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Week 12 DraftKings Plays: Dalvin Cook, Darren Waller, and More

Week 12 DraftKings Plays; One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings.
Week 12 DraftKings Plays

That makes back-to-back winning weeks, can you believe it? One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 12 DraftKings plays.

DraftKings Plays for Week 12

Week 11 Recap

It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.

Looking back at Week 11, I bounced back. This week 46.7% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end groups all tied as the best group at a 50% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear down at a 37.5% success rate. For me personally, I had a nice week. We’ll look to keep the momentum going with the Week 12 DraftKings plays.

  • Week 11 – $395 → $784 ($389 PROFIT)
  • Year Total – $4,017 → $3,273 ($744 LOSS)

Week 12 DraftKings Plays

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert (LAC) – $7,200 @ BUF

It’s no secret that Justin Herbert is having one of the best rookie seasons by any quarterback in the history of the NFL. Herbert is currently on pace for 37 touchdowns. The rookie record is 27 touchdowns. Herbert also didn’t start the first game either. He’s averaging 26.7 fantasy points per game this season which is the best by any rookie quarterback in the history of the NFL. Anyone who has watched him play can see he makes all the throws and is smooth in doing so. This kid is special. This matchup is a nice one against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills allow the second-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks on the season. This game is also one of the fastest-paced matchups on the slate and one of the highest O/U as well. This should be a fun one and Herbert should be slinging it all over the place and a great play this weekend.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – $8,000 @ TB

At first glance it might look like this is not a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa has allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season. Tampa is also extremely stingy against the run, however, and that’s their true strength is limiting opposing running backs. Ultimately when you’re Patrick Mahomes the matchup doesn’t matter. Mahomes is on his way to another MVP campaign this season with over 3,000 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. This matchup should be one of the highest-scoring on the slate. It seems as though the Kansas City Chiefs have realized they need to throw as often as possible with Mahomes as their best way of moving the ball. He’s attempted at least 42 passes in three straight games now and has at least 348 passing yards in all three as well.

Derek Carr (LV) – $5,700 @ ATL

On the other side of that game is Derek Carr who is playing some of the best ball of his career right now. I featured Carr in my Stream Team article this week as well considering how juicy the matchup is. Carr hasn’t been spectacular from a fantasy standpoint by any means but he’s been solid more weeks than not. He’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in five games so far this year and really only had one bad game. This week against the Atlanta Falcons is about as good as it gets. The Falcons allow the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. The Falcons can also score points which should allow Carr to continue to throw more often. This game is also one of the highest O/U on the slate and in a dome. Carr looks like one of the best salary-saving options on the slate this week.

Others to Consider: Kyler Murray (ARI) – $8,200 @ NE, Cam Newton (NE) – $6,400 v ARI, Matt Ryan (ATL) – $5,900 v LV

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook (MIN) – $9,500 v CAR

Another week, another big Dalvin Cook game incoming. What’s not to like this week? Cook has seen at least 22 carries in every game since Week 3 outside of the game against the Seattle Seahawks in which he left with an injury. He’s scored at least 29 DraftKings points in every game besides for the Seahawks game and one other game. Cook is currently averaging 28.7 DraftKings points per game. Looking at the matchup, the Carolina Panthers are allowing the third-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. This game is also at home as a favorite. Cook is pricey but well worth paying up for this week.

Nick Chubb (CLE) – $7,100 @ JAX

Nick Chubb is often a fade for me on DraftKings and it has nothing to do with his talent. This guy might be the best pure runner in the NFL. The fade generally has to do with a lack of pass-game usage and the usual projected game script. This week, however, it’s likely that the game script should be heavily in his favor against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. Since returning from injury two weeks ago Chubb has seen 19 and 20 carries and turned them into 126 and 114 yards. He looks fully healthy and it’s unlikely that Jacksonville is going to be the team that slows him down.

Kalen Ballage (LAC) – $5,800 @ BUF

That’s now three straight weeks of at least 14 DraftKings points for Kalen Ballage. It’s almost as if 2020 has been a little weird and a bit off. As strange as it is, Ballage needs to be taken seriously as a viable option until Austin Ekeler returns, which may be soon. Ballage has seen at least 15 carries and seen his targets increase for three straight weeks now as he’s operated as the clear lead back for the Los Angeles Chargers.  During that stretch, Ballage has scored at least 14 DraftKings points in every game so far. This matchup against the Buffalo Bills is a nice one as well. This should be one of the faster-paced, higher-scoring matchups on the slate. The Bills also allow the tenth-most DraftKings points to running backs this season. As long as Ekeler misses this game, Ballage should be a good volume play.

James Robinson (JAX) – $6,300 v CLE

James Robinson has been the waiver wire hero of the 2020 season. As an undrafted free agent rookie, he’s been truly incredible. It’s a bit surprising he was priced down this week after a solid showing against the Pittsburgh Steelers elite defense last week, he gets a matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are not a great matchup for running backs, but also not one to be scared of either. Robinson has been the model of consistency this season. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in every single game this year. Robinson has also posted at least 94 total yards in four straight games now. The only concern was that Chris Thompson was stealing targets and third-down snaps from him but with Thompson on the IR, Robinson is back to being a true three-down workhorse.

