Welcome to the fantasy baseball pitching report for July 19th, where we dive into the fascinating world of baseball’s most captivating element: pitching. Each day, we document intriguing patterns and metrics, such as spin rate, velocity, and pitch mix that presented themselves throughout the previous day. But we don’t stop there. Our reports go beyond the numbers, offering fantasy pitching analysis when certain pitchers deserve more or less attention. Whether you’re seeking a competitive edge, the next breakout star, or daily pitching refreshers, these reports have you covered.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Report for July 19th
Julio Urias (5 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 93 Pitches)
Pitching Report
Just when one may have thought that Julio Urias was beginning to return to his ace self, he goes ahead and drops his worst career outing against the Orioles. While Urias pumped the zone full of strikes, throwing 62% of his pitches in the zone, he fooled nobody. The Dodgers’ ace only generated five whiffs with a horrible 11% swing-and-miss rate. Even more shocking was the contact Orioles batters were able to make on his pitches. Urias surrendered an 89% zone contact rate and a 90% out-of-zone contact rate. In case it was not obvious, these numbers are sensationally bad. His out-of-zone contact rate was nearly 30% above his seasonal average of 62.1%, a figure that ranks him in the 37th percentile of major league pitchers.
The Dodgers lefty also made an adjustment to his pitch mix from his previous start. If you recall correctly, Urias’ last start was an excellent one against the Mets in which he threw six scoreless innings, surrendering one hit and amassing seven strikeouts. In that start Urias leaned heavily on his 4-seamer, throwing it 51% of the time. Despite the heavy fastball usage, his slurve, used 24% of the time was the star of the outing as it earned an extraordinary 65% CSW. Urias seemingly made note of this as in his Wednesday start he threw the Slurve at 38% compared to his fastball usage which sat at 35%. Perhaps this change is partly to blame for the poor outing in which the Baltimore offense completely had his number.
Finally, it’s worth pointing out that Urias’ velocity was down on 3/4 of his pitches in this start:
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- Slurve: 1.0 mph decrease
- 4-Seam Fastball: 1.2 mph decrease
- Changeup: 1.3 mph decrease
THE ORIOLES PILE ON FOUR RUNS IN THE FIRST AGAINST JULIO URIAS#MLB #Birdland pic.twitter.com/2J0qimmCCj
— Vendetta Media (@VendettaVSM) July 19, 2023
Fantasy Analysis
A nightmare outing for Urias and a nightmare outing for fantasy managers. With Urias’ extremely up-and-down 2023 campaign, it is nearly impossible to justify selling him off unless you are completely unconvinced with his ability. At this point, I think there is more of a case for buying low on the Dodgers ace. While there’s no guarantee he turns it around, I find it hard to bet against the career 3.07 ERA starter. If he’s being shopped around in your league, you should inquire further as there is no doubt Urias has the talent to turn his year around.
Sandy Alcantara (6 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 103 Pitches)
Pitching Report
Yet again another outing where Sandy Alcantara surrenders tons of hits and over three runs. Despite the poor stat line, all of the runs, two of the walks, and four of the hits came in the first inning. After that, Sandy was able to able to limit the Cardinal’s offense to four baserunners through the next five innings. This dilemma of having a great start, minus one blow-up inning, has plagued Alcantara throughout the 2023 campaign. Given the statistics collected from this start, I have reason to believe in some improvement for the Marlins righty. First of all, Sandy was able to generate an impressive 17 swinging strikes and seven punch outs in Wednesday’s start. This feat was done against a Cardinals offense that ranks fifth in OPS against righties in the majors this month. Second, his average exit velocity at this start was 88.4 mph, a figure far less than his seasonal 95 mph average. Finally, his changeup, which has greatly struggled this season, earned seven whiffs and a respectable 28% CSW.
"Everything happened in one inning."
Sandy Alcantara speaks about his outing against the Cardinals today after a rough 1st inning but strong outing afterward@Marlins | #MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/vGw3Es5ZGf
— Bally Sports Florida & Bally Sports Sun (@BallySportsFL) July 19, 2023
Fantasy Analysis
This could be an excellent time to buy low on Sandy Alcantara. Plenty of fantasy managers will ignore some of the previously mentioned deeper metrics from his Wednesday start against the Cardinals and focus on the fact that he did not earn a quality start, and gave up eight hits and two walks. Taking that into account, Sandy’s market value will still be very low in the majority of fantasy formats. I’m still holding onto the idea that it’s more of a question of when the Marlins ace will turn his season around as opposed to if and today’s swing-and-miss stuff does give me subtle optimism. If Alcantara is able to limit his current tendency to fall apart during a specific inning in each outing his value will certainly shoot through the roof. Ultimately, there is still nearly half a season remaining in the 2023 campaign and the positives from this start, mixed with his already low fantasy value, makes Sandy Alcantara an interesting buy-low candidate.
Chase Silseth (5 2/3, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, 85 Pitches)
Pitching Report
In his longest outing since his first career start on May 13, 2022, and just his second start of the 2023 season, Chase Silseth dominated the Yankees. The 23-year-old righty from New Mexico made a handful of interesting changes in this start. First, he threw a brand new slider. Compared to his seasonal averages, the pitch was 3.7 mph slower, had 132 fewer RPM, eight more inches of vertical break, and two extra inches of horizontal break. In addition to unveiling the reinvented slider, Silseth completely redesigned his pitch mix around the new pitch.
- Pitch mix prior to Wednesday’s start: 4-Seamer (43%), Cutter (22%), Slider (14%), Splitter (13%), Sinker (7%)
- Pitch mix on Wednesday: Slider (46%), Sinker (33%), 4-Seamer (14%), Splitter (7%)’
Notably, Silseth increased his slider usage in this start by 32%, his sinker usage by 26%, and decreased his 4-seamer usage by 29%. Additionally, he completely removed the cutter from his mix. These alterations were justified on Wednesday as his slider earned an outstanding 54% CSW and 10 whiffs while his sinker dazzled with a 43% CSW. Despite the dip in usage, his 4-seamer was also great working a 33% CSW and a 60% swing-and-miss rate.
Chase Silseth's 9th and 10th Ks pic.twitter.com/f4jx4PxgJt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 20, 2023
Fantasy Analysis
Wow. The new slider and pitch mix seemed to work wonders for the virtually universally unrostered Chase Silseth. While the sample size is small and he lacks experience working deep into major-league games, the changes made in this start prove to be immensely interesting. Furthermore, the Angels‘ six-man rotation will also do no favors for the young pitcher’s fantasy appeal. Overall, I’d recommend paying close attention to Silseth’s next matchup, which appears to be a favorable one against the Tigers. I’ll make sure to personally report on how his new pitch mix fares, or evolves, in his next start.
Main photo credits:
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
