the division-rival Chicago Cubs. However, Contreras has scuffled through the first two and a half months of the 2023 campaign. He is hitting just above the Mendoza line and was relegated to a DH-only role at one point. Despite his slump, there is more to Willson Contreras’ performance beneath the surface.
Willson Contreras has four hits in his last 55 ABs.
It’s a good thing the #STLCards instilled a lot of confidence in him early this season…. pic.twitter.com/grbCmiuHAO
— STL Sports Central (@stlsportscntrl) June 13, 2023
Meeting Expectations
When Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals, he inherited high expectations. Molina had struggled at the plate in recent years, emphasizing the need for a good-hitting catcher. Cardinals fans had been well aware of the former Cubs catcher’s excellence with the bat. Thus, Willson Contreras’ slump came as a disappointment to many. It is not Contreras, though, that has failed to meet expectations. It is the baseball itself.
Contreras has been the victim of bad luck this year. He is hitting the ball as hard as ever with an average exit velocity of 91.6 MPH, the second-highest mark of his career. His strikeout and walk percentages are in line with his lifetime averages. The issue occurs after the ball leaves the bat. Contreras’ 2023 xwOBA of .347 is actually higher than his career .342 mark. This stat factors in quality-of-contact metrics and removes the influence of defense. In other words, it is an expected stat, not a result. His wOBA is far lower at a .291 clip. wOBA is the result-oriented stat that is affected by defense. Contreras is hitting the ball well but the results are not quite there yet.
This difference in xwOBA and wOBA is no small discrepancy. Among all qualified hitters, Contreras’ 0.056 difference ranks fifth largest. Given enough time, Contreras should find more luck on batted balls and his offensive production should increase to a level that closely resembles his Cubs tenure.
Defensive Struggles
In early May, the Cardinals announced that Contreras would be a DH exclusively. Merely one month into his five-year contract, the Cardinals already had moved Contreras off his primary position. Regarding the perplexing situation, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak stated “With this, we’ve noticed a lot of puzzling trends we know we need to fix. … We just decided to do it head on, put it out there.” Mozeliak’s comments suggest this move is a result of the pitching staff’s struggles with Contreras.
There may be some validity to the Cardinals’ concerns with Contreras behind the plate. His catcher’s ERA of 4.84 is significantly higher than backup Andrew Knizner’s 4.22. This could be because pitchers are more comfortable throwing to Knizner, as he has been in St. Louis longer. In this case, the only way to improve is through rapport that can’t be developed from the DH spot.
Although Contreras’ catching hiatus was brief, it cast further doubt on his ability to contribute. Contreras does, in fact, have defensive attributes that suggest he is the Cardinals’ best option at catcher. Contreras’ framing metrics grade out better than Knizner’s. Additionally, Contreras throws out 31 percent of potential base stealers, far better than Knizner’s 12 percent. These stats are a more direct reflection of Contreras’ performance than his catcher’s ERA, which incorporates many other factors. Intuitively, one would think that a catcher who frames better and throws better would naturally prevent more runs. Once again, the high catcher’s ERA could be the result of intangibles. Nevertheless, the defensive metrics favor Contreras.
Can Willson Contreras Break Out of His Slump?
It is not time to give up on Contreras yet. He has had bad luck on balls in play and his struggles have been magnified by an underperforming team. Given enough time, Contreras’ offensive production should naturally increase and he will become more acclimated to the pitching staff.
One does not have to look far to find an example of a superstar struggling to begin the season. During 2018 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .208 on June 3. That same year, he finished sixth in NL MVP voting and won a Silver Slugger. Perhaps Contreras can draw on his current teammate Goldschmidt in order to have a resurgence of his own.
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned: Willson Contreras, Yadier Molina, Andrew Knizner, Paul Goldschmidt
