The NBA is a copycat league. The Houston Rockets want in on the latest trend. These days, it’s all about the modern big man. But have the Rockets done enough to capitalize on their foothold in this latest theater of basketball warfare? After some experimentation last season, will they put a greater emphasis on it in 2024-25?
The Houston Rockets and the Modern Big Man
The Future Of The NBA
James Harden‘s Rockets were a major contributor to the NBA’s three-point revolution. But this latest frenzy consuming the NBA is a bit trickier. It’s powered by something a lot harder to come by than a few solid to above-average three-point specialists you can stick in the corners. The NBA’s new gold dust is a physical anomaly that’s becoming gradually less anomalous.
The modern big man is the future of the league. A player with the genuine size of a traditional power forward or center, along with some combination of perimeter skills. At some point, the best teams in the league will probably have two of them. At some point, thanks to positionless voting, the All-NBA First Team will be entirely populated by these types of players (though Luka Doncic‘s run of consecutive appearances would have to be curtailed somehow).
The most instantly recognizable representatives of this new, revolutionary archetype are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama. For the more traditional-big-man-physical-profile variant, also see Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. The two recipients of the last four MVP awards might look like lumbering giants out of the 1990s, but their arsenals are loaded with guard skills. What’s especially intriguing about Giannis and Wemby, though, is that you could play either of them with either of those other old-school giants or even with each other. Ultimately, flexibility is key.
Cruically the Rockets have their own model. Actually, in Alperen Sengun, they have one of the more lumbering variants as well. Lumbering isn’t even strictly fair since Sengun can be capable of remarkable agility. But his foot speed is low, and he lacks positional flexibility. The Rockets’ own version of the modern big man is Jabari Smith Jr.
The Rockets’ Version of the Modern Big Man
So far the Rockets have mostly used him like a slightly taller Harrison Barnes. To be clear, Smith is not and never will be Wembanyama. He won’t be Giannis or even Chet Holmgren either. Even one of the early precursors to this archetype, Kristaps Porzingis, came into the league with a much higher ceiling than Smith’s. Smith’s only notable offensive perimeter skill at this stage is his shooting. Even his shooting has thus far disappointed somewhat compared with the expectations for him coming in.
Smith doesn’t have a lot of lift and lacks the length of some of these other shot-blocking monstrosities. Combine that with his loose handle and his shaky reads, and it’s easy to see why he’s overlooked. But it’s important not to forget that Smith is a 6-foot-10 shooter who can hold up defensively on the perimeter and performed well in minutes last season at center. Smith might not wind up being one of those modern big men monopolizing the All-NBA First Team. Nonetheless, the Rockets are going to need his size and versatility if they want to compete in the modern big man’s NBA.
But it remains to be seen whether Houston is interested in making him a focal point. Smith averaged only 11.0 field goal attempts per game last season, actually down from 11.3 in his rookie season. His efficiency, on the other hand, saw a significant increase. He went from 47.5 effective field goal percentage to 53.7. Smith was used primarily as a floor spacer and offensive rebounder. Even when he played at the five during Sengun’s late-season absence, he was still an afterthought. Still, he did find moments to shine.
Is Smith Being Underutilized?
One thing this low usage rate means is that there’s theoretically a lot of room for improvement. Perhaps that’s why Smith was identified as Houston’s most likely player to “level up” by CBS Sports recently. Even just playing him more at center should give him more opportunities to score. But there are two possible explanations for Smith’s meager touches.
One is that Smith’s offensive game is just very limited at present. He likes to shoot over people. That’s the main thing he does. The problem is that he has a tall, narrow base, and defenders have seemingly had success in destabilizing it more than he’s accustomed to. That’s the thing about these modern big men; they do tend to be on the skinny side, and the Rockets’ version is no exception. Until he can strengthen that base, he’s reliant on getting open off of pick-and-pop actions and then the ball handler deciding that passing to him is the optimal play.
Do The Rockets Have a Plan?
The other possible explanation is more Machiavellian. The Denver Nuggets are showing the league what happens to teams that stockpile near-All-Star talent. They end up having to pay them like All-Stars. Denver won’t complain too much. They got a championship out of the contributions of Michael Porter Jr and the recently extended Jamal Murray. But they are going to have a hard time filling out the roster around their increasingly expensive core moving forward.
If Houston thought Smith could play like a star, they would probably try to use him that way. But if they think his ceiling may be as a highly versatile role player, then it may behoove them to ensure that’s his market. With all the young talent Houston has been accruing, they’re not going to be able to keep everyone anyway. They’re already playing it coy with extensions to Sengun and his potential star teammate, Jalen Green. But as a modern big, Smith is the Rockets’ foothold in the future of the NBA. Whatever direction they wind up taking, Smith will be included. Houston will hope it is at a price they can afford to pay.
The Last Word
The NBA is getting bigger again. The Rockets are going to need a player like Smith if they want to compete with the size and skill of the league’s best players. It’s still also possible he could become a star himself. But even if he doesn’t, he’s part of the future of the league. The modern big man is here to stay, and the Rockets need to keep a tight grip on theirs.