We’re almost all the way through the entire NFL season. It seems like just yesterday we were worried if we’d even have a season at all. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 15 DraftKings plays.
DraftKings Plays for Week 15
Week 14 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/53Fgupf1lF— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 14, 2020
Looking back at Week 14, it was better again. This week 63.3% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way tied at an 83.3% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver and running back groups brought up the rear tied at a 50% success rate. For me personally, it was incredibly frustrating. The GPPs did not do well at all. As for the cash game lineups, I missed doubling up ($400 swing) by less than a point. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the picks and get back into profit in the Week 15 DraftKings plays.
- Week 14 – $400 → $111 ($289 LOSS)
- Year Total – $5,177 → $3,597 ($1,580 LOSS)
Week 15 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (KC) – $7,900 @ NO
MVP front-runner, Patrick Mahomes, is coming off his worst real-life performance of the season. He threw more interceptions last week than he had on the entire year to that point. Even still, Mahomes finished with 24.6 DraftKings points. It was also the first time with less than 40 pass attempts since Week 7. This week he gets a matchup against the New Orleans Saints in the dome. That should be conducive for a high-scoring shootout with a lot of passing on both sides. Another 40+ pass attempts is certainly a good possibility. If that’s the case, in this matchup, in a dome, it’s hard to imagine Mahomes finishing with less than 24 DraftKings points.
Most Pass Yards per game in NFL history
1. Patrick Mahomes 309.5
2. Drew Brees 280.3
3. Andrew Luck 275.2*min 40 games pic.twitter.com/9lUrvZOqwS
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 15, 2020
Jared Goff (LAR) – $6,300 v NYJ
Jared Goff has certainly been a rollercoaster this year. He has three games with at least 28 DraftKings points and the same amount with less than 12 DraftKings points. That’s been a microcosm for the Los Angeles Rams season as a whole. They ended last year as one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL only to switch to one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL for the first half of the year. Now they are back to one of the most pass-heavy over the last month. This matchup against the New York Jets is a great one. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL in terms of passing EPA defense. The Rams have the second-highest implied team total on the slate. This is, admittedly, more of a tournament play with the Rams being such heavy favorites and Goff being likely lower rostered than many other quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $5,900 @ ARI
18 carries for 106 yards. That was the rushing line that Jalen Hurts posted last week in his starting debut. The only other quarterback in NFL history to do that was Lamar Jackson. Hurts had 13.6 DraftKings points on just rushing alone. He finished with 23.3 DraftKings points in all. This week he gets a pace-up matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are the fastest-paced team in the NFL and this matchup is projected to be the fastest-paced matchup this week. The Cardinals also play more man defense than most teams, which is especially susceptible to running quarterbacks. The Philadelphia Eagles are also underdogs in this one which should increase the number of dropbacks for Hurts this week. This looks like a matchup made in heaven for Hurts at this price.
Others to Consider: Deshaun Watson (HOU) – $6,800 @ IND, Tom Brady (TB) – $6,700 @ ATL, Drew Brees (NO) – $5,900 v KC
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (NO) – $7,400 v KC
Drew Brees is back and with him, should come Alvin Kamara’s target share. Michael Thomas is also ruled out for this one so that should boost it even more. Game script should also be in Kamara’s favor as well as the Saints should be either in a tight battle or trailing the Kansas City Chiefs in this one. The matchup is also nice in that the Chiefs have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season. Kamara’s price has been reduced based on his usage with Taysom Hill under center. This is a price to take advantage of in this spot. Kamara should be one of the first players locked into cash game lineups this week.
Derrick Henry (TEN) – $9,500 v DET
Derrick Henry has been on fire lately. He has two games of 39+ DraftKings points in his last three. He’s also rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five outings as well. The whole “DHember” narrative is more coincidence than anything. Last week’s explosion came against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. This week, another bad defense is on tap when Henry gets to face the Detroit Lions. The Lions are the fifth-worst rushing EPA defense in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans have the highest implied team total of any team this week. They are also heavily favored so the game script is likely in his favor as well. Everything looks like it’s aligning for another week in which Henry puts up a monster performance.
Derrick Henry now has 4 career games with 200 rushing yards & 2 rushing touchdowns, which breaks a tie with Hall of Famers Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson for the most in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/2mibUGv19d
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 13, 2020
Jonathan Taylor (IND) – $7,200 v HOU
Jonathan Taylor has been heating up lately. He’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points in three straight games played now. He’s seen at least 16 touches in all three as well. All three have been great matchups and this time he’s getting a rematch against this same Houston Texans team that he put up 135 total yards and a score on two weeks ago. This week the Indianapolis Colts are playing at home and coming in with the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate. The Texans have the second-worst rushing EPA defense in the NFL. Assuming Taylor sees another 15+ touches, he should be able to return nice value again in this one.
Kenyan Drake (ARI) – $5,500 v PHI
It’s a bit confusing that Kenyan Drake’s price hasn’t one up yet. He’s now scored at least 13.8 DraftKings points in five straight contests including touchdowns in four straight games as well. This week’s matchup against the Eagles isn’t a great one as they haven’t allowed many DraftKings points to running backs so far this year, but a deeper look shows they are in the bottom-third in terms of rushing EPA defense. As mentioned before, this should be one of the fastest-paced matchups on the slate so the volume should be there for Drake again. This matchup could look even better if Chase Edmonds is forced to miss. That would boost Drake’s snap count and target share. Even if Edmonds suits up, Drake is in a nice spot at this price.
