Al Horford has just received the Dominican Republic’s highest honor. Is he in line to receive basketball’s highest honor one day too? Certainly, the 38-year-old has had an impressive career to date. His most recent major achievement was, of course, winning the 2024 NBA title as the starting center for the Boston Celtics. The Dominican Republic honored him in part for being the country’s first NBA champion. But Horford’s case for joining the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame is a little more nuanced. What, outside of the Dominican Republic, is he actually all that famous for?
Is Al Horford A Hall Of Famer?
What Does Basketball Reference Think?
The first place to start would be with Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame probability calculator. Among active players, Horford ranks 25th with just a 23.78% chance of making it. Probably the most surprising person to rank ahead of him on that list is former Washington Wizards guard John Wall (32.39%), who might not meet the requirement of being active for much longer either. They are both five-time All-Stars and one-time Third Team All-NBA members. Meanwhile, Horford has scored more career points and had far greater playoff success.
Nonetheless, the Wall and Horford comparison gets to the root of Horford’s biggest issue. He just never really stood out. Horford’s five All-Star appearances came about sporadically from the 2009-10 season to 2017-18. Throughout that time with the Celtics and Atlanta Hawks, Horford helped his teams to solid records and some deep postseason runs. But he did so with unassuming averages and minimal flare. Over that period, his regular season numbers were 15.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. In contrast, Wall earned his five back-to-back while he was considered an emerging talent still rapidly accelerating towards his prime. Unfortunately, he hit a career-ending injury wall instead.
Wall almost assuredly will not make the Hall of Fame. Nonetheless, there is another intriguing point of comparison in his Hall of Fame case to Horford’s. One of the most memorable parts of Wall’s career actually had nothing to do with the NBA. Instead, it was his college career. The 2010 Kentucky Wildcats team was loaded with NBA talent. Wall was in a squad with fellow future All-Star DeMarcus Cousins and future All-Defense guard Eric Bledsoe. It was a fun team to watch. If anything, though, it underperformed. After one year, all three of them declared for the NBA draft.
Horford’s Hall of Fame College Career
Horford’s college career went a little differently. For one thing, he played three years for the Florida Gators. More importantly concerning his Hall of Fame case, in two of those years, he won the NCAA title. Although back in 2006 and 2007, those are still the program’s only tournament titles. However, there was another future NBA All-Star on the team whose career arguably even outshone Horford’s for a while, Joakim Noah.
Noah wound up having the same problem that Wall had. While his peak was a little higher than Horford’s, injuries quickly curtailed it. Despite a Defensive Player of the Year Award, Basketball Reference calculates Noah’s Hall of Fame probability at just 0.6%. Bear in mind that that is not accounting for his college run at all. Still, it goes to show just how much Horford’s long career of steady excellence is valued in his chances. In comparison, Horford’s 23.78% NBA-only Hall of Fame probability is certainly nothing to scoff at.
What About the NBA?
Horford’s continued steady excellence was vital to last season’s championship Celtics squad. It will very likely prove to be once more in 2024-25 as well. The Celtics are in the hunt to repeat as champions themselves. If the Eastern bracket doesn’t break so kindly for them next year, they may not survive another injury to nominal starting center Kristaps Porzingis. Horford’s floor spacing and defense remain elite, but he doesn’t provide the same post threat, which is a contribution that Porzingis significantly elevates the Celtics with. It goes without saying that the depth behind Horford becomes an issue as well once the veteran takes on the starting spot.
Horford probably isn’t thinking much about his legacy at the moment. But next season he will have the opportunity to approach the end of his career in a perfect mirror of how he nearly started it. If he can do that—go back-to-back with both NCAA championships and NBA ones—then his Hall of Fame case would be hard to deny. Realistically though, such a bonus might be more like the difference of having to wait a few extra years. Chauncey Billups was a somewhat similarly low-profile star (albeit with a Finals MVP). He had to wait ten years (instead of the minimum three for first-ballot selections) after his retirement before he got in.
The Last Word
The ship probably sailed a long time ago for Horford to be considered a first-ballot Hall of Fame selection. Some will argue that the inclusion of a player like Horford devalues the Hall. The counterargument would be that honoring a player like Horford is a celebration of playing the game the right way. Horford’s career is defined by self-sacrifice, even completely reinventing his game as a modern stretch five. It seems very likely that when the time comes, that is the argument that will prevail. In the meantime, even as his steady excellence inevitably declines, the latest recipient of the Order of Merit of Duarte, Sanchez, and Mella will just keep on playing the game the right way.
