Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Why Dynasties are Important in Sports

*EDITOR’S NOTE*  This is in response to our first article, “Death of Dominance and the Rise of Parity in Professional Sports“.  In that article, we compared the seeding of championship winners from the 1980’s with those over the past 10 years.  Before reading this, I highly recommend you read yesterday’s article so you are familiar with the basic schools of thought, which will be discussed herein, as well as in tomorrow’s article, “Parity: Every Sportsfans’ Dream“.

 

As a fan of virtually every sport on the planet, I have always been intrigued by trends. We all compare sports to what they were like when we grew up.  Our heroes have changed, while the teams we support likely haven’t.  We see sports differently, and as such, get something different out of it every year. It is my belief that most sports were better when I was younger.  Not from a feeling of nostalgia, though I concede that would be tough to gauge, but rather because of the dominant teams of the 1980’s.

The purpose of this article is twofold.  First, I want to express why it is that I like teams that dominate, thereby creating dynasties.  Secondly, I want to express what I don’t like about parity, which I’m sure you will agree for the most part, is what is occurring in most sports.

Why I favour dynasties:

Think of how exciting basketball was in the 80’s with the Lakers-Celtics dynasties, and the Sixers just on the fringe.  Am I right?  How about the Islanders of the NHL in the early 80’s after the strong Canadiens teams of the 70’s, and how the Oilers seemed to be knocking on their door with Gretzky, Messier et al through the mid-80’s?  And, quick, name the best quarterback and receiver in the history of the game… Montana and Rice?  Okay, that’s debatable, but what is not is how exciting the 49ers were for the mid-late 80’s.  What I’m getting at is that no one remembers the team that pokes their head in for the odd championship, except for the fans of that particular team.  Fans remember dominant teams, who string a few trophies together to make a dynasty.

See, the 80’s were, for the most part, dominated by dynasties.  A look back even further and you will find that in almost every decade there were teams that were by far and away better than the rest.  In some cases, like the Lakers-Celtics-Sixers, there were two or three teams that appear year after year, after year, and so on.  Because I am addressing yesterday’s article directly, which compared the 80’s to the last ten years, I’ll avoid getting into the years before the 80’s too much, but many cases for dynasties can be made from the 60’s and 70’s.

For me, I want to see the best.  I want to watch the best teams possible and get wrapped-up in their next quest for the championship. I am not a fan of any of the teams aforementioned, but I loved watching each one of them.  Does that make me a fan of sports in general, and not one team in particular?  Perhaps.  Maybe that’s the difference between me and those who like watching teams dominate versus those who appreciate parity (such as Ben Kerr will argue in tomorrow’s instalment).

I don’t want to watch a team that was either A) complacent all year, or B) unworthy of the right to play for the title.  Conceivably the eighth place team, such as the Los Angeles Kings in this year’s NHL Playoffs, could win.  Even the team they are playing, the NJ Devils, came into the playoffs as sixth-seed. I don’t like it because I am not convinced they are the best.  The Kings are very good eighth-place team, but the fact remains that they are still the eight best in a conference of 15.

I know some will argue that the best teams shouldn’t have a problem with their lower-ranked rivals, but I have a rebuttal.  First, because of parity, the gap between top and bottom seeds is not nearly as wide as it was in the 80’s (and 60’s, 70’s, 90’s, etc).  Therefore, a top seed is not heads and tails better than the rest.  A team that wins the championship isn’t necessarily the best team; rather, they just happen to be better than the four teams they played against.  Compare that with the dynasties mentioned earlier.  Was there any doubt that in the 80’s when New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers won the Stanley Cups  Or when Lakers and Celtics dominated the NBA?  Would the thought even have crossed your mind whether or not they deserved it?  Likely not.

There are so many factors that might propel a much inferior team through the playoffs to the championship game, and for a top-seed to stumble.  Much depends on the draw, injuries, travel, etc.  Some teams just do very poorly against others.  When an upset happens in hockey or basketball in a match-up of fourth and fifth place teams I can accept it because the two were likely not far apart in their skill level.  But when it happens between a first and eighth seed, it’s a tough pill to swallow.  The thing is, as a result of parity, there are few really great teams, and therefore, we have 16 teams, all of whom have a decent-enough shot at winning.  Therefore, ironically enough, the playoff format actually suits these leagues because of parity, and the fact that the teams are so close in skill level.

