Donovan Mitchell‘s extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers locks in Houston’s roster. But with no major move, can Houston make the Play-in Tournament? Of course, thinking that the Rockets could land Mitchell was a long shot anyway. Many Houston fans would have lamented the necessary concession of Jalen Green. He is perhaps the first among Houston’s young prospects upon whose growth the team’s success now depends on.
Houston’s Roster Looks Set But Are the Play-Ins A Moving Target?
The team will return next season with the hope that enough growth has occurred to use its previous 11th seed finish as a mere stepping stone to greater success. Even their rookie selection in this year’s draft was seemingly calibrated with that in mind. They selected Kentucky bombardier Reed Sheppard to weaponize line-ups off the bench with more destructive long-range firepower. In essence, to compliment existing players. It’s a sound idea in principle – some of Houston’s prospects are bound to have improved. But there’s a problem: the ever-increasing ferocity of the Western conference absolutely refuses to relent.
Houston’s Last Play-In Chase
Houston just missed out on a play-in berth last season. The team found itself in a frenetic, last-act chase sequence with its old rivals, Stephen Curry‘s Golden State Warriors. The sequence came to an ignominious end when Houston caught up for the big showdown, and was summarily dispatched by the apparent protagonist of the picture. Then again, it’s difficult not to view any team heavily featuring the talents of Draymond Green as more of an anti-hero character.
The good news for Houston is that the Warriors probably got worse this off-season. It’s far from guaranteed, but the loss of Splash Brother Klay Thompson will hit the organization hard. Perhaps that’s more from a fan perspective at this point, since you could contend the Splash Brother inside Thompson may have died in the 2019 Finals. Still, his spirit undoubtedly made multiple reappearances over the course of the team’s 2022 championship run. However, his 0-for-10 showing in Golden State’s only 2024 play-in game may convince some that recent acquisition De’Anthony Melton will actually be an upgrade.
The defense will probably be better, but however inconsistent Thompson may have become (and he was always a streaky shooter), defenses are never going to fear Melton in remotely the same way. Even potential acquisition and noted shooter Buddy Hield doesn’t quite match it. That means more attention on Curry, something the Warriors potentially cannot afford. Curry is an all-time great who surprisingly remains in his prime, but the Warriors are feeling the tightness of the second apron squeezing them around the midsection.
Short of more major moves (like trading for Utah Jazz all-star Lauri Markkanen), Golden State seems knock-off-able. Though, based on theirs and Houston’s recent shared history, Rockets fans are unlikely to hold great confidence in that. Even so, the real threats to Houston’s hopes for the play-ins lie with the teams that last season’s squad finished ahead of. Notably, two in particular: the Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs.
The Hibernating Grizzly Bear
The Memphis Grizzlies spent last season as a sort of sleeping giant/hibernating grizzly bear. That was due almost entirely to the absence of superstar Ja Morant. Before his suspension and injury, the Grizzlies had been competing for the one seed in the 2022–23 season. Obviously, the roster has undergone changes since then, and indeed, the contours of the Western Conference have shifted dramatically. Nonetheless, between Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies have an imposing young core. They’ll even feature a waking giant next season in the form of new draft pick Zach Edey. The team will undoubtedly affect the play-in race in some way. Either they’ll be competing for a spot themselves, or they’ll be pushing someone else out of the top six and into the competition instead. Whatever the case, a healthy and not entirely dysfunctional Grizzlies team makes Houston’s play-in hunt strictly harder.
The Extraterrestrial
And then there are the Spurs. Not many guys get talked about as Hall of Fame locks after their rookie season. But these are the kinds of assessments that have been in orbit around last year’s number one pick, Victor Wembanyama. His Hall of Fame odds would be significantly boosted if the bookies were right about him winning his first Defensive Player of the Year award in year two. Given the reluctance voters will have to make Rudy Gobert the first ever five-time winner and the slightly dubious cases of some other recent selections, Wemby’s certainly got a pretty good shot. And that’s without even mentioning that he may genuinely be the single most impactful defensive player in the entire association. But considering that Anthony Davis has somehow never won the award, maybe that isn’t even relevant.
But even if it is assumed Wembanyama will be the front-runner next season for DPOY, the Spurs’ main improvement may come on the offensive end. The team’s point guard position will no longer be entirely given over to Jeremy Sochan experimentation. For one thing, the team picked promising guard Stephon Castle fourth in the draft, quite possibly the highest superstar upside player in the lottery. But that isn’t all. They also added among the best ever at the position in Chris Paul.
Paul clearly isn’t what he once was. Even past his prime, however, his ability to immediately improve young teams has been impressive. He did it with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2020 and, more notably, with the Phoenix Suns in 2021. There’s good reason to think he will be able to do something similar with the Spurs in 2024–25. And that’s not even accounting for whatever diabolical, extraterrestrial wizardry Wembanyama might add to his own offensive game. The Spurs are a wild card in a Western Conference that’s going to experience plenty of mid-season shuffling. To make the Play-in, Houston needs to come out on top. Frankly, it seems like they should. But then again, a generationally talented magician should find ways to belie expectations.
The Last Word
Ultimately, the Houston Rockets are a young team that doesn’t have all their eggs in this season’s basket. Fans naturally hanker for their first taste of the post-season since the departure of franchise icon James Harden. And there remains every chance that this young Houston team can deliver. But sticking with those young guys won’t automatically leave the front office with egg on their face if they can’t. With Houston, thus far, holding off on extensions for Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, the team will have plenty of options for an overhaul next off-season. That would likely include a consolidation trade of some kind. In the meantime, fans should enjoy watching the team’s young talents continue to bloom. And the front office can focus on whether the bouquet is going to need a new centerpiece down the line.
