If you had the Tampa Bay Rays leading the American League East on May 14 at 28-14 on your bingo card, proof will need to be provided. They are arguably the most surprising team at this point in the Major League Baseball season. Preseason projections had the Rays in the range of 77 to 79 wins this season. Noting their rough seasons the past couple of years, along with a quiet offseason compared to their American League East counterparts. But the Rays, more than any other team in baseball, have always done more with less, and this year seems to be one of those years for Tampa Bay.
Rays off to a Great Start This Season
The Rays are clearly not interested in remaining towards the bottom of the AL East. In those seasons at this time, they were 21-22 (2024) and 19-23 (2025), respectively. They are on a stretch in which they have won 16 of 19 games. From April 22 to May 7, the Rays won 13 of 14 games. They are a combined 20-4 against the AL East and Central, but have struggled in interleague play, going 8-10. Their +22 run differential is second in the AL, behind only the New York Yankees’ +69. There is still a long way to go, but few could have envisioned this start for the Rays. So, how are they doing it?
Rays All-Stars Continuing Solid Play
One of the big reasons is Jonathan Aranda building off his first career All-Star appearance last season. In just 42 games this season, the Rays’ first baseman has eight home runs and 33 RBI. Well on pace to surpass his previous career highs of 14 home runs and 59 RBI set last season.
Aranda currently leads the Rays in RBI (33), OBP (.387), and WRC+ (140). Some of the underlying metrics for Aranda are actually down from last season right now. But regression was inevitable. Aranda was in the top 2% of the MLB in numerous offensive categories last season, per Statcast. He is still playing very well this season as one of the top hitters on the Rays and possesses a stellar 10 Batting Run value, good for the 91st percentile in the MLB.
Slotting in third on the Rays by WRC+ is third baseman Junior Caminero with a 126 WRC+. Caminero is off to a solid start, possessing an .817 OPS with 11 home runs and 19 RBI. He set a high bar last year in his first career All-Star season, hitting .264 with 45 home runs (sixth in MLB) and 110 RBI. Caminero is still at the top of the league with a bat speed of 79.9 mph, per Statcast. Additionally, his whiff and K rates have gone down from 24.7% and 19.1% in 2025 to 20.6% and 16.4% this season, respectively. He has also significantly improved his walk rate from 6.3% last season to 11.5% this season.
The Rays seemingly have both corner infield spots locked down for the long-term whenever they decide to extend Aranda and Caminero. As for now, the Rays are receiving incredible value from both players, with both earning just under $800K this season, per Spotrac. This is par for the course for the Rays, who routinely have good to great teams while operating with one of the smallest payrolls in the MLB. Of course, the success of the Rays can never be talked about without mentioning their excellent pitching.
The Rays Magic Pitching Dust
If Coors Field is where pitchers go to die, Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay is where pitchers go to find new life. Right-hander Nick Martinez, 35, has found the fountain of youth in Tampa this season. Yes, it is still very early, but Martinez’s start to this season has been nothing short of spectacular. He spent the first four seasons (2014-17) of his career with the Texas Rangers after being drafted by the Rangers in the 18th round of the 2011 MLB Draft out of Fordham University. He struggled mightily in 2016-17 and then spent the next four seasons in Japan.
Martinez then returned to the MLB in 2022 and was a very solid starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds in 2024-25, amassing a 6.2 WAR. Earning him a nice payday this offseason from the Rays for $13 million this season. It is proving to be money well spent. Eight starts in, Martinez is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA over 47 2/3 innings pitched, leading the Rays in both wins and ERA. He also leads Tampa Bay in WAR (1.9) and quality starts (four). Martinez earned all four wins in his last four starts.
Over 25 2/3 IP in those starts, Martinez has allowed just three earned runs with 17 Ks to just three BBs. As part of an incredible stretch in which the Rays set a franchise record allowing three earned runs or less in 16 straight games!
