Here at Last Word On Hockey, we will preview and review the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs in its entirety. We will provide three in-depth articles per series until one team is finally crowned the 2026 Stanley Cup Champions. This series features a rematch of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa Bay dominated the Canadiens in that series, defeating them in fives games, which would be the last time Shea Weber stepped onto the ice. It was also the end of Carey Price in top form. Price only appeared in five games for the Canadiens after that series, in what was a lost season.
Credit Image: © Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
On the Canadiens side, things look much different this time around. They have undergone a rebuild since that previous meeting in the final. This time around, they are entering the series tied in points with the Lightning. For the Lightning, some of their big star players who dominated the Canadiens in 2021 are still around and looking to repeat history.
Canadiens vs Lightning First-Round Stanley Cup Playoff Series Preview
Season Series
If the regular season is any indication, this series should be a tightly-contested battle. The two teams split the series two games apiece. The Lightning took the first two games of the series, which were both played before the New Year, while Montreal took the final two games, outscoring the Lightning 6-2 in the process. Overall, in the four games, the Lightning outscored the Canadiens 12-11, this is excluding the shootout winner for Tampa on December 28th, which just further proves how close these two teams really are. This series should surely be one of, if not the most entertaining series of the first round.
Goaltending Battle: David vs Goliath
The goaltending battle between these two teams is truly a David vs Goliath story. On one end, we have former Vezina and Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy is also a two-time Stanley Cup champion, with the most recent one coming against these very Canadiens, in which he was crowned the Conn Smythe winner as the MVP of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. On the other end, we have a tandem of rookie netminders in Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler. Dobes had his first taste of NHL experience last season, coming in relief due to a Sam Montembeault injury. Dobes went 1-2, posting a 2.91 goals against average and a save percentage of .881.
Fast forward to the present, and not much has changed on the Lightning side of things. Vasilevskiy is sure to be a Vezina Trophy finalist this year, after posting a record of 39-15-4 record with a 2.27 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage with two shutouts.
Dobes has also been impressive this season. Posting a 29-10-4 record with a goals-against average of 2.78 and a save percentage of .901. Fowler has also been outstanding for the Canadiens this season, posting even better individual numbers than Dobes. He has a 9-6-2 record with a 2.43 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage with one shutout. We fully expect Dobes to get the start in game one, but should he falter, Fowler will be more than ready to take the reins.
Canadiens Keys to Victory
For the Canadiens, they need their top line to continue the offensive ways that helped propel them to a top-three seed in the Atlantic Division and secure two victories against the Lightning this season. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield both had four points apiece in the four games against the Lightning, but it was Juraj Slafkovsky who dominated the play, scoring four goals and seven points in four games. This line needs to keep up this type of offensive output in order to stand a chance against the Lightning.
Another thing the Canadiens will need to do is stay disciplined. They don’t want to give the Lightning too many chances on the power-play, playing against an elite offence like the Lightning’s, who finished fourth in goals for this season. Though their power play finished near the middle of the standings, Nikita Kucherov is the league’s second leading scorer behind Connor McDavid with 130 points. He can make you pay any time he’s on the ice. The last thing the Canadiens want to be doing is playing a man short against a player of his stature. The Canadiens have managed to do a good job of this in their games against the Lightning this season, limiting them to just 12 power-play opportunities in four games and only allowing one goal. They need much of the same to find success in this series.
Lightning Keys to Victory
For the Lightning, it’s much the same as the Canadiens. Continue to get the scoring needed from their top players. As mentioned, Kucherov is the league’s second-highest scorer this season and is dangerous every time he steps on the ice. He’s led the team in scoring against the Canadiens during the regular season with three goals and five points in four games.
With the Canadiens power play being top 10 in the entire league, the Lightning are also going to want to stay out of the box. They haven’t done the best job of that in the regular season, giving the Canadiens 18 chances on the power play in four games; however, they limited them to just two goals. It’s a dangerous game to be playing against a high-scoring offence like the Canadiens, though, so limiting the amount of chances they give them on the man advantage will be crucial to the Lightning’s success.
Prediction
As stated, this matchup is going to be tightly contested between two teams tied in points in the regular season standings. It’s unfortunate that, due to the playoff format, one of these teams is going to be eliminated in the first round. However, it’s going to really kickstart what should be a very entertaining Stanley Cup Playoffs.
We believe this series is going to come down to the team that can stay disciplined and keep themselves out of the box. Both teams have a high-powered offence, and giving either of them the man advantage could spell the end to either of these teams’ playoff hopes. We do believe this series is going to go the distance, with the Canadiens eventually avenging their 2021 Stanley Cup Final Loss.
Series Prediction: Canadiens win 4-3
Main Photo: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
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