Some sports are more successful than others because their post-seasons are shorter and allow fewer teams.  As such, you will be assured a team that was good all year will win because only the best teams are rewarded.  Baseball, for instance,  has a one-game wild-card playoff, followed by a best-of-five series and two best-of-seven series. You have the best from each division making the playoffs, with a couple wild card teams (one added for 2012 season).  Only 10 teams, as opposed to 16 in the NBA and NHL, make the playoffs. While baseball certainly has some teams that have had much more success than others as of late, you have to go back to the 90’s Yankees to find the last dynasty (1996, 1998-2000).  Certainly parity exists in baseball.

The NFL is somewhere in between.  It allowed for three division winners and three wildcards in the 80s and 90s, and then went to 4 division winners and 2 wildcards today.  I think the NFL is does it best because, while it allows for six teams from each conference to make the playoffs, it rewards the top two with a first-round bye.  The league makes it enticing for teams to want to finish in the top two, as opposed to other leagues where the only real reward (because of parity), is one extra home game in a five or seven-game series.  I think it’s safe to say that the closest we have from the NFL to a dynasty would be the New England Patriots – three trophies in four years certainly qualifies.  As a Bills fan, I hate the Patriots, but really appreciated their team.  I enjoyed watching Brady as an underdog against the Rams, and then as a favourite two and three years later.  I think it’s safe to say, as we enter the 2012 season we cannot say that there is one team that will dominate from start to finish.  Agree?  There are teams that are much better, but none are that dominant.  Watching Joe Montana in the 80’s, Aikman and co. in the 90’s, and Brady in the early 2000’s, were something special.

To wrap all this up, here are some parting notes:

  • We remember dynasties, and tend to forget the teams that are just a blip on the radar (ie. win only once)
  • We can be sure that when a dominant team wins the championship, they deserve it, as are undoubtedly the best
  • Eight-team playoff formats work if there is parity
  • The NFL’s structure is the best because it rewards the top teams with a first-round bye
  • You will remember the Lakers (80’s and 2000’s), Celtics, Bulls, Islanders, Oilers, 49ers, Patriots, Yankees because you watched their dynasties
  • You probably don’t remember too much about the Buccaneers win in 2003, the Lightning in 2004, the Pistons in 2004 or the White Sox in 2005…because they weren’t dominant!
I welcome comments below.  Are you pro-dynasty?  Or perhaps you are pro-parity?  If the latter, please read tomorrow’s article from Ben Kerr – “The Rise of Parity”.
…and that is the Last Word.

 

NHL Draft Prospect Profile #56: Tomas Hyka

Drafted 171st overall by the Los Angeles Kings.

Tomas Hyka was eligible for the 2011 draft but went undrafted.  The Czech born winger was invited to the Philadelphia Flyers training camp last fall, and the Flyers reportedly offered him a contract, but then learned that under the CBA they were unable to sign an undrafted player who played the previous season in Europe and was under 22 years of age.  This was a major screw-up on the Flyers behalf as they were reportedly looking at Hyka in last years draft, but passed on him thinking that they could afford to take the gamble of signing him as an undrafted player.  You can read the full story about this at BroadStreet Hockey, at CSNPhilly and at SBNation Philly. Hyka spent this season with the Gatineau Olympiques in the QMJHL and if he passes through the draft, he’ll be free to sign with a team in the summer, but we think its highly unlikely he goes undrafted again.  Like Tanner Pearson, Seth Griffith, and Anton Zlobin, we think that 2012 will be the year these re-entries are surely drafted into the NHL.

Right Wing
Born Mar 23 1993 — Mlada Boleslav, CZE
Height 5.10 — Weight 160 — Shoots Right

2010-11 Mlada Boleslav BK Czech 13 1 0 1 6 -8
2011-12 Gatineau Olympiques QMJHL 50 20 44 64 30 14  4 1 1 2 0

Hyka is another great skater in this year’s draft class.  He’s got great top end speed, and really good acceleration.  He’s agile and extremely shifty, and uses his edges extremely well making sudden stops and starts, changes of direction, or changes of pace, giving defenders fits.  He’s got good balance, but needs some work on his core strength so he can be stronger on his skates and not knocked around as easily as he is.

In the offensive zone Hyka is a good puckhandler who isn’t afraid to take the puck to the net despite his frame.  He has a decent shot and release, but is more of a playmaker off the wing than a scorer.  He has good vision and makes crisp tape to tape passes putting teammates in good positions to convert.  Hyka possesses excellent hockey sense and offensive instinct.

The biggest question on Hyka is his size and strength.  He can be overpowered off the puck at times by bigger stronger defenders.  He can also be overpowered in the defensive zone despite his attentive backchecking.  Hyka is a willing and committed back checker.  We feel that he works hard in the defensive zone, has good positioning and is aggressive and involved in the play.  However his physical short comings really detract from his overall effectiveness in his own end of the ice.  He quite simply will need to put a lot of muscle onto his frame before he is ready for the rigors of NHL Hockey.  Hyka could also stand to be more consistent, as there are times where he can disappear for stretches.

