Coronavirus restrictions are still in place across large parts of Northern England. The winter, and a potential second wave of the virus, are likely to ensure reduced capacities at Premier League grounds throughout 2020. But which teams are likely to be most disadvantaged by playing behind closed doors? And, who will empty Premier League stadiums benefit?
Who Will Benefit From Behind Closed Doors Matches in the Premier League?
Empty Premier League Stadiums Reduce Home Team Bias
Studies show that playing behind closed doors benefits away teams. Referees make fewer biased decisions when they are not coerced by a baying home crowd.
‘Impect Analytics’ performed research on the effect of home crowds following the renewal of the Bundesliga. Their findings were reported in the New York Times by Rory Smith.
A spokesperson for Impect confirmed that: “For the first time in soccer history, it has appeared, at times, to be easier to be playing on the road.”
This view was backed by analysts Gracenote. A source for the group noted: “home teams scored fewer goals than they had in full stadiums (1.74 to 1.43 per game), leading to a decline in goal scoring overall.”
Teams that perform better in front of vociferous support are most disadvantaged by continued restrictions on crowds. In the Premier League, what impact might this have?
Looking at last seasons stats for the 17 teams that remain in the Premier League makes interesting reading. It suggests that Aston Villa, Tottenham and Arsenal have most to fear from empty stadia.
In the 2019-20 season, Aston Villa secured 69% of their points at Villa Park. Given that Villa only avoided relegation on matchday 38, no home fans for the 2020/21 season will be concerning.
Tottenham and Arsenal share similar worries. Spurs gained 39 of their 59 points at home last season (66%). Meanwhile, Arsenal took 36 out of their 56 points haul (64%) at the Emirates. A tilt at the top four for both North London rivals could, therefore, be hampered.
Happy Away Days
Conversely, clubs such as Southampton, Burnley and Crystal Palace could prosper in behind closed doors matches. In the 2019/20 season, Southampton only accrued 40% of their 52 points at St Mary’s.
Burnley picked up a more respectable 52% of their points at Turf Moor. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace fared slightly better in games at Selhurst Park, picking up 53% of their seasonal points tally in the process.
Of the big six clubs. Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City have the most to gain from the status quo.
Chelsea only took 55% of their Premier League points at Stamford Bridge. A figure marginally bettered by Manchester United (56%) and Manchester City (58%).
Likely Return of Crowds
Government advice currently states that limited crowds may be allowed in football grounds from October. However, even in this scenario, it is unlikely that stadiums will be more than 30% full.
Meaning that teams that rely most on home town advantage could be in for a difficult season. Football fans in Birmingham and North London will be anxiously awaiting the return of crowds. Those in Manchester, among others, may well be happy to remain patient.
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