Sunday evening, Western Conference WNBA action as the New York Liberty invade the Chase Center to tangle with the Golden State Valkyries. The Liberty are just 1-2 on this trip, but 12-7 on the year overall. They are off a 99-88 road loss to Seattle. Golden State is off of back-to-back home win over Atlanta to move to 12-7 on the year. The Valkyries won in New York 87-80 earlier in the year. Can the Liberty get revenge? Read on to see my Liberty vs Valkyries prediction.
Liberty vs Valkyries: Prediction, Preview, and Odds for June 28
Current Odds
Golden State -1; Over/Under 163.5
New York Liberty Team Preview
New York enters at 12-7 after a 99-88 loss in Seattle, a game where defensive breakdowns and cold stretches from deep proved costly. The Liberty shot 45 percent overall but only 28 percent from three, and they struggled to contain Seattle’s interior scoring. Jonquel Jones led with 26 points and eight rebounds, while Leonie Fiebich added 19. Sabrina Ionescu chipped in 14, but turnovers and missed rotations hurt late. New York has dropped three of its last four and sits just 1-2 on this road trip. With the Commissioner’s Cup Final looming, focus becomes a major factor.
The Liberty continue to average 88.9 points per game on 46.2 percent shooting, including 35.7 percent from deep. Their two‑point accuracy remains strong at 54.6 percent, and they generate 21.0 assists per game. Rebounding has been a strength, with 35.1 boards per contest, and they shoot an elite 85.0 percent from the line. Defensively, New York allows 83.9 points per game and holds opponents to 43.8 percent shooting. Their perimeter defense has been solid, allowing just 32.5 percent from three, but recent lapses have created problems. Maintaining consistency has been the challenge during this stretch.
Breanna Stewart leads the team at 19.4 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, though she missed the Seattle matchup. Jones continues her strong season at 14.8 points and 8.8 rebounds while shooting 49.7 percent. Fiebich has emerged as a reliable floor spacer at 10.1 points on 43.4 percent shooting from deep. Ionescu adds 9.6 points and 3.9 assists, and Marine Johannes contributes 10.1 points with strong perimeter shooting. Satou Sabally remains questionable, and her availability could shift the rotation. New York’s depth has been tested, but their top-end talent remains strong.
For New York to win, they must tighten their defensive communication and avoid the slow starts that have plagued recent games. The Liberty need cleaner ball movement to generate rhythm threes and reduce the turnovers that fueled Seattle’s runs. Their interior defense must also hold firm against a Golden State team that thrives on second‑chance opportunities. New York must control pace, limit transition breakdowns, and stay disciplined on closeouts. If they maintain focus and avoid looking ahead to the Commissioner’s Cup Final, they have the tools to respond.
Golden State Valkyries Team Preview
Golden State enters at 12-7 after sweeping Atlanta at home, winning 77-66 and 78-75 in two physical, defensive‑driven games. The Valkyries held Atlanta to 34 percent shooting in the second matchup and forced 14 turnovers. Gabby Williams scored 16 points, while Veronica Burton added 10 with steady playmaking. Kayla Thornton struggled from the field, but the bench delivered timely scoring. Golden State has now won six of its last eight and continues to build confidence behind its improving defense. Their earlier 87-70 win in New York adds another layer of momentum heading into this rematch.
Golden State averages 83.1 points per game on 41.0 percent shooting, including 35.4 percent from deep. They attempt 31.1 threes per game, the most in the league, and rely heavily on perimeter volume. Their interior scoring sits at 45.5 percent, and they generate 33.7 rebounds per game. Defensively, the Valkyries allow only 78.4 points per game and hold opponents to 42.4 percent shooting. Their perimeter defense has been strong, allowing just 36.6 percent from deep, and they force 10.7 turnovers per game. Golden State’s defensive improvement has been a major factor in their recent surge.
Williams leads the team at 16.3 points per game while shooting 42.3 percent. Burton adds 12.4 points and 5.3 assists, and Janelle Salaün contributes 12.6 points with strong three‑point shooting. Thornton provides 8.3 points and 5.3 rebounds, and Kiah Stokes anchors the interior with 4.9 rebounds per game. Cecilia Zandalasini adds scoring punch off the bench at 8.0 points per game. Golden State’s rotation remains balanced, with multiple players capable of hitting timely threes and defending multiple positions.
For Golden State to win, they must control the perimeter and force New York into contested jumpers. Their defensive rotations must stay sharp against a Liberty team that thrives on ball movement and spacing. Golden State also needs consistent rebounding to limit second‑chance points and create transition opportunities. Offensively, they must maintain their three‑point volume while avoiding long droughts. If they dictate tempo and keep New York uncomfortable, the Valkyries can extend their strong run and secure another statement win.
Liberty vs Valkyries Predictions
Golden State -1 carries strong value because their recent form has been steadier, and their confidence continues to build. The Valkyries have taken six of their last eight, and their defensive intensity has tightened noticeably. New York enters this matchup on a rough stretch, and the looming Commissioner’s Cup Final creates a natural distraction. Travel also works against the Liberty, who must immediately return home for a marquee game. Golden State’s home-court energy and ability to dictate the tempo give them a slight but meaningful edge. With momentum on their side, the Valkyries are positioned well.
The Under 163.5 fits the rhythm these teams often fall into when Golden State controls the pace. Their defensive improvement has slowed opponents’ scoring, and their games frequently feature long half‑court possessions. New York has also struggled to maintain a consistent offensive flow on this road trip, which can drag down totals. Golden State’s perimeter pressure forces opponents into tougher looks, and that usually reduces efficiency. The Liberty’s recent shooting volatility adds another layer, favoring a lower total. With both teams capable of grinding stretches, the Under aligns with the expected style.
This matchup projects as a controlled, defensive‑leaning game where execution matters more than pace. Golden State’s confidence should help them settle early, while New York may take time to find rhythm. The Liberty’s upcoming championship game could influence rotations and urgency, especially if the contest becomes tight late. Golden State’s recent form suggests they can capitalize on any hesitation. Combined with the likelihood of slower possessions and fewer clean perimeter looks, the side and total complement each other well. The Valkyries -1 and the Under 163.5 form a logical pairing.
Final Predictions: Golden State -1 & Under 163.5
Photo Credit: Robert Edwards, Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