Additionally, Martinez has been adept at limiting hard contact this season, allowing just a 30% hard-hit rate and 86.4 mph average exit velocity, per Statcast. Part of the reason for Martinez’s improvement? He is using his sinker and changeup significantly more, up from 17% and 20% usage rates to 31% and 28% this season, respectively. At the same time, his cutter and four-seamer are down from 21% to 18% and 11%, respectively.
The changes have paid off in a big way. Martinez’s pitching run value, fastball run value, and offspeed run value are all in the top four percent of the MLB! Improving from -2, 0, and -2 last season to 12, 10, and five this year, respectively. Martinez was not on the top 50 free agent big boards for The Athletic or ESPN. There is still a long ways to go this season. But Martinez is on pace to be an All-Star for Tampa and one of the biggest steals in free agency. However, he’s not the only Rays pitcher having a special season.
Shane McClanahan Is the Man Again
Shane McClanahan was drafted 31st overall in 2018 by the Rays out of the University of South Florida. The left-hander took no time at all living up to that draft stock. In his rookie season in 2021, McClanahan went 10-6 with a 3.43 ERA and 141 Ks to just 37 BBs in 25 games. He followed that up with consecutive All-Star seasons in 2022-23. 2022 was an insanely dominant season for McClanahan. He went 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA and 194 Ks to just 38 BBs in 28 games. His 4.0 WAR and 18 quality starts both easily led a postseason Rays’ club in 2022. Following another stellar year in 2023, major adversity struck.
McClanahan had Tommy John surgery in August 2023 and, after missing the entire 2024 season, was ready to join the Rays for 2025 Spring Training. But in his final spring start, McClanahan suffered a nerve issue in his left triceps that caused him to miss all of 2025. This year, McClanahan is back, and it feels like 2023 again in Tampa Bay. Just McClanahan being healthy to this point is a huge win for the Rays. Expecting anything close to his previous form after two full seasons away would be ridiculous. But McClanahan didn’t get that memo and has been back to his dominant self this season.
Let. Him. Cook. pic.twitter.com/1CJGFKZ4Gb
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) May 13, 2026
He is 4-2 in eight starts with a 2.27 ERA and 41 Ks to 15 BBs in 39 2/3 IP. Like Martinez, he also is in the top four percent league-wide with a 12 pitching run value, six breaking run value, and five offspeed run value, per Statcast. Again, it’s early, but if McClanahan can stay healthy, watch out, MLB. The Rays got their ace back and have a very solid team behind him. It is awesome to see McClanahan thriving in a Rays uniform again after the long road of recovery he faced.
Watch Out for the Rays
Will the Rays fend off the Evil Empire Yankees all the way until October? Impossible to say at this point. But if the Rays keep up the good play, it will be one of the most fun division races to keep an eye on this season. But there’s legitimate reason to think the Rays won’t be going anywhere. Their two 2025 All-Stars at the top of the lineup are building on those All-Star seasons. They aren’t alone either. Yandy Díaz, Ryan Vilade, and Jonny DeLuca all have WRC+ above 100. The Rays have a really solid lineup that has been one of the most consistent producers in the MLB thus far this season.
Starting rotations are critical to team success. Right now, Martinez and McClanahan form one of the best 1-2 pitching duos in baseball. Again, staying power is the major question with these two. Martinez is 35 and playing well above his career averages. McClanahan is coming off two straight seasons away from baseball due to serious injuries.
But so far they’ve been great, and Drew Rasmussen and Steven Matz have been very solid in the Rays’ rotation as well. As for losing closer Pete Fairbanks to the Miami Marlins this offseason? Bryan Baker has stepped right in and been a very effective closer. Posting a solid 2.60 ERA over 17 1/3 IP. Additionally, he has already collected 11 saves, good for fourth in the MLB. In classic Rays’ fashion, Baker had seven career saves in five seasons before 2026. Meanwhile, Fairbanks is 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA in 10 games this season.
All facets of the game are working for the Rays right now. There’s a reason sports aren’t played on paper. The Rays looked destined for a third straight fourth or last-place finish in the AL East this offseason. Instead, they have arguably been the biggest surprise story in the MLB so far, and a lot of fun to watch.
Main Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
