Nick Martinez has been off to a torrid start for the Tampa Bay Rays this year. For what was a bit of an up-for-grabs portion of the rotation, Martinez has delivered solid starts. So far, the veteran has gone 30 innings over five starts. Martinez has a 2.10 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. It’s best to ignore the expected marks for Martinez for now. The former Cincinnati Red has a 16.4% K-rate and has been quite good at limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is in the top 25% of baseball.
What’s He Been Throwing?
Or, more appropriately, what’s his stuff been like? Martinez entered 2026 with a vast repertoire. In 2025, he threw six pitches, all with usage rates over 10%. This season, he’s focused more on three pitches, with the other half of his mix coming in at below 15% usage. His two least-used pitches are even under 10% for the year.
Those three main offerings are his sinker, change-up, and cutter. While stuff models can be a bit of a tougher indicator of what makes pitches great, it’s not a bad metric to look at for this. And Martinez has graded well with his sinker and change-up, by far his two most used pitches this season. His change-up has been his best pitch according to Stuff+, with a 118 mark. The sinker has been 3% above league average in this metric.
The change-up is nothing new, as Martinez has always graded out well with this pitch. The sinker has shown an uptick in effectiveness since arriving in Tampa Bay. While having a bunch of different pitches can be fun, the Rays have Martinez focused on his best offerings. So far, it’s produced good results.
Are These Results Sustainable?
Yes, and no. There are parts of Martinez’s profile that have remained consistent throughout his career. For one, he absolutely fills up the zone. His walk rate over the past three seasons has been one of the best in the game. While it’s not the only thing, throwing strikes is a heck of a good place to start. Where Martinez runs into trouble is his lack of whiffs. The swing-and-miss has never been a big part of his game. So, while it’s a bit concerning, it’s not something out of the ordinary to be worried about with him.
What is a bit less ideal is the drop-off in chase rate that he’s experienced over the years. After a sharp 33% performance in this metric in 2024, his subsequent seasons have been less than stellar. This season it’s at 28.2%, a bit higher than last year’s performance. So, it’s not the end of the world, but it’s something to monitor for Martinez.
How Important Is It That He Continue to Pitch Well?
The stupid, easy answer would be “Very.” The more nuanced and accurate version is, “Well, kind of.” The hope is that Joe Boyle returns soon and is as dominant as promised. Shane McClanahan also continues to build back up after his extended absence. And who knows when Ryan Pepiot will be back, but he’s an important piece of the puzzle as well.
Martinez has been a wonderful story to start the year. The hope is that he can regress a bit and it won’t hurt the Rays all that much with others stepping up. Plus, there’s a silver lining to Martinez as a pitcher. He’s a joy to watch; he works fast, has a fun, quirky delivery, and lets the defense go to work. Couple that with the Rays’ “small ball” approach on offense, and even if the Rays don’t make the playoffs, at least they’ll be a good watch. Regardless, it’s a long season, and Martinez could be a part of the Rays’ success (or failure) in 2026.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images
