The Super Bowl has come and gone, which means we’re officially hitting the stretch run of the NBA season. With players finding new homes after the NBA Trade Deadline, it’s a time of change in the NBA. We can’t say who’ll summit the mountain in June, but what better time to try to pick and choose who has the best chances? Here is the NBA Western Conference tier list.
You can find my Eastern Conference tier list here.
Tiers on Tap: Western Conference
Tier One: The Joker and His Bruce Wayne
Denver Nuggets
They haven’t looked immortal, but the Nuggets are enjoying another excellent season. Denver brought back nearly every piece of their dominant 2023 championship team, and internal improvements from Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have helped fill the void left by swingman Bruce Brown. De’Andre Jordan is having something of a resurgent season, and Jamal Murray appears to have no lingering effects from his ACL tear two seasons ago. They kept the same roster at the trade deadline, making no move except giving away the rights to 2022 second rounder Ismael Kamagate for cash. The Nuggets sit just 0.5 games out of first in the West, and as long as Nikola Jokic stays healthy, they profile as a major threat to repeat.
Los Angeles Clippers
There are some concerns here, but it’s hard to argue with their 32-14 record since James Harden came aboard. He’s elevated this offense, and their litany of talented defenders allows him to hide on the less glamorous end. Kawhi Leonard is back to playing at an MVP level, and Paul George’s efficiency is at its best since 2020. Russell Westbrook has embraced his role as a sixth man, and the bench has complemented the stars well. They did nothing at the deadline besides acquiring Kamagate, who will play in the G-League; I don’t think they needed to. Their talent level is on par with anyone, and they play both sides of the ball exceptionally well. As long as they avoid injuries and potential infighting (see 2019 Celtics) they’ll be a real contender in the West.
Tier Two: Windows of all Shapes and Sizes
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have a long championship window, but OKC is really, really good right now. It’s rare to see a young team play as disciplined as they do on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they possess an efficient, sustainable attack led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with capable shooters everywhere. Defensively, they’re talented, calculated, and big; rookie sensation Chet Holmgren has blossomed into one of the league’s premier rim protectors. At the deadline, they went out and acquired the versatile Gordon Hayward, who provides veteran presence and efficient play. Yes, Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled in the playoffs before, and most of the roster is too young to have even sniffed the postseason. However, even if I wouldn’t go out and put my life savings on OKC to make a run, they’re deep, star-studded, and play both sides of the ball. Sleep on this team at your own risk.
Dallas Mavericks
Like much of the rotation, the size of Dallas’s championship window is a big question mark. They have one of the best players in the league in the 24 year old Luka Doncic, but there’s some belief he’ll ask out if they once again flame out of the playoffs. This is why the Mavs felt pressure to make the moves they did at the deadline, acquiring P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford in two separate deals. Washington projects as a starter, and his well-rounded offensive game fits nicely next to Luka and the mercurial Kyrie Irving. Gafford fills the backup center void that Doncic has openly been vocal about; his size (7′) and athleticism make him the perfect deputy to talented rookie Dereck Lively III.
It’s fair to point out that this could easily all go south for Dallas. Doncic and Irving are both big, challenging personalities, and their defense doesn’t look title-caliber. The concerns are valid, but if this team clicks? Doncic is one of the three best players on the earth, Irving is an NBA Champion, and they’ve filled the rotation out nicely. Yes, they could be first-round fodder, but their ceiling is incredibly high.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are as talented as anybody, but Phoenix’s margin for error is razor thin. The youngest member of their core is 27 year old Devin Booker, and they’ve cashed in virtually all of their assets to add talent going forward. It’s clearly a championship-or-bust season in the Valley, and they exhausted their remaining assets to acquire Royce O’Neale and David Roddy at the deadline. O’Neale will slot into the rotation to help a bottom-half defense and add shooting to an offense that could always use more. Roddy won’t see much run, but the 22 year old is a worthwhile flier for a team needing young talent. Ultimately, though, this team goes as far as Booker and Kevin Durant will take them. In terms of sheer talent, Phoenix is as good as it gets. Even if the early returns don’t scream “championship contender”, don’t be surprised if they’re playing in June.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Defense is back in vogue in Minneapolis. The T-Wolves have parlayed a league-best defense into a Western Conference first seed while guys like Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid have hit offensive growth spurts. Mike Conley is playing great basketball, Karl-Anthony Towns has hit on a blistering 44% of his threes, and Rudy Gobert is as much of a deterrent as ever. The issue in Minnesota is the offense, which ranks a pedestrian 20th. The Wolves made a minor move at the deadline, acquiring Monte Morris from Washington to lead the bench unit, but he isn’t likely to change their fortunes dramatically. Defense wins playoff games, and it’ll be hard to score on Minnesota, but limited firepower can only take you so far. Barring a superstar explosion from Anthony Edwards, a banner ceremony at the Target Center is unlikely.
