After going into the break on a nice run, we hit the skids upon our return. But, betting on baseball is a long game, not a get-rich-quick scheme. So we continue our grind as we dive into our pick for baseball bets on July 16th.
Baseball Bets for July 16th
The Headliner: Padres @ Phillies
In the last of their four-game weekend set, the San Diego Padres look to even the series against the Philadelphia Phillies. On the mound for the Padres will be veteran righty Seth Lugo. In 12 starts this season, Lugo has a 3.39 ERA across 63 2/3 innings with 59 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.25 ERA across 36 innings with 33 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Lugo has actually performed better on the road. In six road starts, Lugo has a 2.65 ERA across 34 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP. Lugo has gotten more batters to hit groundballs this season with a 47.4% rate, compared to his career rate of 44.1%.
The Phillies will counter with a veteran righty of their own in Zack Wheeler. In 18 starts this season, Wheeler has a 4.05 ERA across 104 1/3 innings with 119 strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 4.81 ERA across 39 1/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP. Wheeler has been virtually the same pitcher at home and on the road. In nine home starts, he carries a 4.05 ERA across 53 1/3 innings with 59 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. The defense has let Wheeler down tremendously this season. His season FIP currently sits at 2.83, 1.22 runs better than his ERA. These pitchers are former teammates who, much like Zach Eflin and Aaron Nola two weeks ago, will want to battle for supremacy. This one will be a low-scoring affair.
The Play: Phillies ML (-152) – 1.5U
Bonus Total Bet: Full Game Total Under 9 (-115) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144) – 0.5U
Avoiding the Sweep: Brewers @ Reds
After taking the first two games of this weekend’s series in shutout fashion, the Milwaukee Brewers look to complete the sweep against the divisional rival Cincinnati Reds. On the mound for the Brewers will be Adrian Houser. In 11 games this season (nine starts), Houser has a 3.68 ERA across 51 1/3 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 1.54 WHIP. Over his last seven (five starts), he has an ERA of 4.60 across 31 1/3 innings with 20 strikeouts and a 1.72 WHIP. In six road games (five starts), he carries a 3.41 ERA across 29 innings with 20 strikeouts and a 1.48 WHIP. He has started one game against the Reds this season, on the road, and he allowed one earned run over seven innings on six hits with no walks and two strikeouts.
The Reds will send Ben Lively to the mound. In 10 games this season (eight starts), Lively has a 3.83 ERA across 51 2/3 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP. Over his last seven (all starts), he has a 4.20 ERA across 40 2/3 innings with 40 strikeouts and a 1.38 WHIP. Much like Wheeler above, Lively has virtually been the same pitcher at home and on the road. In five home appearances (four starts), Lively has a 3.86 ERA. This comes across 25 2/3 innings with 26 strikeouts and a 1.17 WHIP. After being shut out in the first two games of this series, expect the Reds offense to show up for this one.
The Play: Reds ML (-130) – 1U
Bonus First Inning Prop: YRFI (-155) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus: Elly De La Cruz Total Bases Over 1.5 (-103) – 0.5U
Finding Light In a Dark World: Twins @ Athletics
The Minnesota Twins look to complete the weekend sweep against the Oakland Athletics. The Twins will be sending Joe Ryan to the mound. In 18 starts this season, Ryan has a 3.70 ERA. This comes over 107 innings with 124 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 5.14 ERA. This comes over 42 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.02 WHIP. Ryan has performed worse on the road this season. In nine road starts, he carries an ERA of 4.14. Over 50 road innings, he has struck out 54 batters and has a WHIP of 1.14. The first two wins of this series have not come easy for the Twins. With Ryan’s road struggles, this could be a tough game as well.
The Athletics will send lefty JP Sears to the mound. In 18 starts this season, Sears has a 3.97 ERA across 99 2/3 innings with 93 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has pitched to a 3.38 ERA. This comes in 40 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP. Sears has pitched better at home. In seven home starts, he carries an ERA of 3.92 across 39 innings with 35 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. Sears’ backing defense has helped him thus far. His season FIP sits at 4.89, almost a full run worse than his ERA. These two teams have averaged 13 runs a game this series. Expect more of the same today
The Play: A’s ML (+175) – 0.5U
Bonus Total Bet: First Five Total Over Four (-130) – 0.5U
Sunday Double Bonus: Zack Gelof Over 0.5 RBI (+272) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Aaron Nola, Adrian Houser, Ben Lively, Elly De La Cruz, Joe Ryan, JP Sears, Zack Gelof
