The San Francisco 49ers playoff chances are actually pretty good if they win out. However, the 49ers squandered a fantastic defensive performance to lose to the Washington Football Team 23-15 in Week 14, and that has eliminated any room for error going forward.
49ers Playoff Chances Take Hit From Washington Loss
Washington scored 14 points directly off turnovers from Nick Mullens. They returned an interception and a fumble for touchdowns. It is easy to say that these debacles on offense most likely ended any potential run to the playoffs for the 49ers. When examining the math involved, though, there is still a decent chance the 49ers can make the playoffs if they win out. It is still very possible for the 49ers to sneak into the postseason at 8-8. It seems dubious that this offense can score enough points with Mullens under center against an above-average defense, though. The good news is that the 49ers play the Dallas Cowboys this week. They have been horrendous at stopping the run. This offense is best when they lean on their explosive rushing attack. It can be a valuable opportunity to get the offense back on track and earn a win.
Even with that favorable Cowboys matchup this week, the Washington loss stings. The 49ers would have been in an excellent position in the NFC playoff standings had they won. The Minnesota Vikings also lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past week. That would have really helped the 49ers if they had beaten Washington. This loss to Washington means that a lot more variables have to go their way for a playoff berth to happen. Any room for error the 49ers once had going into these final three games is gone. The 49ers need to root for Washington to grab the NFC East title. They hold a potential tiebreaker with the New York Giants in the wildcard battle due to their win over New York earlier this season.
San Francisco absolutely cannot afford to lose the Cowboys game this week. If they were to lose, they obviously would not belong in the playoffs anyway. There is a reason the Cowboys are 4-9 this season. Dallas hasshown a stunning inability to stop the run on defense. This 49ers offense is built around an explosive running game. They have no business being in the playoffs if they cannot exploit that glaring weakness. A win against the Cowboys would put the 49ers at 6-8 with two games remaining against the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers would have to rely on a handful of favorable breaks delivered from other teams. If the 49ers can win out, though, the 49ers playoff chances are solid.
Currently, the 49ers are 11th in the NFC standings. They need to get up to the seventh spot to make the playoffs. The 49ers are already mathematically eliminated from the fifth seed. The Buccaneers have to win just one more game this season to thwart the 49ers from moving up to the sixth seed, as well. With two games against the Atlanta Falcons and one against the Detriot Lions, the Buccaneers will most likely get at least one more victory.
The Cardinals are currently in the seventh spot at 7-6. Minnesota is in the eighth spot at 6-7. The Chicago Bears are in the ninth seed at 6-7. Detroit is in the tenth spot at 5-8. The 49ers need specific things to happen these next three weeks if they want to leapfrog each of these teams in the standings. Each path is dependent on the 49ers winning out.
What Has To Happen To the Lions To Improve 49ers Playoff Chances
If the 49ers were to win out, the Lions could not afford to lose any of their remaining three games to stay ahead of the 49ers in the playoff chase. The Lions have remaining games against the Tennessee Titans, Buccaneers, and Vikings. That difficult stretch makes it extremely unlikely that they would win out. They need to lose just one more game if the 49ers win out.
What Has To Happen To the Bears To Improve the 49ers Playoff Chances
The Bears are a game ahead of the 49ers right now. They have remaining games on their schedule against the Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Green Bay Packers. The main issue with the Bears is not so much an easy remaining schedule. The only guaranteed win out of that stretch looks like the Jaguars.
The dilemma regarding jumping the Bears in the standings is that they are 5-5 in conference games. The best the 49ers can finish in conference games is 6-6. If the Bears beat the Vikings and Packers, they could still lose to the Jaguars and finish ahead of the 49ers. Their 7-5 record in conference games would give them the tiebreaker. The more likely scenario is that they would probably beat the Jaguars and would probably lose to a Packers team in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC that final week of the year. That would make their matchup with the Vikings this week crucial in helping determine the NFC playoff picture.
The Bears look like they will finish this season no better than 8-8. That is the best record the 49ers could have. If that Bears 8-8 record includes a win against the Jaguars, that means that they would finish with a conference record of 6-6. If the 49ers and Bears finish with 8-8 overall records and 6-6 conference records, their records in common games serve as the tiebreaker. The Bears and 49ers have played common games this season against the Giants, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, and Packers. The 49ers will be 2-3, while the Bears will either be 2-3 or 1-4 in those common games. It depends on what happens in their game against the Packers the final week of the season.
If the 49ers win out and the Bears win that final game against the Packers, beat the Jaguars, and lose to the Vikings, that would force strength of victory tiebreaker between the two teams to figure out which squad finishes ahead of the other in the standings. It is too early to speculate on all that.
If the Bears lose that final game of the season to the Packers, though, and still beat the Jaguars and Vikings, they would finish behind the 49ers if the 49ers were to win out. The Packers will not sit starters that final week if they are still in contention for that top NFC seed. That makes the likelihood of the Bears beating them relatively low. That is a bit of good forecasting news for the 49ers. The Bears would essentially need to win that Packers game if the 49ers win out.
What Has To Happen To the Vikings To Improve the 49ers Playoff Chances
The Vikings are about a similar sized obstacle as the Bears are to the 49ers. If the 49ers win out, though, they would need the Vikings to lose just one more game this season to still have a chance at that final playoff spot. The Vikings have remaining games against the Bears, Saints, and Lions. Right now, that Saints game looks like a probable loss for the Vikings.