Hyka might be undersized, but his skating and his skill level may be enough that he can still carve out a place in the NHL.  We’d compare his potential to be a player similar to Tyler Ennis of the Buffalo Sabres.

As always leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @lastwordBKerr

… and thats the Last Word.

Death of Dominance, and the Rise of Parity in Professional Sports

In football, seldom has the best team in the regular season hoisted the Vince Lombardi trophy at the end of the year.  Through just a little research, I found that this is the norm across almost every sport that has a playoff format – NFL, MLB, NHL and NBA.  The English Premier League, for example, and most other soccer leagues around the world do not have a playoff system for determining its domestic winner.  Instead, the team with the most points at the end of the regular season is declared the winner.  Before we open discussion about the relevancy of a playoff system, and subsequent articles regarding the efficacy of promoting either “Pro-dynasty/Pro-dominance” or “Pro-parity”, let’s first get a handle on how much change there has been in who has won the various league championships.  For this, we have compared championship winners from the 1980’s versus the last ten years. Has there been a rise of parity in professional sports?

Here is a table showing each sport’s winner, along with the position in which they finished the regular season in their respective conferences, over the last 10 years:

NFL / seed MLB / seed NHL / seed NBA / seed
2003 Tampa /2 Florida /4 New Jersey /2  San Antonio /1
2004 New England/1 Boston /4 Tampa Bay /1  Detroit /3
2005 New England/2 Chi White Sox /1  —————-  San Antonio /2
2006 Pittsburgh/6 St.Louis /3 Carolina /2 Miami /2
2007 Indianapolis/ 3 Boston /1 Anaheim /2  San Antonio /3
2008 NY Giants /5 Philadelphia /2 Detroit /1  Boston /1
2009 Pittsburgh /2 NY Yankees /1 Pittsburgh /4  LA Lakers /1
2010 New Orleans /1 San Francisco/2 Chicago /2  LA Lakers /1
2011 Green Bay/6 St.Louis /4 Boston /3 Dallas /3
2012 NY Giants /4  ?  6 or 8 seed?  ?

 

Here is a table showing each sport’s winner, along with position in which they finished the regular season in their respective conferences, from 1980-1989:

NFL MLB NHL NBA
1980  Pittsburgh /2  Philadelphia /2  NY Islanders /2  LA Lakers /1
1981 *split-season (strike)  Oakland /4 * Los Angeles /2  NY Islanders /1  Boston /T1
1982  San Francisco /1  St. Louis /1  NY Islanders/1  LA Lakers /1
1983  Washington/1  Baltimore /2  NY Islanders /1  Philadelphia /1
1984  Los Angeles/1  Detroit /1  Edmonton /1  Boston /1
1985  San Fran /1  Kansas City /2  Edmonton /1  LA Lakers /1
1986  Chicago /1  NY Mets /1  Montreal /5  Boston /1
1987  NY Giants /1  Minnesota /2  Edmonton /1  LA Lakers /1
1988  Washington/3  Los Angeles /2  Edmonton /2  LA Lakers /1
1989  San Fran /2  Oakland /1  Calgary /1  Detroit /1

 

The Rise of Parity in Professional Sports; The Death of Dominance

NFL Analysis

With the exception of Oakland in 1981, there were very few upsets in which team won the Superbowl between 1980 – 1989. Even then, the Raiders in 1981 were still a good team, despite being the first wildcard team to win the Superbowl.  Only a couple of years before, the league expanded, and the playoffs allowed for one extra wildcard team, for which the Raiders are very thankful.  It was the only time a non-division winner won the championship through the decade.

Over the past ten years, the Superbowl was won four times by a team that did not finish as a division-winner, including two number-six seeds (Green Bay and Pittsburgh) who barely squeaked into the playoffs.  Of course those teams were very good, though.  They say defence wins championships, which couldn’t be more true in Pittsburgh’s case.  And if you recall, Green Bay started their Superbowl-winning season off horribly, but rallied to make the playoffs.  Without a doubt, Aaron Rogers was coming into his own, and the Pack were far from a sixth-seed team.

Further, in the last ten years only two number-one seeds have won the Superbowl – New Orleans in 2010, and the Pats in 2004.  Compare that with 80’s where six Superbowls were won by top seeds.

I suppose times have changed in the NFL, as 12 teams have a realistic shot at winning the Superbowl.

