Criticism of England and France is swirling in the media and among fans as the third and final group stage match for both teams has arrived, however both teams can secure their place in the knockout stages on Tuesday, while Austria vs Netherlands and Denmark and Serbia are the other clashes on the match card. Our panelists offer their predictions.
France vs Poland (Tuesday in Dortmund)
Steen Kirby: The injury to Kylian Mbappe, and the struggles of the French attack through two matches are quite a concern for the co-tournament favorites. Still, a game against a winless Poland team might be just the medicine the team in blue and white needs to get going ahead of the knockout stages. France needs to find chemistry in attack and finish their chances better, the defence has been something comfortable thus far though. Poland has looked toothless with veteran Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski limited through two games. A shock win, or even a draw, would restore Polish pride a bit, but since the team in red and white is headed home, France should top the group barring a catastrophe. Prediction: France 3 Poland 0
Ben Gray: France are already, more or less, through to the knockout stages, while Poland will be heading for home after this clash, so there’s very little on the line at Westfalenstadion.
No Frenchman has actually scored at this European Championships just yet, that’ll surely change soon, with an own goal seeing les Bleus beat Austria 1-0 in their opener, before they battled to an uninspiring, easily forgettable goalless draw with Netherlands in Leipzig on Friday night.
Didier Deschamps side have topped their group at all five major tournaments since his appointment in 2012, currently second but still in a decent position to maintain that record, although they’ll have to claim victory here to achieve this. As for Poland, in a format where only eight of the 24-team field are eliminated after the group phase, it’s pretty embarrassing that they’ve been dumped out with a game to go.
The Eagles currently have no points on the board, beaten 2-1 by Netherlands and then 3-1 by Austria at Olympiastadion on Friday, with Krzysztof Piątek firing home an equaliser on the half hour mark in Berlin, only for two second half goals to condemn them to defeat.
This loss means Michał Probierz’s side are guaranteed to finish bottom of Group D, with the Whites therefore exiting in the group phase for the seventh time at nine major tournaments in which they’ve featured. Despite this, never before have Poland lost all three of their games at a major tournament, their worst-performances coming in 2008 and 2021 when they claimed just a solitary point, in danger of crashing out pointless this time considering who they’re up against here.
Poland’s most-recent win over France came in 1982, with les Bleus victorious in four of eight encounters since, most-recently prevailing 3-1 at Al-Thumama Stadium during the most-recent World Cup knockout stages, with another French victory very likely in Dortmund. Prediction: France 2 Poland 0
Netherlands vs Austria (Tuesday in Berlin)
Steen: Ronald Koeman vs Ralf Rangnick is the tactical matchup that many students of the game are looking forward to on Tuesday. The Netherlands played the game against France with the intent of moving to four points (after defeating Poland) and they got the result they needed, with just a VAR call the difference keep them from victory. Manchester City’s Nathan Ake and Liverpool’s Virgil Van Dijik, along with the young new goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen from Brighton have kept them very defensively sound, and the Oranje have made a patchwork midfield and attack look stout enough to perhaps top the group.
Marcel Sabitzer (Dortmund) and Austria were respectable against France and then defeated Poland to (likely) reach the knockout stages, they only need a draw to do so. While Austria don’t score a lot, this is another team where it’s defence first, this may not be the most positive game, but given a draw suits both teams that looks to be in the cards. Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Ben: Both of these two appear knockout stages-bound but, considering they could each end the night first, second or third, there’s still plenty to play for at Olympiastadion.
Netherlands kick off top of the table, first coming from a goal down to beat Poland 2-1, with Wout Weghorst snatching victory with a late strike off the bench.
Then, on Friday night, Oranje held France to a credible goalless draw in Leipzig, but it could have been even better, with Xavi Simons having a late winner disallowed because Denzel Dumfries was in an offside position, adjudged to be interfering with play.
Nevertheless, Ronald Koeman’s side are still all but through to the round of 16, needing just a draw in Berlin to be sure of a top two finish, probably requiring a victory, potentially an emphatic one, to cling onto top spot. Well, that’ll be easier said than done, as Austria come into this one full of confidence.
Das Team were narrowly beaten 1-0 by France in their opener, Maximilian Wöber the scorer of an unfortunate own goal, bouncing back with an emphatic 3-1 victory over Poland, in which Gernot Trauner, Christoph Baumgartner and Marko Arnautović were the scorers.
Even more observers than before are tipping Ralf Rangnick’s team as dark horses to make a deep run at this tournament, even though Austria are not yet assured of a place in the last 16, although a draw will do that, while their tally of three points may already be enough, we don’t know yet.
