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The Early Odds for Cy Young Award Favorites in 2024

With spring training well underway, we are inching closer to Opening Day. Earlier this week, we looked at the future odds of the Rookie of the Year favorites. Now, the attention will turn to the American and National League Cy Young race. Unlike the rookies, there are a few household names who are at the top of the odds board for their respective leagues. Will we see a first-timer win or a repeat? Those are some questions to consider as there are plenty of good options available.

The odds will be used by

Early Cy Young Award Watch

American League

AL Cy Young Award Odds

Player Team Odds
Gerrit Cole New York Yankees +500
Kevin Gausman Toronto Blue Jays +700
Pablo López Minnesota Twins  +1000
Framber Valdez Houston Astros +1000
Corbin Burnes Baltimore Orioles +1000

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Cole waited years to finally take home his first Cy Young Award. But that doesn’t mean he’s going to take his foot off the gas. Cole ran away with the award last season, claiming all 30 first-place votes after pacing the AL in ERA (2.63), WHIP (0.981), and innings pitched (209). That is a feat in and of itself in today’s game. He enters the spring with a very good chance to become the 12th pitcher to win consecutive Cy Youngs. He will enter his fifth season with the New York Yankees having earned Cy Young votes in each of the past six years, with five top-five finishes in that span.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Gausman has displayed plenty of consistency in recent years. Gausman finished third in AL Cy Young voting last season after leading the AL with 237 strikeouts. He even registered the second-highest K/9 (11.53) of his career. Gausman has earned 12-plus wins, 170 or more innings, and at least 200 strikeouts in three consecutive years. The biggest weakness of Gausman’s game last season was when he surrendered a career-worst 9.9% barrel rate. When he uses his four-seam fastball and splitter, Gausman notched the tenth-best swinging strike rate (12.9%).

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins

Lopez increased his strikeout rate more than anyone else from 2022 to 2023. His 29.2% strikeout rate ranked fifth among qualified starters. He went from using his four-seamer and changeup to adding a sweeper to that main mix. Lopez went from a good pitcher with tons of promise to a Cy Young contender. Lopez also made his first All-Star team in 2023 and received Cy Young votes for the first time. If he can continue to build off his changes, he could become the first Twin pitcher to win a Cy Young since Johan Santana in 2006.

National League

NL Cy Young Award Odds

Player Team Odds
Spencer Strider Atlanta Braves +500
Zack Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies +850
Logan Webb San Francisco Giants +1000
Zac Gallen Arizona Diamondbacks +1200
Max Fried Atlanta Braves +1200

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Among NL pitchers who threw 100 innings, Strider led the league by a margin. His 2.85 FIP and 36.8 strikeout rate were the best in MLB despite seven NL pitchers throwing more innings. He even set the league record for the fastest pitcher to record 100 strikeouts, doing so in 61 innings. One reason why he didn’t win it in 2023 was because of a 3.86 ERA, and due to a high home run rate. Strider enters 2024 coming off a 20-win season and a favorite to take home the NL Cy Young Award. He will certainly come into his own this year and if he can stay healthy, there’s no doubt he’ll be one of the best punchout aces in the NL.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Since signing with the Phillies on a five-year $115 million deal in 2019, Wheeler has been a true ace.  His performance after last season’s All-Star break saw him record a 2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 7.0 K/BB ratio and 56 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings. However, a 3.61 ERA cost Zack Wheeler a better finish in the NL Cy Young voting last season. Wheeler was one of the best pitchers when it comes to metrics, ranking second in the NL in K/BB ratio (5.44), third in WHIP (1.08), and fourth in strikeouts (212). He even led all pitchers across the league in fWAR (5.9), which is based on FIP instead of ERA.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

A career year for Webb turned into a second-place finish in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season. But, Webb has the potential to establish himself further this year. Webb led the Majors with a career-best 216 strikeouts while logging a 3.25 ERA over 33 starts. He was one of five starters to reach the 200-inning threshold this past season, becoming the first Giants pitcher to lead the league in innings since Gaylord Perry in 1970. Webb posted an MLB-best 62.7% ground-ball rate and an NL-best 3.7% walk rate, allowing him to pitch deep into games and limit runs.

San Francisco has not had a Cy Young winner since Tim Lincecum captured back-to-back award-winning seasons in 2008 and 2009.

Main Photo: © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports


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