MLB Analysis

Baseball is a little different, because through the 80’s, only the pennant-winners had the right to play for the World Series.  Therefore, every championship was won by a #1 or #2 seed, obviously.  We will discuss the pros and cons of having such a shortened playoff structure in our follow-up articles.

Compare the 80’s with the last ten years and there are some glaring differences.  With the expansion of the playoffs to include three division winners plus a wildcard, there are now eight teams vying to make the World Series, four from each league.  In the last nine years (2012 is still undecided) the World Series was won by a team that finished as either number-three or four seed.  Had the expansion not have happened, these teams obviously would not have had the chance to play.  Further, only three times has the best team through the regular season hoisted the trophy at the end of the year.

NHL Analysis

After looking at the table above, one would think the NHL has a decent history of the best teams winning the Stanley Cup.  However, when compared with the 1980’s my opinion changed.  Through the 80’s, the Cup was hoisted by the number-one seed seven times.  It was also dominated by the dynasties of New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers, with a spattering of other winners here and there.  Even the Flames, who won in 1989, were the best regular season team.  Basically, the best team in the regular season, won.

The same cannot be said of the years since 2003.  Only twice did a top-seed win the Stanley Cup – Detroit and Tampa Bay.  This year, 2012, the Stanley Cup is being played between a sixth and eight seed.  Further, there is not a single repeat winner over the past 10 years, unless the New Jersey Devils come back to defeat the Los Angeles Kings.  Compare that with the dominance of the Isles in the early 80’s, and the Oilers in the mid-late 80’s. Why have dynasties gone by the wayside in hockey (see below).

NBA Analysis

Staistically, the NBA has changed the least.  Through the 80’s, which obviously dominated by the Lakers, Celtics, and to a lesser extent the Sixers, in every case the NBA Championship went to the number-1 seed.  When compared to the winners over the last 10 years, for the most part, not much has changed.  Six NBA titles were won by one of the two top seeds.  Further, there hasn’t been a seed lower than third win the NBA Championships.

We will go into greater depth in the next article, which will examine the “pros” of dynasties and dominance, for which basketball had two in the 80’s – the Lakers and Celtics.  Whether you were a basketball fan or not, Magic-Bird (and Kareem) was just something you knew about.  The star players, on the best teams.  The teams that were the best in the regular season won the title.  They were the most talented, the deepest, and in every case, they celebrated a championship at the end of the season.

We can debate whether or not there were any dynasties over the last ten years, but it’s hard to argue with the dominant Lakers teams in the early 2000’s (2000-2002, 2009, 2010), and the San Antonio Spurs (2003, 2005, 2007).  These two franchises have dominated the hardwood, carrying on the tradition of the aforementioned Lakers and Celtics of the 80’s, and the Chicago Bulls of the 90’s.

The NBA has changed very little in that there have been dynasties consistently from the early 80’s through today.  In fact, one can argue that we might be on the cusp of another in the Miami Heat (at least they appear destined on paper).  Why hasn’t there been much change?  Perhaps it is because of the relatively small roster and the fact that it is by far the sport that can be dominated by the fewest number of players.  Not to say they don’t need a supporting cast, it’s just that two players can have a much more profound outcome on the game than in any other sport.  For proof, just look at some of the dynasties and their duos that ran the show – Magic/Kareem, Jordan/Pippen, Shaq/Kobe and Duncan/Robinson (for their 1999 and 2003 wins).

 

What are the Reasons for the Change?

  • Free Agency has created a system where you cannot accumulate too much talent on any one team.  Once players win, they want to get paid, which raises the team’s salary and key pieces move to other clubs.  For a perfect example, take a look at the Chicago Blackhawks in the off-season following their Stanley Cup win.  They were able to keep many of their star players, but role players who were so essential in their win, were ready to be paid accordingly.  The problem was that the salary cap didn’t afford this for the team.  Salary caps and luxury taxes have caused a greater dispersion of talent.
  • We also have better coaching than ever.  Technology, and increased video review and preparation have caused “over-coaching”.  The use of defence-heavy systems in hockey and basketball allow teams with less talent compete on the ice and on the court against teams with better talent (on paper).  Sports have become much more technical.
  • Better scouting and teams spending more on player development, nutrition, training and other off-field aspects have taken away some of the advantages that were around before.  While there will always be teams who are run better than others, the gaps were wider before.
  • Expansion has helped to spread the talent to more and more teams and reduced the ability of any one team to load up on talent.

So is this era of parity good for professional sports fans?

There are two schools of thought; Pro-parity, and Pro-dynasty/Pro-dominance.  For Mike’s explanation of Pro-Dynasty, please check back tomorrow.  For Ben’s Pro-Parity discussion, check back on Monday.  Both will be published at 6am.  As always, please feel free to share your thoughts in the comment box below.

