Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the Montreal Canadiens. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens
Series: Lightning 1-1 Canadiens
How to Watch: US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO MAX, The Spot. Canada TV: CBC; Sportsnet; TVA Sports.
Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
It’s Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first-round series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens in this edition of NHL predictions. Much like the Dallas Stars and the Minnesota Wild series out west, this series has all the makings of one that will go the full seven games.
The first two games in St Petersburg went into overtime. Juraj Slafvosky completed a hat trick in Game 1 to let the Habs still home-ice advantage. However, evened the series at one game apiece thanks to J.J. Moser‘s overtime-winner in Tampa Bay’s 3-2 victory in Game 2.
This series could plant the seeds of a long-term rivalry between the two Atlantic Division clubs. There’s plenty of venom between the clubs and things are only going to get more intense the deeper the series games.
Let’s take a look at the statistics and storylines of this pivotal Game 3 between the Canadiens and Lightning in this round of NHL predictions.
The Lightning Story
Tampa Bay and Montreal have each scored six goals in the two games so far this series. The Lightning needed another comeback to send Game 2 to overtime. However, Moser’s goal helped Tampa Bay rally for the victory.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will once again get the call and hope to channel the goalie that won back-to-back Stanley Cups at the start of the decade. The Russian goalie will need to improve on his .887 save percentage in order to give Tampa a shot at taking home ice back.
Brandon Hagel has three goals already this series. Hagel and Guentzel are tied for the team’s lead in points with four. Guentzel has all four of his points via assist.
(Credit Image: © Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire)
The Canadiens Story
Montreal has gotten off the blocks quickly in both games of the series. The Habs got a 2-0 lead in the opening game before the Lightning tied things up. Montreal would love to give the fans at the Bell Centre something to cheer about with an early lead.
Jakub Dobes is the projected starter for the Canadiens. However, always check social media before locking in a daily fantasy starter. Dobes has an .895 save percentage and will also need improve his shot stopping percentage.
Slafkovsky leads the team in goals so far with three. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki each have three assists so far this postseason to share the lead with the talented Slovak.
Prediction
It’s been a closely contested series between these two teams. This series has the makings of one that’s going to go six or seven games. The one thing that gives Montreal an edge is their deadly power play. Montreal has converted on 44.4 percent of its power plays. That should get the Habs the edge.
Prediction: Canadiens win 4-3.
Best Bets
We close out NHL predictions with some prop bets of the night. The over/under for the Lightning versus the Canadiens is 6.5, and like the under in this one. It also may be worth a play to go with a less than 1.5 goal spread.
As for individual props, take Nikita Kucherov to get a power-play point for Tampa Bay. On the Montreal side of things, go with Caufield to get a goal.
Main photo by: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
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