If both the 49ers and Vikings finish at 8-8, they would be 6-6 in conference games. The tiebreaker would be based on common games. The 49ers and Vikings will have played common games this season against the Packers, Seahawks, Cowboys, and Saints. The 49ers are currently 0-3 in those games. They still have Cowboys and Seahawks on their schedule. If they win out, they would be 2-3 in those common games. The Vikings are currently 1-3 in those games and have one game remaining against the Saints. That Saints game could have huge ramifications. If the Vikings beat the Saints, then wins against the Bears and Lions would allow the Vikings to finish ahead of the 49ers. Beating the Saints means that they could lose to either the Bears or Lions, but not both. Since this hypothetical involves the 49ers winning out to get to 8-8, the 49ers would finish those common games at 2-3. The Vikings would then have to beat the Saints to match the common games record. If the Vikings were to win two out of their remaining three games, one of those wins would have to be against the Saints for the Vikings to match the common games record.
That is good news for the 49ers. It is looking like if the 49ers win out, the Vikings would need to beat the Saints to have any chance of finishing ahead of them in the standings. The Saints are arguably the best team in the league. They are still in a contentious battle for the top seed in the NFC with the Packers. The Saints game is a big obstacle for the Vikings. Unfortunately for them, it is the game they can least afford to lose if the 49ers win out. A loss to the Saints along with the 49ers winning out would likely do the job.
What Has To Happen To the Cardinals To Improve the 49ers Playoff Chances
The Cardinals have the best record of all these teams. However, the 49ers play the Cardinals in a couple of weeks. The 49ers have direct control over the Cardinals regarding their fate in the NFC playoff hunt. They can gain ground on Arizona by actually beating them in these upcoming weeks. If one of the Vikings, Bears, and Lions trio wins out, the 49ers are out. There is nothing they can directly do to combat that possibility. The 49ers can control whether the Cardinals drop a game in the standings to them, though. Their matchup during the second to last week of the season could be huge. If the 49ers beat the Cowboys next week, they enter that Cardinals game with a 6-8 record with the Cardinals either 8-6 or 7-7, depending on if they beat the Philadelphia Eagles this week.
For the sake of the hypothetical, let us assume that the Cardinals were to beat the Eagles to enter the 49ers game at 8-6. If the 49ers then beat the Cardinals, it would drop the Cardinals to 8-7 with one game left in the season, and the 49ers would be 7-8 with one game left in the season. It is all moot if the Cardinals win two of their remaining three games. However, the 49ers can directly control whether the Cardinals get handed one of those two required losses. If the Cardinals lose to the 49ers, they would need to not only beat the Eagles but also beat the Rams in the final week of the season. The Rams are still in a battle with the Seahawks for that NFC West title. They are unlikely to be in a situation to rest starters that final week. Los Angeles would be going all out to get a win in that final game of the year. The game could have an impact on their playoff seeding.
Something to consider with the 49ers and Cardinals is their division records. If the 49ers beat the Cardinals in the second to last week of the season, neither will have a head-to-head tiebreaker. They will have split their season series. The 49ers will have a 4-2 division record if they win out, which will include a victory over the Cardinals. For that scenario, the Cardinals could have at best a division record of 3-3. The Cardinals would then have to earn victories over both the Eagles and Rams to finish ahead of the 49ers.
49ers in Good Shape if They Can Win Out
There is a lot that has to go right for the 49ers to make the playoffs. It is paramount that they win all three of their remaining games. If they can win the three matches they still have left, though, the 49ers playoff chances are pretty decent.
The Lions would need to lose just one more game. With games against the Titans, Buccaneers, and Vikings, they most likely will.
If the Bears lose to the Packers, even if they were to win their other two remaining games, the 49ers would finish ahead of them in the standings by winning out. The 49ers would have a better record in common games. If the Vikings lose to the Saints, they could not finish better than 8-8. The 49ers will be at 8-8 if they win out. That Saints loss would mean that the Vikings have a worse record in common games with the 49ers. The 49ers would then get the tiebreaker over them. That also means that if the Vikings lose to the Saints, even if they were to beat both the Bears and Lions, they would only have an 8-8 record. They would still have a worse record than the 49ers amongst their common games. If the Vikings lose to the Saints, there would be no way the Vikings could finish ahead of the 49ers in the standings. The common games tiebreaker would be in favor of the 49ers.
Here are what 49ers fans need to root for: the 49ers winning out, the Lions losing one more game, the Cardinals losing one more non-49ers match, the Vikings losing to the Saints in Week 16, and the Bears losing to the Packers in Week 17. The 49ers would represent the seventh seed in the NFC Playoffs at 8-8 if all of the above transpired.
Of all those variables, the most unlikely at this point is probably the 49ers winning out. However, it is the factor most in their direct control. If the 49ers win out, they still have a viable path to the postseason. The outcomes they need to rely upon in that scenario look like favorable ones to count on right now.
It will most likely come down to the Cardinals losing to the Rams, the Vikings losing to the Saints, and the Bears losing to the Packers. It is dicey that all three of those outcomes will likely have to occur. In a vacuum, though, each situation looks more likely than not to happen.
This 49ers season is far from over mathematically. Their biggest challenge these last three games is to put together consistently effective offensive drives to put points on the board. They also need to allow their defense some margin of error. They should not feel the pressure to need to play perfectly for the team to have a chance at a win. The season is not over, though. The 49ers are very much still in this playoff hunt.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
