With Sunday afternoon’s win over the St. Louis Cardinals, the San Diego Padres moved into a tie for first place with their rivals to the north. The Los Angeles Dodgers lost to the Atlanta Braves, 7-2, surrendering their lead in the National League West for the first time since April 26. Going into this season, the Friars had been projected for a fourth-place finish in the NL West, forcing them into an underdog role. It’s one that San Diego is all too familiar with, but one that they have continued to disprove again and again. So what’s keeping the Padres’ NL West chances less than those of the Dodgers? And what upper hand do they have, if any, over their rivals?
Padres’ NL West Chances Looking More Realistic
The Good: A Club That Won’t Quit
The Padres have done a great job of proving they have some fight in them. Stuck in last place in their division entering the month of April, the Friars rattled off eight straight wins to propel themselves into first place just three weeks later. But the interesting thing is that San Diego has won quite a few more games than the metrics say they should.
Their expected win-loss record is a modest 20-20, putting them four games behind Los Angeles. The Friars have performed much better than that, winning four more games than they were expected to. That’s been due to an all-around effort from the club, alongside the steady guiding hand of new manager Craig Stammen. Stammen’s tenure has been fantastic so far this year. He’s pulled all the right strings with his bench and, despite some issues with bullpen usage, has thrust the Padres into contention.
Manny Machado and the Padres walk it off! pic.twitter.com/ZSxg8QOeoO
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 10, 2026
If San Diego is to make a run for the division title, they’ll need a bit more from their stars. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have a combined .224 batting average and 10 home runs. If those three can heat up, this club could be unstoppable. For now, the contributors are doing just that: contributing. Miguel Andujar provides a steady bat, hitting .284. Xander Bogaerts leads the club with seven home runs and is batting .268. Luis Campusano was batting .288 before being sent to the IL with a fractured toe. Nick Castellanos just slugged a clutch home run in Sunday’s series finale, and Ty France has three homers in his last 15 games. That production has helped the Friars get to where they are.
The Bad: The LA Juggernaut
But Los Angeles has been just as good, with a much more talented roster. Headlined by superstars like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, and Shohei Ohtani, the club is one of the most star-studded in the sport. It’s also the most expensive. The Dodgers have spent over $400 million on their 2026 roster. That level of spending has won them back-to-back championships. It’s also bought them a level of certainty that’s hard to find in this sport. But, beyond their stars, the Dodgers have cultivated a number of role players who have stepped up in recent years. Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, and Andy Pages have each been major pieces of their recent World Series runs.
Yet that hasn’t stopped Los Angeles from underperforming to start this season. Yes, they’re still in first place, but they haven’t been off to as dominant a start as projected. Returning to that expected record metric, the Dodgers have lost three games they should have won. They own a 24-16 record compared to an expected 27-13 one. That underperformance has allowed the Padres to sneak into a share of first place. That likely won’t remain the case, as the Dodgers are far too much of a certainty to remain as underachieving as they are. If they’ve proven anything, they won’t make it easy for San Diego.
The Ugly: San Diego’s Inconsistent Offense
The Friars’ offense has endured multiple middling streaks during this season. The first came in their opening homestand, with San Diego struggling to scratch more than three runs across in five of six games. But their second one has been much more recent. The Padres have only scored 31 runs in their last 10 games despite a modest 5-5 record in that time.
That’s only due to the Friars’ dominant pitching staff (as well as some well-timed hitting). The only reason the Padres have managed to get a share of first place is that the Dodgers have been playing even worse, going 4-6 in their last 10 games. But Los Angeles has a run differential of +69 in comparison to the Padres’ +3. That encapsulates the gap between the two clubs’ respective offenses well.
San Diego’s offense has bitten them before, being the reason for their early exits from the 2024 postseason at the hands of the Dodgers, as well as the 2025 playoffs against the Chicago Cubs. In both exits, the lineup failed to scratch enough runs to back up their vaunted pitching staff. The Padres’ struggles with RISP will need to be solved soon if they hope to take home a division crown.
So … Can They Win?
It’s certainly possible that San Diego could surprise everyone and upset the Dodgers. To do so, a lot of things would need to go right. But it’s definitely not completely out of the question. If the season ended today, the Padres would win the division, as they own the better record against divisional opponents for the tiebreaker over Los Angeles.
But there are plenty of games left to be played. That’s why baseball has such a long season. It’s meant to be a test of the mettle of each club. Who comes out on top is anyone’s guess, but all eyes are on the rivals’ first matchup of the year. That will come a week from now, May 18-20, as the two face off in Petco Park. That series may tell us a lot about the Padres’ NL West chances and how the rest of the season will play out.
Main Photo Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images