 

NHL Draft Prospect Profile #55: Dane Fox

It has been a tumultous season for Dane Fox, but one that featured his personal growth as a player.  Fox started the season with some offseason rumors where he was apparently having some type of personal issue, which caused him to miss the start of the London Knights Training Camp.  I won’t speculate on what that was, but we do know that Fox would eventually show up, and contribute offensively for the first time for the Knights, moving from the energy role he had in previous years.  Then came the Greg McKegg trade, and Fox was moving from the first place in the OHL Knights, to the dead last in the league Erie Otters.  While many would see this as a negative, it wasn’t for Fox, as he would become Erie’s number 1 centre, a go to component of the team’s offence, and be named an Alternate Captain.  Fox would prove he was more than just an energy line player scoring nearly a PPG on the Otters.   Fox, like teammate Adam Pelech, and Mike Winther of the WHL’s Prince Albert Raiders, show that good draft prospects also exist on poor clubs overall.

Center
Born Oct 13 1993 — Thamesville, ONT
Height 6.00 — Weight 182 — Shoots Left

2009-10 London Knights OHL 26 1 6 7 13 0 2 0 1 1 0
2010-11 London Knights OHL 51 11 12 23 55 -2 6 1 0 1 6
2011-12 London Knights OHL 34 13 19 32 54 13
2011-12 Erie Otters OHL 28 10 12 22 33 -25

Fox’s biggest asset offensively is his intelligence.  He’s able to read plays well, and his decision making is good, as he chooses the right times to make a move on a defender, pass to a teammate, or fire a shot on net.  Fox has a hard, and accurate wrist shot with a good release.  He has good vision and makes strong passes to his teammates. Despite his size, Fox is not afraid to battle along the boards, and does so effectively against larger opponents.

Fox is a solid defensive player.  He backchecks hard, plays well positionally, and creates a lot of turnovers by intercepting passes.  He takes away time and space from opponents, and is good in puck battles.  Fox has good defensive hockey sense and positioning, and he is normally in the right spot to cut down shooting and passing lanes.  He is also an effective Penalty Killer, though he saw his time playing on this unit reduce in Erie as he was needed for offence.

Fox has an unorthodox skating style.  However it works for him as he has good top end speed, and accelerates quickly.  His agility and balance are also above average and he’s a shifty player out there.  Fox also has good edgework, mobility, and pivots, allowing him to also be a good defensive forward.

Fox is definitely a late 2nd/early 3rd round talent for this year’s draft.  As long as his personal issues (whatever those may be) are behind him we expect to see him taken. He’s shown the ability to play both a pesky game, and to provide some offence as well.  We’d compare Fox’s potential to Ryan O’Reilly of the Colorado Avalanche.

As always, feel free to leave your comments about Fox, his game and my post below.  Please note we are not a rumor site, especially when it comes to the personal life of an 18 or 19 year old kid, so we will not be approving any comments that contain unfounded or unproven claims about the issues that were present for Fox last summer.

… and thats the Last Word.

follow me on twitter @lastWordBKerr

Triple Crown, Canadian Fillies Style – The Woodbine Oaks

The Triple Crown, Canadian style, kicks off this weekend at Woodbine Racetrack with the 3 year old fillies going to gate in the Woodbine Oaks. The $500,000 Oaks is the feature race on Sunday’s card, along with two co-features – the Alywow Stakes and The Queens Plate Trial.

Sunday has the largest purse total of the year thus far, with more than $1 million up for grabs in ten races.  The Oaks has nine talented fillies, which will go to post in this one and one-eighth mile event.  All are looking for their chance to bring home $300,000. It seems as though there are two with a much better chance than the rest:

Dixie Strike is the 6/5 morning line favorite for the Oaks; not only is she the favorite for this race, but is also the Queens Plate favorite this year. This is the same scenario that last year’s Oaks and Derby winner Inglorious went through. Both Dixie Strike and Inglorious have the same mother, Noble Strike, and if Dixie pulls off both victories it will be the first time sisters will have won both the Oaks and the Derby.

Dixie will be in tough against a very strong opponent on Sunday in Northern Passion. This winner of the Fury Stakes seems to really enjoy the polytrack, and her strong closing sprint style seems right in line to stretch out. These two look very strong in this field of nine, and will without a doubt try to hold off the other seven competitors.  It’s their race to lose.

