A little WNBA Interconference action this evening as the New York Liberty invade Climate Pledge Arena to battle the Seattle Storm. The Liberty come in off a huge 87-76 road win over Las Vegas to improve to 12-6 on the year. The Storm are tied with the Connecticut Sun for the worst record in the league at 3-15, and they are off a tough 112-110 OT loss to the Dallas Wings at home. Can the Storm make a game out of this one? Read on to see my Liberty vs Storm prediction.
Liberty vs Storm: Prediction, Preview, and Odds for June 25
Current Odds
Liberty -12.5; Over/Under 168.5
New York Liberty Preview
New York enters this matchup with renewed momentum after an impressive road win over Las Vegas, a game they controlled with timely shooting and strong second‑half execution. Breanna Stewart scored 20 points and delivered a dominant stretch after halftime, while Sabrina Ionescu added 16 points and 10 rebounds. Jonquel Jones chipped in 14 points, and Leonie Fiebich knocked down four threes to help stretch the floor. The Liberty shot 46% overall and 42% from deep, breaking a brief two‑game slide and improving to 12-6 on the season.
Offensively, New York averages 88.9 points per game and shoots 46.3 percent from the field. Stewart leads the team at 19.4 points per game, while Jones adds 14.2 with elite efficiency inside. Marine Johannes contributes 10.3 points per game and remains a key perimeter threat. The Liberty also shoot 36.3% from three and 85.8% from the free-throw line, ranking among the league’s most efficient scoring teams. Their ball movement remains strong at 21.0 assists per game, and their spacing continues to create clean looks across the roster.
Defensively, New York allows 83.1 points per game and holds opponents to 43.3% shooting. The Liberty’s interior defense has been steady, limiting teams to 49.6% on twos, and they rebound well at 35.5 boards per game. Stewart and Jones anchor the paint, while Ionescu and Johannes help control the perimeter. The Liberty also force 10.9 turnovers per game. Their biggest challenge in this matchup will be containing Seattle’s young scorers, who have shown flashes of explosive production despite the team’s record.
For New York to secure another road win, it must maintain defensive discipline and avoid giving Seattle rhythm threes. The Liberty’s offense should generate consistent scoring, but they must also control the glass and limit transition opportunities. If the Liberty dictate pace and continue their strong perimeter shooting, they can build early separation and avoid the late‑game swings that have hurt them in recent losses. A focused effort should keep them in control throughout.
Seattle Storm Preview
Seattle is off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Dallas, a game where they pushed a playoff contender to the limit. Dominique Malonga delivered a career‑best 37 points and 12 rebounds, while Natisha Hiedeman added 21 points and 11 assists. Malonga became the youngest player in league history to reach 200 career field goals at just 20 years old. Awa Fam scored 18 and hit four threes, and Zia Cooke added 18 off the bench. Seattle shot 51% from the field and 45% from deep but couldn’t close out late. The Storm have now dropped 11 straight games, though their young core continues to show growth.
Offensively, Seattle averages 78.8 points per game and shoots 41.3% from the field. Hiedeman leads the team at 15.6 points per game and shoots 39.4% from three, while Malonga adds 17.3 points with strong interior finishing. Fam contributes 10.9 points per game and provides valuable spacing. The Storm shoot 33.8% from deep and average 18.6 assists per game. Their biggest offensive issue has been turnovers, as they give the ball away 13.8 times per game and often struggle with late‑clock execution.
Defensively, Seattle allows 85.9 points per game and gives up 42.8 percent shooting. The Storm’s 3‑point defense has been inconsistent, allowing opponents to hit 30.5% from deep, and they surrender 36.7 rebounds per game. Malonga and Fam help on the glass, but the Storm often struggle with second‑chance points. Injuries have also impacted their rotations, with Jade Melbourne and Jordan Horston both missing the last game and listed as questionable. Seattle must tighten its perimeter coverage to avoid giving New York clean looks.
For the Storm to pull off the upset, they must control tempo and avoid the defensive lapses that have hurt them during this losing streak. Their young scorers can create problems when they play with confidence, but they must also protect the ball and limit the Liberty’s transition chances. If Seattle can generate balanced scoring and keep New York off the offensive glass, the team can stay competitive into the fourth quarter. A disciplined defensive effort is essential.
Liberty vs Storm Predictions
Seattle +12.5 holds value because the Storm’s losses rarely spiral out of control, especially at home. They’ve stayed within single digits in five of their last six defeats, and their home margins have been tight all season. Even when outmatched, their young core plays with energy and refuses to fold early. The Liberty are the better team, but they’ve also had stretches of inconsistency on the road. With Seattle’s effort level and its ability to hang around late, this number gives the Storm enough cushion to stay inside the spread.
The Over 168.5 fits the style these teams naturally create. The Storm’s defense has struggled to contain perimeter scoring, and their pace tends to rise when they’re chasing games. The Liberty’s offense is efficient and balanced, and they rarely slow down unless forced into half‑court battles. Seattle’s young scorers also push tempo, and its recent games have featured long stretches of trading baskets. When both teams lean into rhythm rather than grind, possessions stack quickly and totals climb.
The combination of Seattle and the Over works because the projected flow favors scoring on both ends. New York should control most stretches, but Seattle’s competitiveness at home keeps the game from turning into a blowout. That usually means more late possessions, more fouls, and more scoring chances. If the Storm continue to show the fight they’ve displayed recently, they can stay within range while helping push this matchup past the posted number.
Final Predictions: Seattle +12.5 & Over 168.5
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