The Boston Red Sox making a late run in last night’s game did not do us well despite going 3-3 on the day. Now down 1.34 units on the week, we keep our heads down and keep moving forward to get back on the winning path. Here are our picks for baseball bets on July 7th.
Baseball Bets for July 7th
The Headliner: Braves @ Rays
The Atlanta Braves travel south to take on the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. For game one, the Braves will have former Rays pitcher Charlie Morton on the mound. Through 16 starts this season, Morton has a 3.57 ERA across 90.2 innings with 105 strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.52 ERA across 38.1 innings with 51 strikeouts and a 1.51 WHIP. Morton has made half of his starts on the road, where he has pitched better this season. In those road starts, he has a 3.06 ERA across 47 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 1.47 WHIP. Morton has struggled with control this season as he has walked batters at a 10% clip, including walking three or more batters in four of his last five starts. The Rays rank 11th as a team in walks taken with 293.
On the mound for the Rays will be Tyler Glasnow. In seven starts this season, Glasnow has a 4.50 ERA across 36 innings with 56 strikeouts and a 1.33 WHIP. He has struggled in his last three starts. In 15 innings over that stretch, he has a 6.00 ERA with 30 strikeouts and a 1.40 WHIP. Despite his ERA, he does carry a FIP of 3.68, almost a full run lower. As has been the case throughout his career, it has been the long ball that has proven detrimental to his ERA thus far. Glasnow has given up six home runs for a HR/9 of 1.5. Coming off of two consecutive starts of double-digit strikeouts, expect a decrease in K’s from Glasnow in today’s contest as the Braves are the sixth-best team at avoiding strikeouts with only 698 on the season, or, 8.12 a game.
The Play: Braves ML – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Glasnow Under 7.5 strikeouts – 0.5U
The Battle of The Budgets: Mets @ Padres
The New York Mets head to California to take on the San Diego Padres in the Battle of the Budgets. On the mound for the Mets will be Justin Verlander. In 11 starts this season, Verlander has a 3.66 ERA across 64 innings with 55 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.69 ERA across 39 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.36 WHIP. Verlander has proven detrimental to the Mets’ success in his road starts. In five road starts, Verlander holds a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings with 22 strikeouts and a 1.44 WHIP. This season, Verlander is giving up hard hits at a rate higher than ever before of 46.1% with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph. That does not bode well for his success in tonight’s start against a powerful Padres lineup.
On the mound for the Padres will be a veteran of their own, Yu Darvish. Through 14 starts this season, Darvish holds a 4.84 ERA across 80 innings with 85 strikeouts and a 1.23 WHIP. Darvish has struggled over his last seven starts as he has a 6.75 ERA in that span across 37.1 innings with 38 strikeouts and a 1.39 WHIP. Darvish has one start against the Mets this season. He pitched 6.1 innings allowing five runs (all earned) on six hits, one walk, and one hit batter with five strikeouts. As was the case for Glasnow above, Darvish too has been the victim of poor defensive help as his FIP sits at 3.88. Despite his inconsistency this season, Darvish has pitched well in home games. He has a 3.64 ERA in seven home starts across 42 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP.
The Play: Padres ML – 1U
Bonus Player Prop: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits – 0.5U
The Battle for Los Angeles: Angels @ Dodgers
I am starting to sense a theme here. In a Battle for Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Angels travel across town to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Taking the bump for the Angels will be Griffin Canning. In 13 starts this season, Canning has a 4.29 ERA across 71.1 innings with 71 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.00 ERA across 42 innings with 46 strikeouts and a 0.93 WHIP. Griffin has been much better on the road this season than at home. In seven road starts, he has a 3.63 ERA across 39.2 innings with 36 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. This includes a road start against the Colorado Rockies in which he allowed no earned runs and only four hits. While he is allowing a ton of hard-hit balls (46.2%), he is also generating more ground balls than ever (46.5%). This has proven somewhat successful as his defense has helped him with his FIP sitting at 4.54.
The Dodgers will be sending Tony Gonsolin to the mound. In 12 starts this season, Gonsolin has a 3.69 ERA across 61 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 5.35 ERA across 37 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Gonsolin has actually been worse at home. In six home starts, Gonsolin has a 4.18 ERA across 32.1 innings with 27 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. Gonsolin has struggled with control this season. He carries a walk rate of 9.7% and a BB/9 of 3.7, both are the second-highest totals of his career. Gonsolin’s defense has bailed him out, also, as his FIP stands at 4.49 for the season. The last of our baseball bets for July 7th will take us deep into the night.
The Play: Dodgers ML – 0.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Game First Five Over 5.5 – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Justin Verlander, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr., Griffin Canning, Tony Gonsolin
