Welcome to Last Word On Hockey’s 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics men’s ice hockey predictions. Each day, our writers look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at Team USA battling Team Sweden in a quarterfinal matchup. Don’t forget to check out more Olympic Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the Olympics.
Winter Olympic Hockey Predictions USA vs Sweden
Olympic record: Sweden leads all-time matchup 7-6-2
Time: 3:10 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST), 12:10 p.m. Pacific
How to Watch: In Canada: SN, CBC, CBC Gem, TSN
In the United States: USA Network, Peacock
It’s time for another edition of Olympic hockey predictions as the United States battles Sweden. Team USA had some shaky moments but did get the second-overall seed for the knockout round. The Americans had some slow starts but did show their depth and scoring prowess in the second and third periods of each game. However, a slow start in these win-or-go-home games could have the Americans packing their bags early.
Sweden overcame its own slow start and are coming into this quarterfinal game on a roll. The Swedes struggled against host Italy before falling to rival Finland in the second game. However, Sweden finished strong in a 5-3 win over Slovakia but couldn’t win the group. The Swedes took care of business against Latvia with a 5-1 victory in the qualification round to set up this rivalry matchup.
Let’s take a look at the statistics and storylines for this critical matchup in this latest round of Winter Olympic Hockey Predictions
The Sweden Story
Many thought Sam Hallam’s club was in real trouble after the team’s first two games. However, Sweden steadied itself with wins over Slovakia and Latvia. The Swedes have totaled five goals in their last two games, and their offence seems to be clicking at the right time.
New Jersey Devils goalie Jacob Markstrom got the call in the last game and has calmed things down. Minnesota Wild netminder Filip Gustavsson got the start in the first two games and looked shaky at times. We will add, if you are making any player prop bets, to please check social media ahead of today’s match before locking in your choices.
Detroit Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond leads the team in assists (seven) and points (eight) so far this tournament. The goal-scoring has been spread around with plenty of players totaling two goals so far this tournament.
The USA Story
Team USA came into this tournament as of one of the favourites. The Americans have been notorious for starting slow in games against Latvia and Denmark. The Danes held the lead in the second period before turning on the offence in the second and third periods. Team USA’s third game against Germany was a more complete effort, but they have yet to put together a full effort.
Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck will likely get the starts the rest of the away for the United States. The former UMass-Lowell product has only allowed one goal in his two starts so far this tournament. However, he’s struggled in big spots at times.
Toronto Maple Leafs star and captain Auston Matthews leads the team in goals (three) and is tied with Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk in points with five. Tkachuk has five assists to lead in that category.
Prediction
One wonders how the Americans will do with having the extra day off. Will the Americans come out rusty, or will they feel recharged from the extra rest?
Sweden did beat the United States in the Four Nations Face-Off last season and seems to be playing better. There’s usually one massive upset in the tournament. Team USA has been shaky and won’t overcome a slow start.
Prediction: Sweden wins 4-3.
Best Bets
We round out Winter Olympic hockey predictions with some prop bets of the night. The over/under for Sweden versus the United States is 6.5, and we like the over in this game. As for individual props, take William Nylander to score an anytime goal for Sweden. On the United States side, go with Quinn Hughes to get a power play point.
Main photo by: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
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