On Monday, the United States played Mexico in the group stage of the World Baseball Classic. And there were plenty of highlights. Red Sox rising star Roman Anthony blasted a 417 foot homer, just a couple innings after Aaron Judge launched one of his own. Paul Skenes had a dominant four inning outing, and Garrett Whitlock finished things in the ninth. However, despite the loss for Mexico, there seemed to be a bright spot for them that provides insight into the Red Sox season.
Jarren Duran: Possible Bounceback Candidate?
Jarren Duran had a multi-homer game against the US, both of which came off of Chicago Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd. After Monday’s performance, he currently has three homers in the World Baseball Classic. He also has a slugging percentage of 1.500. It’s a small sample size, sure, seeing as it’s three games and ten at bats. Let’s take it back to Spring Training though. He played five games, also hitting three home runs, and achieving an average of .583 with the same slugging as the WBC and an OPS of 2.167.
In the case of Spring Training, it is not the best competition. Teams are mostly trying to see what they have in the minors and figuring out last roster spots. However, if those numbers are being repeated in the WBC, some questions do need to be asked about if last year was a fluke. Now, the term bounce back is being used loosely. Duran’s 2025 was not bad by any standards. But when looking at his 2024 campaign, which ended in a top 10 MVP finish, it lacks in comparison.
Duran’s 2024 Season: MVP-Type Season
Duran has a stellar 2024 season, finishing eighth overall in American League MVP voting. This was his true breakout year, with his at bats increasing from 332 in 2023 to 671. His speed really showed off as well, with 48 doubles, 14 triples, and 34 stolen bases. His numbers in doubles and triples led all of baseball that year. He finished with an 8.7 WAR,
Jarren Duran’s 2025 hasn’t been quite as great as his 2024 season, but he’s still on pace for 91 runs, 43 doubles, 18 triples, 16 HR, 99 RBI, and 26 SB.
Last 24 Games: 100 PA, .318/.420/.706, 18 XBH, 6 HR, 3 SB#DirtyWaterpic.twitter.com/UgYweyyzHr
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) July 31, 2025
While the main focus in 2026 could most likely be at designated hitter for him, his defense is still worth talking about. In 2024 specifically, he had a fielding percentage of .984 (slightly below league average for an outfielder) but he had a +23 DRS, which is amazing. He played majority center field in 2024. This led all center fielders that season and was second among all fielders behind Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.
2025 Season: A Step Back, But Still Productive
With Duran having a huge breakout in 2024, expectations were high for 2025. And while his average took a major hit (.256 compared to .285), the season wasn’t a total failure. Offensively, he had 41 doubles and 13 triples. He also had more RBIs and walks than he did in ’24. His strikeout rate was a little concerning at 24.3%. But this was the second lowest rate of his career, the lowest being 2024.
Defensively, he wasn’t as elite as he was in 2024, “only” having a DRS of 9, which is still very good. He also took on left field more regularly and shared the outfield with two Gold Glovers in Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, so there was less focus on him in terms of his glove. Even though it’s not the massive year 2024 was for him, he still had a 4.7 WAR. 2025 may have been a step back, and it’s easy to see why this was considered a disappointment of a season for him. But this was by no means a bad season.
Jarren Duran put it on the money to get the runner at home! pic.twitter.com/g5GmiW6g5v
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 2, 2025
2026: Bounceback Potential?
Seeing as Anthony got off to a hot start in the majors when he debuted, the talk about expectations for his potential skyrocketed. For Duran, that meant people saw him as the odd man out in the outfield, which explains the trade rumors. But at least for the next few months, he’s here to stay. Projections for this upcoming 2026 season (per Baseball Reference) predict him having a batting average of .270, which would be an improvement. He’s also projected 16 homers, which is what he had last year.
It’s also worth noting that of his 6 home runs this preseason, 4 of them were against left-handed pitching. With Romy Gonzalez’s injury possibly looming longer than just Opening Day, if his bat continues like this against southpaws, he could be an option in a lineup for Alex Cora when planning for them.
With these projections, it’s important as a fan to keep in mind that his role is a little uncertain. He’s not a full time left fielder, but he’s not a full time DH either. He’s probably splitting time at both. Regardless, he’s a valuable piece to have on this team and he’ll continue to contribute in any capacity.
(Top Image Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