Others to Consider: Cam Akers (LAR) – $6,600 v NYJ, Raheem Mostert (SF) – $5,800 @ DAL, David Johnson (HOU) – $5,100 @ IND, Leonard Fournette (TB) – $4,500 @ ATL
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown (TEN) – $7,600 v DET
A.J. Brown has been awesome this season. He’s now the WR9 in terms of PPR points per game. He’s seen a steady diet of targets all year now. Brown has only seen less than six targets in a game once all year and only seen less than seven targets twice. The Titans are doing a great job of getting the ball in their playmakers’ hands. This week’s matchup against the Lions is about as good as it gets. Detroit sports one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the pass as well. As mentioned before, Tennessee has the highest implied team total on the slate. If Brown gets his usual dose of targets, he should be able to feast in this one.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – $6,300 @ DAL
Brandon Aiyuk is on an incredible hot streak. In his last five games played, he’s scored at least 19.7 DraftKings points in all five. During that span, he hasn’t seen less than seven targets in any game. Aiyuk has also put up at least 100 yards or a touchdown in all five. With both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel out this weekend, Aiyuk should continue to be heavily featured for the San Francisco 49ers. The matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is a great one. Dallas has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far this year and is dealing with injuries on top of that. Like 22Bet live, Aiyuk seems like a great place to place your bet this weekend.
49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk's last five games:
* 10 rec, 119 yards
* 5 rec, 95 yards, TD
* 7 rec, 75 yards, TD
* 8 rec, 91 yards, TD
* 6 rec, 101 yardsSince Week 9, he is one of three WR averaging 95 yards per game along with Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 17, 2020
Russell Gage (ATL) – $4,700 v TB
Russell Gage has quietly posted at least 15 DraftKings points in two straight games now. He saw at least seven targets in both of those games. This week teammate Julio Jones is out again. That should allow Gage to see more snaps, routes, and targets. This isn’t a great thing for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, but it’s a good thing for Gage at his current price. The matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a good one as well. The Bucs started out the year solid but have struggled for a while now. They currently allow the seventh-most DraftKings points to wide receivers on the season. This game is in a dome which boosts the passing outlook as well. Gage looks to be a nice value again this week.
Michael Gallup (DAL) – $3,500 v SF
Michael Gallup should be priced at least $500 more this week. Going back to Week 8, he has seen target totals of six, 11, eight, five, seven, and 12. That’s not the target totals of a wide receiver near minimum price. He’s certainly been a rollercoaster in terms of the production on those targets, but down at this price, nobody is reliable. Paying for the targets is the smart move. It will be hard to find a better bet for more targets in this range than Gallup. The matchup against the 49ers isn’t great but it’s also nothing to shy away from. Regardless of the matchup, this type of volume is something to target in a salary-saving option.
Others to Consider: Tyreek Hill (KC) – $8,800 @ NO, Calvin Ridley (ATL) – $8,200 v TB, Robert Woods (LAR) – $6,800 v NYJ, Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $6,600 v SEA, Corey Davis (TEN) – $5,800 v DET, Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $6,000 @ IND
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) – $8,000 @ NO
At this point it goes without saying, Travis Kelce is an every-week option in cash games and tournaments alike. It’s just a matter of if you can get there with a lineup around him that you feel comfortable with. He offers the biggest advantage over the rest of the position of any player on the slate. The matchup never really matters when it comes to Kelce because of the offense he’s in and how he’s used, but this one is on the tougher side as the Saints are one of the stingiest defenses in terms of DraftKings points allowed to tight ends. That shouldn’t push anyone off playing him if they have the money as he’s a great option once again.
Rob Gronkowski (TB) – $4,200 @ ATL
Rob Gronkowski has played much better than many people expected. He’s certainly not the world-beater that he used to be, but he’s stayed healthy all year and is currently a top-10 tight end in total scoring on the season. The Falcons have been better lately, but they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the pass and more specifically, the tight end position. This game is in a dome and should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate which should keep the Buccaneers throwing. This matchup looks like it should allow Gronkowski to be a solid option this week.
Cole Kmet (CHI) – $3,000 @ MIN
Usually, rookie tight ends are something to stay far away from. As of late, however, Cole Kmet has been an intriguing option. Part of this is due to how terrible the position is. The other part, though, is how the Chicago Bears have been using him lately. He’s now run more routes than Jimmy Graham in two straight weeks now. He’s also seen seven targets in two straight games as well. The matchup against the Minnesota Vikings also sees a boost as they are dealing with injuries to their linebacking corps. Kmet should be one of the most popular value plays at the tight end position this week and for good reason.
Thinking back to all the great plays from the #Bears' 36-7 victory over the Texans, Cole Kmet's 11-yard reception in the third quarter was one of the more impressive ones. He gets hit 7 yards short of the first down, but fights with stiff arms and spin moves to move the chains. pic.twitter.com/bFDCyO90aW
— Nicholas Moreano (@NicholasMoreano) December 14, 2020
Others to Consider: T.J. Hockenson (DET) – $5,200 @ TEN, Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) – $3,600 v CHI, Jared Cook (NO) – $3,400 v KC
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Week 15 DraftKings Plays
- QB – Jalen Hurts
- RB – Derrick Henry
- RB – Alvin Kamara
- WR – Brandon Aiyuk
- WR – Michael Gallup
- WR – Corey Davis
- TE – Jared Cook
- Flex – Kenyan Drake
- DST – Washington Football Team
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 15 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 16. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
