The San Diego Padres have never shied away from long-term commitments. They’ve locked up stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts to contracts of a decade or more. Now, The Athletic’s Tim Britton sees another young player who could follow that path: Jackson Merrill. Britton projects a potential 15-year, $375 million extension for the National League Rookie of the Year finalist—one that could resemble the complex deal Julio Rodríguez signed with the Seattle Mariners.
Finding the Middle Ground for a Jackson Merrill Extension
Rodríguez’s deal guarantees him at least $209.3 million over 12 years but could exceed $400 million over 15-plus years, effectively buying out 10 free-agent seasons at around $350 million. The Padres, known for their willingness to commit to long deals, could take the same approach with Merrill—potentially securing him through his age-36 season at $32.5 million per year.
According to league sources, the Padres discussed a potential extension with Merrill before he even played his first major league game—similar to the deal Jackson Chourio signed with the Milwaukee Brewers. However, the two sides were unable to reach an agreement. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported in mid-February that he wouldn’t “be surprised if negotiations resumed,” further suggesting that locking up Merrill now would make sense. With his value only expected to rise, an early extension could be a strategic move for San Diego.
A Historic Rookie Campaign
Over 156 games, Merrill led all qualified major league rookies in fWAR (5.3), hits (162), extra-base hits (61), RBI (90), batting average (.292), and slugging percentage (.500). He also tied for first with Baltimore’s Colton Cowser—who finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting—with 24 home runs. Merrill was also outstanding in center field, earning 12 Outs Above Average.
Merrill’s rookie impact went far beyond the numbers. He delivered one of the most clutch rookie seasons in Padres history, hitting five game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later—the most ever by a rookie. He is also the youngest player in MLB history to accomplish this feat. Merrill played a key role in leading the Padres, coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, back to the postseason in 2024.
As Merrill continues to develop into one of the brightest young stars in the game, securing him on a long-term deal could prove to be one of the best investments the Padres make in their future. With his combination of production, clutch moments, and defensive prowess, Merrill has already demonstrated that he’s capable of being a cornerstone for the franchise.
Main Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
