Nottingham Forest Fixture Analysis: How Many Points Needed to Stay Up

Nottingham Forest narrowly missed out on a valuable point against Liverpool on Saturday, March 2. Darwin Núñez’ 99th-minute winner succumbed the Tricky Trees to their third defeat in a row in all competitions.

Forest only have 11 games left in their Premier League campaign, sitting four points above the relegation zone in 17^th position. The Reds will begin their defence against the Premier League this week for breaking Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR), which raises real concerns of a points deduction in early April when the verdict from the hearing is expected to be made public.

Factoring this in, let’s take a look at the remaining fixtures for Nuno Espírito Santo’s side to see where the East Midlands club can pick up victories to make any potential points deduction obsolete.

Nottingham Forest Fixture Analysis For the Run-In

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Key Clashes Before the International Break

On March 18, the first international break since January will begin, meaning the Premier League will go on a two-week break.

Before the March international break, the Reds visit Brighton & Hove Albion and Luton Town. The away trip to Kenilworth Road already looks like a pivotal clash in the relegation battle, with the Hatters only a place behind Forest. In the reverse fixture at the City Ground, Luton came back from two goals down to draw 2-2. Forest are winless in five head-to-head matches against Luton, so Rob Edwards’ side will be confident of picking up a result.

Pivotal Away Games

Away matches at Everton, Sheffield United, and Burnley look decisive in the run-in. Burnley and Sheffield United already look to be cut adrift at the bottom of the league, so by the time Forest face both teams in May, they may no longer have a mathematical chance of staying in the Premier League.

Everton are also awaiting the verdict for their second PSR charge, having already been deducted six points. If more points are deducted from the Merseyside club and they continue their run of 10 matches without a win, Forest will be hopeful of finishing above them, placing extra significance on the match in mid-April.

Home Wins Needed

Home fixtures against Crystal Palace, Fulham, Wolves, Manchester City and Chelsea will be critical in the quest for survival. The Tricky Trees have the 15th-best home record in the league this season, only winning four out of their 14 matches at the City Ground.

Last season, they had the 10th-best home record in the division, securing 30 of their 38 points on the banks of the River Trent. The last five home matches of the 2022/23 term saw Steve Cooper’s side secure ten points, including wins against Brighton, Southampton, and Arsenal. A similar run of form would be invaluable in the remaining home matches this season to give Forest the best chance of survival.