Holland have won each of their last seven meetings with Austria, dating back to 1990, most-recently prevailing 2-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena during Euro 2020, but a draw that would be mutually beneficial for both seems the most-likely outcome in the German capital. Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Denmark vs Serbia (Tuesday in Munich)
Steen: Two draws have left Denmark still adrift in terms of the knockout stages, but the Danish side hasn’t performed badly in Euro 2024, Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile Hojberg’s and Manchester United’s Christian Eriksen are clear leaders for them, while Dusan Tadic (Fenerbache) has led Serbia to a draw and a credible loss to England that would put Serbia in the knockouts if they win. I don’t see Serbia scoring enough to do that, Denmark should limit their chances and battle it out for another draw. Prediction: 1-1 Draw
Ben: It’s very much all to play for in Munich, with both teams knowing that victory will take them through to the knockout stages.
Denmark have played out a pair of 1-1 draws at this tournament so far, first held by Slovenia, despite taking the lead through Christian Eriksen’s fairytale goal.
Then, on Thursday, de Rød-Hvide played out a stalemate with England that, in truth, lacked quality throughout, albeit Morten Hjulmand’s superb long-range strike at Waldstadion is very much contrary to this assertion.
Despite not yet claiming a victory, Kasper Hjulmand’s side are second in Group C, knowing a draw will see them retain that position, unless Slovenia beat England simultaneously, while defeat will almost certainly condemn the Danes to elimination. That’s because Serbia, who kick off bottom, would leapfrog their opponents with victory in Bavaria, and they simply have to win or their Euros debut will end prematurely.
Dragan Stojković’s side began their campaign with a 1-0 defeat to England in Gelsenkirchen, before seemingly set for déjà vu, a goal down to Slovenia four days later, until, with the final action of the afternoon, Luka Jović’s header pinched a pivotal point at the death.
This keeps the Eagles’ fate in their own hands, as victory here would take their tally to four points, which would be enough to see Serbia sneak into the knockout phase, even if the other result saw them slip into third.
Denmark have won all three previous encounters with Serbia, most-recently prevailing 3-0 in a friendly at Parken two years ago; Joakim Mæhle, Jesper Lindstrøm and Christian Eriksen the scorers that afternoon. This time, in a significantly more high-stakes fixture, we’re forecasting a very tense score draw at Allianz Arena. Prediction: 1-1 Draw
England vs Slovenia (Tuesday in Cologne)
Steen: England are first in the group on points, but dead last in “vibes”, this team of expensive Premier League and European talent have managed just two goals, and sit on four points through two matches against the lower ranked Serbia and Denmark, now it’s upset minded Slovenia on the match card, and Slovenia still are dreaming of reaching the knockout stages. Manager Gareth Southgate is under pressure to get the England attack, midfield, and lineup working on Tuesday against a side that England should be able to defeat. While Harry Kane scored England’s only goal against Denmark, the striker was subbed off in the second half due to severe fatigue, players like Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace) and Anthony Gordon (Newcastle) may now feature in this side if Southgate decides to make changes to try to invigorate the Three Lions.
Defensively sound Slovenia have managed 2 draws and even a third could see them through to the knockouts, while a win would certainly do the same. This Slovenia side is a bit lacking in talent, and England despite the issues scoring, have not conceded easily for their part with Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace) and Jordan Pickford (Everton) playing well. I don’t expect Southgate to get England to play that much better, but beating Slovenia still looks to be in the cards. Prediction: England 1 Slovenia 0
Ben: England have been widely-criticised for their lacklustre displays at this tournament even though, on the face of it, they’re top of Group C, unbeaten, through to the knockout stages and in pole position to retain first place.
In their tournament opener, the Three Lions battled to a 1-0 victory over Serbia in Gelsenkirchen with Jude Bellingham, who else, heading home the only goal of the night.
Four days later, they took the lead again, this time Harry Kane poking his team in front against Denmark, but once again, Gareth Southgate’s side sat-back, invited pressure only this time paying the price, with the Danes equalising from long-range soon after, before a turgid, uneventful second 45 was played out at Waldstadion, one that nobody will want to remember. Supporters are concerned that England look incoherent, tactically inept and lifeless, and will be eliminated as soon as they come up against high-level opposition.
For now, the Three Lions require a victory at RheinEnergieStadion to make sure of finishing first, thereby facing a third-place finisher on Sunday night, while a draw would also achieve this, unless Denmark beat Serbia by two clear goals 323 miles away simultaneously.
As for Slovenia, this may be must win, after they came so close to an historic victory last time out.
Matjaž Kek’s team battled to a 1-1 draw with Denmark on matchday one, thanks to a spectacular equaliser from Erik Janža.
Then, Žan Karničnik’s goal in Munich had them in front against Serbia, on course for a first-ever Euros victory, only to concede from a corner in the 96th minute, which turned out to be the last action of the afternoon.
So, from the brink of being through, Slovenia are now third with just two points to their name, certainly needing something from this fixture to progress, while only a victory will see them guarantee passage into the knockout phase of a major tournament for the very first time.
England have won five of six meetings with Slovenia, drawing the other, most-notably winning 1-0 in Port Elizabeth when the pair clashed at the 2010 World Cup, this exactly 14 years and two days ago. Given what both have produced at this tournament, another low-scoring affair seems likely, with England desperate for a morale-boosting victory in Köln. Prediction: England 1 Slovenia 0
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