The Queens Plate Trial has 11 horses entered and seems to only be missing four of the early favorites for the Queens Plate in three weeks. Beeker St, my early favorite for the Plate, runs Sunday, but after his last win where Making Amends nearly passed him, leads me to believe Making Amends may be more likely to stretch out over the mile. The Trial seems to be a very competitive race, with these horses racing against the likes of Peyton, Classic Bryce, Menlo Castle, Big Creek, and Drago’s Best. I believe if there is a heavy favorite in this race that he will have a very hard time winning; therefore I expect very nice payoffs in this dash.

The early feature on Sunday’s card is the Alywow Stakes, a race for three-year old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs on the turf where there is no shortage of talent. At first look I see Tu Endie Wei, an absolute monster filly, going short distances. Recently when attempting to race over a mile, she was caught by Dixie Strike in the final stretch, but held onto second. It’s possible the rest of the field is running for second place money, because this filly is just that fast. Make no mistake, I am not trying to take anything away from the rest of the field because they are all capable of making the big upset.

Trainer Mark Casse will be trying hard to beat Endei Wei as he is putting five horses in the gate. That’s right, five of the nine starters are trained by last year’s record-breaking trainer. Gonzalez and Lynch both have fillies looking to upset; Man Stuff is unbeaten in two starts and Blue Heart may love the cut back in distance. As aforementioned, Tu Endie Wei will be looking to get back on track shortening up against this very tough field.

With all the well deserved hype in the USA about the Triple Crown and I’ll Have Another, the excitement can be felt with Canadian/Woodbine racing. The fillies start their Triple Crown bids and the boys are looking to find out who the real studs of the division are en route to the Queens Plate.

Here are a few videos from Woodbine you might enjoy…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ0R7HMWyFM

And the races for June 3:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry/WO060312CAN-EQB.html

…and that is the Last Word.

Euro 2012: Can the Co-hosts From Poland Escape Group A?

Euro 2012: Who will top Group A?

Here we go soccer fans! Europeans and non-Euros will be watching this international competition unfold seeing that it is arguably the most challenging and exciting tournament in soccer and it kicks off June 8. I believe the Euro is the hardest tournament to win because there are only 16 teams that will be a part of it. Out of these 16 contenders, I would say they are the best 13 of the top 18 teams in the world. There are no African teams, no Asian teams; none of the normally easy-to-beat teams you would find in the World Cup. All of these groups are expected to be very tough indeed. I will be offering my thoughts about each group as well as my predictions as to which nations will qualify for the knockout phase. Feel free to drop a few lines of commentary below. I welcome any and all thoughts.

Group A – Czech Republic, Greece, Russia, Poland

The Czech Republic finished second in their qualification group, 14 points behind cup-holders Spain who ended with 24 points, edging Scotland by only one point, and then eliminated Montenegro in the playoff to finally qualify. Once a powerhouse in 2004 with the likes of Pavel Nedved and Karel Poborsky, the Czechs have struggled to produce any real talent since the departures of these stars. Now, they will rely heavily on Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Czech who is fresh from Champions League victory with Chelsea, Arsenal star Tomas Rosicky, and Jaroslav Plasil currently at Bordeaux to at least finish in a respectable place. The above mentioned names are not of the same calibre and to win this tournament, players like the former are desperately needed.  The Czechs need a leader who will take them to victory. Unfortunately this time around, they only have those who will lead them out of the tourney. Slim chance for the Czechs this year.

Greece surprised everyone in 2004 when they opened the Euro competition with a win over hosts Portugal and then ended with the most important victory again defeating Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. in the final. The Greeks qualified first in Group F, two points ahead of runner-up Croatia, and also went undefeated throughout the qualifying round. The defence was stellar only conceding five goals which is an asset going into the final stages. For Greece to go far in this tournament, they will need to play as a unit just like in 2004 in Portugal. That year though, they had a more experienced side. This time, not much has changed for the Greeks so they still stand a chance of making it through. Look for Greece to pull some upsets.

Four years ago, Russia was the surprise team at the Euro championships with a young squad. Not many picked the Russians to make it out of their group with Spain, Greece, and Sweden. Russia ended up losing the very first game 4-1 to the Spaniards, but followed up with two consecutive victories over the other two contenders which placed the Russians in second. They then went on to defeat the Netherlands in the quarterfinals who were heavily favoured to win Euro 2008. Russia then lost in the semi-finals to eventual victors, Spain, 3-0. In qualifying, they topped Group B convincingly with 17 goals scored and only leaked four goals against. They continue to surprise teams with a quick-pace attack and disciplined defending. Russia does not lack experience as well with Dick Advocaat as head coach and with proficient players such as playmaker Andrey Arshavin, top-notch striker Roman Pavlyuchenko, strong defender Yuri Zhirkov, and ‘keeper Vyacheslav Malafeev. The Russians may very well surprise everyone again.

