My four-year-old son loves the movie Encanto. If you have not seen it, it is an animated Disney cartoon with cute songs throughout and bright colors, and it touches on many different issues that people face every day. One of the main songs in the movie is entitled, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” Well, we don’t talk about yesterday either. Here are our baseball bets for July 15th.
Baseball Bets for July 15th
The Headliner: Red Sox @ Cubs
After dropping game one of the series last night, the Boston Red Sox look to even their weekend series today against the Chicago Cubs. In doing so, they will send lefty James Paxton to the mound. In 10 starts this season, Paxton has a 2.73 ERA across 56 innings with 64 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has an ERA of 1.93 across 42 innings with 45 strikeouts and a 0.86 WHIP. While not bad, he has not pitched as well on the road. In six road starts, he has an ERA of 3.18 across 34 innings with 36 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP. His backing defense has helped him out this season as his FIP currently sits at 3.66
The Cubs will counter with their ace in Marcus Stroman. In 19 starts this season, Stroman has an ERA of 2.96 across 112 2/3 innings with 98 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. Over his last seven, he carries an ERA of 3.63 across 39 2/3 innings with 36 strikeouts and a 1.34 WHIP. He has been a better pitcher at home. Through nine home starts, Stroman carries a 2.81 ERA across 57 2/3 innings with 54 strikeouts and a 0.88 WHIP. Stroman’s defense has helped him out, as well. Stroman’s FIP for the season currently sits at 3.41. Expect this game to be low-scoring early, and with Paxton racking up K’s.
The Play: Red Sox ML (-107) – 1.5U
Bonus Player Prop: James Paxton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-147) – 0.5U
North of the Border: Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays
In another interleague matchup this weekend, the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Toronto Blue Jays in game two of their series. On the mound for the Diamondbacks will be their ace, Zac Gallen. In 19 starts this season, Gallen has an ERA of 3.04 across 118 1/3 innings with 125 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has an ERA of 3.55 across 45 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and a 1.07 WHIP. The bottom has fallen out for Gallen on the road this year. In nine road starts, he carries a 5.08 ERA across 51 1/3 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.31 WHIP. Gallen comes in today with five road starts of four or more earned runs out of those nine.
The Blue Jays will be sending Kevin Gausman to the mound. In 19 starts, Gausman has a 3.03 ERA across 115 2/3 innings with 153 strikeouts and a 1.13 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has a 3.54 ERA across 40 2/3 innings with 53 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP. Gausman has pitched better at home. In nine home starts, he carries an ERA of 2.58 across 59 1/3 innings with 85 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. With Gallen’s road struggles, this game could get ugly early.
The Play: Blue Jays ML (-155) – 1U
Bonus Team Total: Blue Jays First Five Over 2.5 (+115) – 0.5U
Divisional Matchup: Brewers @ Reds
The last of our bets for July 15th sees the Milwaukee Brewers look to win the weekend series against their divisional rival the Cincinnati Reds. On the mound for the Brewers will be Freddy Peralta. In 17 starts this season, Peralta has a 4.70 ERA across 92 innings with 107 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP. Over his last seven, he has an ERA of 4.78 across 37 2/3 innings with 49 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP. Peralta has pitched worse on the road. In seven road starts, he carries a 5.82 ERA across 38 2/3 innings with 39 strikeouts and a 1.53 WHIP. This will be his first start against the Reds this season.
The Reds will be sending rookie lefty Andrew Abbott to the mound. Through seven starts, Abbott carries a 2.38 ERA across 41 2/3 innings with 48 strikeouts and a 1.03 WHIP. Abbott has performed better at Great American Ballpark. In three starts there, he has a 1.83 ERA across 19.2 innings with 28 strikeouts and a 0.71 WHIP. This will be his third start against the Brewers. In his first two, he allowed a combined six earned runs across 10 1/3 innings on 10 hits, five walks, and while striking out 12 batters. All of the runs he has allowed to the Brewers came in his second start against them, which is also his most recent start, coming on July 7th on the road. This could be a high-scoring game with the usual Elly De La Cruz excitement.
The Play: Reds ML (-120) – 0.5U
Bonus Player Prop: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) – 0.5U
Main photo credits:
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Freddy Peralta, Andrew Abbott, Elly De La Cruz