Tier 2b: Voodoo Magic
New Orleans Pelicans
I could write for hours about the Pelicans. They’re what a rising NBA team should look like – a skilled blend of young guys and vets who play together on both ends of the floor. New Orleans stayed quiet at the deadline, opting not to disturb a roster that sits fifth in the West. The Pelicans are unlike most other teams in that they beat you by committee – 14 guys are liable to provide quality minutes on any given night, and they often do. They and the Kings are the only teams league-wide not to have an All-Star on the roster despite being in playoff position. Ignore that. New Orleans shoots 38% from three, and they have at least three guys who can go for 30 anytime in CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson. Their deep roster makes them uniquely able to withstand the playoff gauntlet, and they can throw all-world defenders (Herb Jones) at opposing superstars. They don’t belong in the tier above – superstars are paramount in the playoffs, and they lack one. However, their roster is deep and supremely well-rounded, and they have enough to make a run.
Tier 3: California Dreamin’
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento curiously did next-to-nothing at the deadline despite a talented roster with glaring holes. Not too much has changed here – they’re still an electric offense moored by a nonexistent defense. Stars De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have been great, but the rest of the roster is a fat question mark. Kevin Huerter has regressed, Harrison Barnes is aging, and the bench has been good but not needle-moving. They can score with anybody, but they have no wing defenders, and that’s not a sustainable formula in the playoffs. Fox or Sabonis could go nuclear and win the Kings a series, but anything further is unlikely.
Los Angeles Lakers
As usual, Los Angeles was linked with every name available at the deadline. Unusually, they came away with none of them, sticking to a roster that’s been inconsistent at best. The Lakers are stacked with usable NBA players, but head coach Darvin Ham seems to have little idea how to deploy them. It’s resulted in a ninth seed, a negative point differential, and rumblings of LeBron James leaving in the summer. The Lakers were in a similar spot at this time last year, though, and ended up in the conference finals. The first two or three weeks after the All-Star break should give us a glimpse into what this team can be. String some wins together, and the grass looks greener; drop a couple, and they might bow out of the play-in.
Golden State Warriors
It’s been a challenging season in San Francisco. They struggled on the court even before the tragic passing of assistant coach Dejan Milojevic, and their legendary core has clearly lost a step. Klay Thompson is nowhere near what he once was, Draymond Green is moonlighting as a UFC fighter, and while Steph Curry has been excellent, he hasn’t been as consistent as in years past. Andrew Wiggins has been awful, and Chris Paul wasn’t working out before his injury. However, if used correctly, the Warriors have enough young talent to make up for struggling vets. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga have been revelations, and the mere presence of Curry is enough to win a series. They’ve been bad, but all is not lost by the Bay.
Tier 4: Outside Looking In
Houston Rockets
After a promising beginning, this season has gone south for the Rockets. New coach Ime Udoka has instilled his defensive identity in Houston, but the offense has been too stagnant to compete. They did nothing at the deadline to fix that, and they seem content with a lottery finish and continuing their rebuild from there. There’s good news, though – Jalen Green and Cam Whitmore are having nice seasons, and Alperen Sengun had legitimate All-Star buzz. Despite these improvements, their ceiling remains low. Even if Houston goes on a run and makes the play-in, they’re just not strong enough offensively to push anybody.
Utah Jazz
King of the Rebuild Danny Ainge continued stockpiling assets at the deadline, giving away Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, and Simone Fontecchio. The Jazz have outperformed expectations, but haven’t done well enough to realistically compete for a playoff spot. Lauri Markkanen has been great, but the rest of the roster is just too young or not good enough. Utah’s 26-28 record isn’t indicative of their true level of play, and the trades won’t help their record this season. Expect their record to drop quickly as the season goes on.
Tier 5: Graceland’s Toilet
Portland Trail Blazers
This was always going to be a rebuilding year after Damian Lillard’s exodus, and the Blazers have performed as expected. Not all is lost moving forward – Portland owns their picks, and their young players have inspired belief. But, this list is solely for this year, and the Blazers are one of a handful of the league’s worst teams. Keeping Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant past the deadline was questionable; winning games this season is pointless. Portland is talented enough to get a signature win here or there, but nothing more.
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio’s 2023-24 was always going to be about Victor Wembanyama and his development, and it has been. This team is awful, leaving Wemby to go through growing pains without much in the way of pressure. He’s shown flashes of greatness, and he’s cruising towards the Rookie of the Year award. There’s not much to say about the Spurs – this season is a wash, but they’re well-positioned to be good in the years to come. They’re worth watching every night solely because Wembanyama might do something you’ve never seen before, which is more than you can say for most last-place teams.
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis’s ugly breakup with Dillon Brooks appears to have put some kind of curse on the Grizzlies, who’ve been hit with a hellish injury bug. Ja Morant missed time via suspension, then came back and immediately suffered a season-ending injury. The rest of the roster hasn’t fared much better – they’ve had so many injuries that the active roster was just eight men a few weeks ago against the Celtics. You can’t really blame Memphis for being as bad as they are, but nonetheless, it’s time to start looking toward next year in Graceland.
