The 2020 NFL season is still on pace to begin at its regularly scheduled time, but that could change with the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a decent chance that part of the season will be shortened, which could help certain teams with their quest for the Super Bowl. NFL betting lines currently have the New Orleans Saints with +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl, which could pay off if you invest now.
New Orleans Saints A Smart Super Bowl Bet
Successfully picking a Super Bowl winner is no easy task, especially in the midst of a pandemic. The natural volatility of the NFL’s one-game playoff structure naturally invites outlier performances that can completely mess up even the most detail-oriented analysis. When trying to find a good Super Bowl bet, one should look for a team with a realistic chance to win that still gives a worthwhile payout and is being somewhat overlooked.
The New Orleans Saints fit that description to a tee. At +1200, the Saints are the fourth-most likely team to win it all, behind just the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers. Two of those teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV, while the Baltimore Ravens have the reigning MVP and are coming off one of the most prolific regular seasons in recent memory.
Historically speaking, Vegas tends to know what they’re talking about when it comes to Super Bowl odds. While teams like last year’s 49ers can come out of nowhere to challenge for a title, more often than not the winner is someone that entered the season with high odds. The Saints have those high odds, and they stand the most to gain amid the COVID confusion.
Why the Saints Are Overlooked
It’s no secret that the most important position in football – by a wide margin – is the quarterback. It’s important to have a well-rounded team, but the quarterback easily has the biggest impact on overall team success. The Saints have one of the best passers in the league in Drew Brees. At least, during the beginning of the season, anyway.
Over the past few seasons, Brees has started to slow down towards the end of the year. This, along with a few unfortunate twists of fate, ultimately resulted in unexpected playoff exits for New Orleans. If COVID shortens the season in any meaningful way, this will ultimately lower the burden for Brees. This could lead to a higher percentage of elite play, which will only bolster the Saints Super Bowl chances.
Considering the mandatory two-week quarantine for players testing positive, it’s never been more important to have a good backup quarterback. The Saints are better equipped than any other team to handle a quarantined quarterback. Jameis Winston is easily the best backup in the league, and is better than a handful of starters. The team appears to have faith in Taysom Hill, although there isn’t much of a sample to go off.
The Saints have a stacked roster and, top to bottom, the best quarterback depth chart in the league. A shortened season should improve Brees’ odds of elite play in the postseason, and the backups should be able to keep the ship afloat if Brees misses time for any reason. At +1200, the Saints have a good chance to be a worthwhile betting investment.
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