Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference First Round series. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as the series rolls on through the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions with Lightning and Canadiens, Game 2
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to watch: ESPN2, CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS, The Spot
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Playoff Series: Montreal leads 1–0
Credit Image: © Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
The Lightning and Canadiens each finished with 106 points this season, with Tampa Bay earning home-ice advantage in the series by virtue of 40 regulation wins to Montreal’s 34. That meant little. Montreal won Game 1 in overtime 4–3, with Juraj Slafkovsky scoring the winner 1:22 into overtime. Game 2 is Tuesday at Benchmark International Arena, where Tampa Bay has lost nine of its last 10 home games in the postseason. The Lightning are 1–11 in their last 12 overtime games in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The problem in Game 1 wasn’t talent, it was discipline. Tampa took four offensive zone penalties, and the Bolts coach, Jon Cooper, said as much, calling it “stupidity.” The Lightning, who were the most penalized team during the regular season, didn’t correct that flaw. The Canadiens were 3-for-5 on the power play. If Tampa is going to tie this series, they need to clean up their act in their own zone and trust their considerable talent to carry the day. They will also need to capitalize on turnovers, like the 16 the Canadiens gave up in Game 1.
Tampa Bay — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks the Tampa Bay Lightning cannot afford another penalty parade. Their power play was 21%, ranked 16th in the league, while Montreal’s penalty kill was 78.2%, 18th in the league. That should theoretically favour the Lightning on the man advantage, but they have to get there. Yet, they were 40% on the power play, compared to the Canadiens 60%. The Bolts need to keep the top unit on the ice in 5-on-5 situations, when they are at their most dangerous. Brandon Hagel scored two goals, showing he’s a force capable of carrying the offence. They also need Andrei Vasilevskiy to recapture his playoff best; his postseason save percentage has sat at .881 in recent years, which has been a weakness in their recent playoff exits. A bounce-back game from Vasy changes everything.
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
The Canadiens came into this series as the sexy upset pick, and Game 1 proved they belong. Cole Caufield became the first Canadiens player with 51 goals in a season since Stéphane Richer, while Nick Suzuki became the first Hab with 100 points since Mats Naslund in 1985–86, finishing with 101 points (29 goals, 72 assists). Juraj Slafkovsky was the story of Game 1, scoring a hat trick, all on the power play, including the overtime winner. In goal, 20 saves delivered the win. Montreal was one of the best road teams in the league this season, and they clearly aren’t intimidated by the atmosphere in Tampa.
Montreal Canadiens — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions wants to see Montreal continue to draw penalties and punish the Lightning’s undisciplined play. The Canadiens’ power play clicked at 23.1% this season. Slafkovsky’s ability to quarterback that unit from the left circle is a weapon Tampa has no clean answer for right now. Montreal must also limit Tampa’s rush opportunities. The Lightning ranked fifth in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals, meaning their transition game creates quality chances even without special teams help. Dobes will need to be sharp, especially early, as Tampa will be desperate for a fast start on home ice.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This is a rematch of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, the series that kicked off Montreal’s rebuild, and both teams knew heading in that this would be a heated, physical battle. Yet Tampa’s roster is simply too talented to go quietly, and Jon Cooper will have his team dialed in and desperate. Kucherov, Guentzel, and Hagel will demand better from themselves, and Vasilevskiy has been here before. Still, Montreal has the momentum, the disciplined structure, and a breakout star in Slafkovsky who looks like he was born for this moment.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 3. Tampa gets off the mat at home, cleans up the penalty situation, and Vasilevskiy slams the door.
Prop Bets of the Night
Disclaimer: Please check social media for the latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as law.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (+120) Tampa has too much firepower to be held to one goal at home twice in a row, and they’ll be desperate to get Vasilevskiy some run support.
Anytime Scorer – Jake Guentzel (+135) Guentzel was at the centre of the overtime penalty that cost Tampa the game. He’ll be motivated in Game 2 and is the Lightning’s most consistent secondary scorer alongside Kucherov.
Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
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