Others to Consider: Wayne Gallman (NYG) – $5,000 @ CIN, Mike Davis (CAR) – $6,900 @ MIN, Kareem Hunt (CLE) – $5,600 @ JAX, Brian Hill (ATL) – $4,000 v LV

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (LAC) – $8,000 @ BUF

DraftKings finally priced Keenan Allen up where he should have been for a while now. It only took them 12 weeks to get him there. On one hand, it was starting to get egregious that they wouldn’t just bump his price. On the other hand, it was something to take advantage of on a week in and week out basis. Even priced up, Allen looks like a good play. People might get worried that Allen could see shadow coverage from lockdown corner Tre’Davious White. White, however, doesn’t travel to the slot where Allen runs most of his routes, so that should ease some concern as it’s likely Mike Williams will see a lot of White in this one. This should theoretically give Allen all the targets he can handle and that’s proven to be a ton. Allen currently leads the NFL in both targets (112) and receptions (81) on the season. He’s seen double-digit targets in every game except one with Justin Herbert as the quarterback and there’s no reason to expect anything else in this one.

DeVante Parker (MIA) – $5,900 @ NYJ

DeVante Parker sees a nice boost in target share when Preston Williams doesn’t play. Williams is currently on the IR. That bodes well for the volume for Parker. He’s now seen at least seven targets in three straight games, some of which were tough matchups. This week Parker gets to take on a terrible New York Jets defense. The Jets are simply one of the worst all-around teams in the NFL. They have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers so far this season. It would be nice if the Miami Dolphins would continue to start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Tua Tagovailoa as Fitzpatrick is much more aggressive in terms of getting the ball to Parker. It sounds like Tua will start, however, which is a slight downgrade to Parker. Even still, with Parker likely to see another seven targets at least, and at this price and this matchup, it’s a nice spot for him to return nice value.

Denzel Mims (NYJ) – $3,500 v MIA

Let’s go back to the well with Denzel Mims as a good punt play this week. Last week he came through with ten DraftKings points. He saw seven targets in the game and hauled in three of them for 71 yards. Mims has the fourth most air yards in the NFL over the last four weeks. He’s been a favorite target of Joe Flacco but hasn’t had that breakout performance yet. If he continues to see the targets and air yards that he’s been seeing, it’s only a matter of time before he pops. The matchup against the Miami Dolphins isn’t a great one but it’s not terrible either. Miami is solid against outside receivers so there is some concern but at this price, the volume plays. It sounds like Sam Darnold will start in this one so it carries a little more risk, but at this price, he still looks like a solid value play.

Julio Jones (ATL) – $6,500 v LV

Anytime there’s a big price decrease on a player, there should be intrigue. Julio Jones saw his price fall by $1,000 from last week. It’s all due to uncertainty with his injured hamstring. If Jones plays this week, this price is simply too cheap. Jones is obviously an elite receiver in terms of talent. As mentioned before, this game looks likely to be one of the most intriguing on the slate. Both teams can score and both aren’t great at stopping other teams from scoring. This game has one of the highest O/U on the slate and is being played in a dome. Keep an eye on the status of his hamstring because if he is likely to be a full-go this weekend, this price is just simply too cheap for a healthy Julio Jones.

Others to Consider:  Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $7,600 v LAC, Gabriel Davis (BUF) – $3,000 v LAC, A.J. Brown (TEN) – $6,700 @ IND, D.J. Moore (CAR) – $6,200 @ MIN, Sterling Shepard (NYG) – $5,100 @ CIN, Robby Anderson (CAR) – $6,100 @ MIN

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,000 @ TB

Yes, Travis Kelce is pricey, but there’s something to be said about just plugging him in at a position that’s been so terribly bad. It gives such an advantage when Kelce gives a 20-point advantage at tight end that others need to make up elsewhere. That might be exaggerating a bit, but Kelce is averaging 20.9 DraftKings points per game and only Darren Waller averages more than 11.9. It’s one of the biggest position advantages there is. Kelce currently leads all tight ends in targets (90), receptions (66), receiving yards (896), and touchdowns (7) this year. It’s been a truly dominant year for him. This week’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is not a great one by any means, but Kelce isn’t your average tight end. This game should be a high-scoring affair and that should keep Kelce involved all game.

Darren Waller (LV) – $6,000 @ ATL

Darren Waller has become the only tight end outside of Travis Kelce that can be considered reliable. He’s basically the discount version at this point since he’s in an offense not as high-powered. Heading into this week, Waller was second in the NFL in targets (84), receptions (60), and receiving yards (519) among all tight ends, trailing only Kelce in every category. He’s currently averaging 14.4 DraftKings points and has scored double-digits in every game besides three so far. This week’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is premium. As mentioned before, the Falcons’ pass defense has been atrocious this season. Waller is the top target for Derek Carr so expect him to be targeted heavily in this one.

Hunter Henry (LAC) – $4,800 @ BUF

Hunter Henry has been fairly consistent this season. It hasn’t resulted in any big games so far but most weeks have been serviceable. There’s something to be said for that when the tight end position has been so brutally awful this season. Henry has seen at least four targets in every single game this season and at least six targets in every game besides two. He has four receptions in four straight games now and is averaging over ten DraftKings points per game in that span. This week’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills is a good one. As mentioned before, this should be one of the fastest-paced and highest-scoring matchups on the slate. That should bode well for all players involved including Henry. The Bills have also allowed the third-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year. If you don’t have the salary to pay up for Kelce or Waller, Henry makes for a solid option in the middle range this week.

Others to Consider: Austin Hooper (CLE) – $3,800 @ JAX, Noah Fant (DEN) – $4,200 v NO, Evan Engram (NYG) – $4,500 @ CIN

Defense/Special Teams

In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.

My Tentative Cash Game Lineup

Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 12 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 13. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!

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