Poland did not have to qualify for this tournament since it is a co-host nation. This could be detrimental to their chances of qualifying as the Poles have not played competitively in two years. Therefore, not much is known about Poland at this time and it is very difficult to pinpoint their expectations. Usually in these competitions, the host nation tends to get out of the group phase, but I really don’t see that happening here. The Greeks, Russians, and even the Czechs will prove to be too heavy to handle.

My predictions for Group A:

1) Russia

2) Greece

3) Czech Republic

4) Poland

Check back tomorrow for analysis of Group B…

… and that is the Last Word.

 

Please feel free to leave comments below.

NHL Prospect Profile #54: Matt Murray

Drafted 83rd overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Despite being just 17 years old, Matt Murray started the season as the starting goalie for the OHL’s Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds.  While Murray struggled at times, he really improved over the course of the season.  After losing the starting job when Sault Ste. Marie traded for Jack Campbell at mid season, Murray handled the situation well, and was ready when called upon.  Murray was arguably Team Canada’s MVP (challenging Matt Dumba for the honour) as the team’s starting goalie in the IIHF World Championships.  Murray would help lead the team to a Bronze medal.  It might have been more, and Murray was fantastic in the semi-final against the eventual champs from the United stats.  He nearly stole that game for Canada but came up just short in the end.  It is expected that Murray will return to Sault Ste. Marie next year where he should once again be the Team’s number one goalie.

The goaltending position is becoming more and more a big man’s game, and at 6’4: Murray possesses the ideal size that NHL teams look for today.  Murray is however very skinny with just 160 lbs on that 6.04 frame.  He needs to put on some serious muscle mass and this will make him into a bit of a long term project before he will be able to reach the NHL.

Goalie
Born May 25 1994 — Thunder Bay, ONT
Height 6.04 — Weight 160 — Shoots Left – Glove Left

 

 

Murray has a great glove hand.  He is able to make a number of great glove saves.  His legs are also extremely quick and he shuts down the bottom of the net well.  He has very good reflexes and he shuts down the five hole rapidly and effectively, avoiding a major propble area for most tall goaltenders.  His rebound control is good, and has gotten better as the year has gone on.  Murray is strong positionally and comes far out of his net to cut down angles and reduce the amount of net that the shooter has to look at.  He is almost always square to the shooter and recovers quickly to square up again on rebounds.  His side to side movements are good, but not great, this is one area where he can improve.

Like many young goalies today Murray loves to come out of his net and handle the puck.  However his skills in this aspect are average.  His skating, even for a goaltender isn’t great and this can get him caught at times.  He also needs a little bit of work on his puckhandling and passing which are adequate, but not great.

Murray’s mental game is good.  He bounces back nicely from a bad goal or a bad game and doesn’t allow those things to linger.  He is extremely confident in his net and at his best when he plays with that confidence coming far out of his net to challenge shooters.  Murray’s ability to elevate his game in the critical moments during the IIHF U18 is also a very good sign for the young goalie.

Murray may be a few years away, and he’s a bit of a project.  However Murray possesses great size and athleticism, and these attributes ensure that he has a ton of potential going forward.  Murray could challenge for a number 1 job in time, however that is a few years away.

… and thats the Last Word.

 

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Rankings

#1- Nail Yakupov
#2- Mikhail Grigorenko
#3- Ryan Murray
#4- Alex Galchenyuk
#5- Matt Dumba
#6- Filip Forsberg
#7- Jacob Trouba
#8- Morgan Rielly
#9- Sebastian Collberg
#10- Griffin Reinhart

#11- Radek Faksa
#12- Teuvo Teravainen
#13- Brendan Gaunce
#14- Cody Ceci
#15- Zemgus Girgensons
#16- Olli Maatta
#17- Derrick Pouliot
#18- Matt Finn
#19- Malcolm Subban
#20- Pontus Aberg

#21- Slater Koekkoek
#22- Ludvig Bystrom
#23- Hampus Lindholm
#24- Brady Skjei
#25- Tomas Hertl
#26- Henrik Samuelsson
#27- Andrei Vasilevski
#28- Phil DiGiuseppe
#29- Michael Matheson
#30- Martin Frk

#31- Tom Wilson
#32- Colton Sissons
#33- Stefan Matteau
#34- Dalton Thrower
#35- Tim Bozon
#36- Damon Severson
#37- Tanner Pearson
#38- Oscar Dansk
#39-  Scott Laughton
#40 – Jordan Schmaltz

