Welcome to the EFL Final Five, Last Word On Football’s look at the potential ups and downs in the Football League going into the business end of the season.
This time, we’ll be looking at League Two, where only a minor miracle will seemingly stop the current leaders from topping the table come the end, the battle for the play-offs gets hotter with every game and only one team will escape the clutches of relegation in the three-way battle.
EFL Final Five: Lincoln Locked on For Title and the Three-Way Relegation Battle
Lincoln Locked On For Title
The rebuilding job undertaken by the Cowley brothers at Lincoln City has been nothing short of remarkable. After Chris Moyses left the club at the end of the 2015/16 season, when the side finished 13th in the National League, Danny Cowley, with brother Nicky as his assistant, took over, and the success was instant.
The Imps stormed to the National League title that year and also became the first non-league side to reach the FA Cup quarter-finals since 1914. They achieved a play-off spot in their return season, as well as beating League One side Shrewsbury Town in the Checkatrade Trophy final, but this season they have gone up another gear and currently lead the way by eight points.
MK Dons were their closest challengers for much of the early part of the season, but after they fell away over Christmas, Cowley’s side widened an already huge gap between themselves and the rest of the chasing pack by beating the Dons last Saturday. Paul Tisdale’s side dropped to third and could’ve been out of the automatics altogether were it not for Carlise United’s late win over Bury, but it means the Imps lead the way by eight points with five games to go, and if their closest challengers can’t stop them, what chance have the others got?
The Other Promotion Candidates
Automatic Spots
As aforementioned, MK Dons are well in the mix, but with it being so tight at the top of the division now, they, along with the others in contention, can ill-afford to slip up now. They were lucky that the Lincoln loss didn’t see them lose their place in the automatic spots and their next game doesn’t make it any easier, travelling to play-off contenders Tranmere Rovers.
A final day showdown with Mansfield at Stadium MK could be the decider between who goes up directly and who has to contest the play-offs, and you have to feel that whoever takes the long route goes into it on the back foot having fallen so close to the line.
Bury are also fighting to go back up to League One at the first time of asking. Their 4-3 win over Paul Tisdale’s Dons in January brought them firmly into the mix and they’ve remained there ever since.
The Shakers are winless in their last two though, and with a tough visit to Tranmere on the last day and uncertainty about the club’s future coming at just the wrong time, Mansfield and MK Dons must do all they can to take advantage of their position.
An outside shout for a spot is Tranmere themselves as they only sit three points behind Bury and are coming in off the back of a remarkable season after winning the National League play-offs in 2018. After that, though, you have to consider the other teams out of it at this stage, with Forest Green Rovers four points shy of Micky Mellon’s side.
Play-Offs
Forest Green could achieve their dreams of promotion to League One via the long way round though, but face close competition from those behind them. They sit in sixth, with Exeter City occupying the final spot in seventh, just two points behind. Only a point behind them is Carlisle, and a further point is Colchester United.
All four sides in that group are effectively fighting for two places, with Tranmere all but guaranteed of at least a play-off spot and the one team to miss out on automatics joining them as well.
Form would currently suggest that Forest Green maintain their position, with their only loss in their last five coming late at home to MK Dons. After that, Exeter also look likely to keep their position, with the in-form side that could cause them the most trouble being Swindon Town.
The Robins have been on a huge resurgence in 2019 and sit just four points behind the Grecians and they have momentum very much on their side.
Outside shouts could include Oldham Athletic, Stevenage and Newport County, but it’s still a fairly big gap to close in such a short time, and the trio will most likely have to make do with another season in the fourth tier.
Battle at the Bottom
For most of the season, it’s looked a certainty that Notts County and Macclesfield Town would be the two to drop down into the National League. For Macclesfield, that would be the result of just one season back in the Football League after winning non-league’s top prize last season. For County, however, it would be the result of season upon season of underachievement and disappointment for the financially-troubled oldest football club in the world.
Many teams have joined them down at the bottom across the course of the season, including Cambridge United and Crawley Town, but now its Yeovil Town firmly down there with them – so much so that they actually sit it a relegation spot now at the expense of Macclesfield.
A 2-0 loss away at MK Dons saw the Glovers part company with Darren Way but it’s made little difference so far as the Silkmen’s resurgence under Sol Campbell sees them continue to pull away.
Campbell’s side face trips to Forest Green and Northampton Town in their next two before visiting Port Vale and hosting Cambridge in their final two (they face Newport at home in between). Tough trips could see them brought back into the mix, especially if Yeovil can recover some form, increasing the importance of their final two games.
Yeovil and County are currently tied on 37 points and, given they have lost four of their last five, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Somerset club, who were in the Championship as recently as 2014, finish at the basement of the Football League.
To read our EFL Final Five Championship edition, click here
To read our EFL Final Five League One edition, click here
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