#41- Nicolas Kerdiles
#42- Cristoval “Boo” Nieves
#43 – Ville Pokka
#44- Daniil Zharkov
#45- Jarrod Maidens
#46- Jake McCabe
#47- Scott Kosmachuk
#48- Patrick Sieloff
#49 – Lukas Sutter
#50 – Andreas Athanasiou

#51 – Brady Vail
#52- Mike Winther
#53- Trevor Carrick
#54- Matt Murray
#55- Dane Fox
#56- Tomas Hyka
#57- Adam Pelech
#58- Anton Slepyshev
#59- Nick Ebert
#60 – Gemel Smith

#61- Kevin Roy
#62- Calle Andersson
#63- Dillon Fournier
#64- Branden Troock
#65 – Charles Hudon
#66- Brandon Whitney
#67- Brett Kulak
#68- Troy Bourke
#69 – Matia Marcantuoni
#70 – Mitch Moroz

Rankings 71-80

HM1 – Mark Jankowski
HM2 – Brian Hart
HM 3 – Devin Shore

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French Open: The Most Interesting Major of the Year

On Sunday, the second major of the tennis season began and, in my opinion, is also the most interesting.

What makes the French Open the most interesting major of the year? One word: “clay”. Unlike hard-court or grass where a dominant serve will carry you quite far, tennis on the clay surface favors court movement and conditioning over power. One simply needs to look at the dominance by Rafael Nadal or Justine Henin (two of the best movers in the history of the game) at the French for textbook examples. So with that being said, who are the favorites to take the title this year? Let’s begin with the ATP.

Rafael Nadal is certainly the odds on favorite, he’s won 6 of the last 7 French Open titles and his only loss in that time was to a man that is not even in the tournament this year (Robin Soderling). The question then becomes, who in the men’s draw can slay the giant?

Perhaps the winner of 4 of the last 5 majors, Novak Djokovic? He has the conditioning and is arguably the best player in the game today, but clay is his weakest surface and he’s never reached the French Open final so it’s doubtful. Add to that the fact that he lost to Nadal in Monte Carlo and Rome (both on clay).

Roger Federer is always a threat to win any tournament on any surface, but at nearly 31 (old in tennis years) it is unlikely that he will win his second French Open title.

In my opinion, Andy Murray and David Ferrer are the only other potential challengers to Nadal, as both have the movement and conditioning, and Murray especially has been knocking at the door for his first major title for the last couple of years. Look for the Murray/Nadal semi-final to be the match of the tournament and look for Nadal to win title number 7.

The women’s draw is much more wide open, and has been since Justine Henin’s first retirement and Serena Williams’ injury troubles. Number 1 seed Victoria Azarenka has been incredible this year casting aside doubts about her stamina and composure. She has dominated the winter/spring hard court season and her clay court game has improved greatly as well, as evidenced by two clay final appearances this year in Stuttgart and on the blue clay of Madrid. Vika will have a very long and arduous road ahead of her if she wants to win her second major though.

This is probably Maria Sharapova’s best chance to complete the career slam given her recent success, including a clay title in Madrid. Sharapova will have stiff competition with a likely match against the far superior mover Caroline Wozniacki coming in the quarter finals. Another quarter final should feature defending champion Li Na against the number 14 seed and runner-up last year, Francesca Schiavone. Schiavone is matched up in her round of 16 draw with number 4 seed and Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, but I believe Petra will be upset in the likely event these two meet given that grass suits her better than clay. Look for Li Na to defeat Schiavone and also move past the Sharapova/Wozniacki winner into the final.

The top half features the aforementioned Vika in a likely quarter final against Sam Stosur, who was the finalist in 2010 and the 2011 US open champ. Stosur is another fantastic mover and her arms are bigger than a lot of the men’s players. Getting past Stosur will be difficult for Azarenka and the semis will be even tougher. The remaining QF and potential matchup for Azarenka is likely to feature Agnieska Radwanska and unorthodox lefty, Angelique Kerber, with hometown favorite Marion Bartoli having recently departed. Radwanksa is basically all movement with very little power, which isn’t as big of a handicap on clay. Kerber has shot up the rankings with a breakthrough performance at the US open last year, but Radwanska is the class of this quarter and should advance.

As for who will emerge from the top half and face the defending champ in the final, I believe Vika has the tools and, even on the red canvas, can overpower Radwanska. Li Na’s speed and endurance will serve her well in the finals against Vika and she is my pick to repeat as French Open champion.
Any way it shakes out, expect to see some entertaining tennis and a few surprises, two of which have already happened in the first round exits of Serena Williams and Andy Roddick.

As a proud Canadian I’m hoping Milos Raonic will fare well and continue to climb the ATP rankings.

…and that is the Last Word.