Let’s paint a picture for a moment. On a mid-November evening, you’re a player on a power conference team preparing to play a game. Your coach has scheduled a game against a school you may not have even heard of before until tonight. They play in the WAC, or, is it the SWAC? You can’t remember, but you know that you are expected to win this game. 40 minutes of basketball later, you’re sitting in the locker room trying to figure out how your team became the victim of a mid-major upset.
Through the first 15 days of the college basketball season, there have been 15 instances of mid-major teams taking down teams from power conferences. Unless they’re of monumental value (looking at you Kentucky), they go largely unnoticed to the general public. However, for fans of both schools, there is either euphoria or heartbreak at the sound of the final buzzer. While it feels like these upsets come out of nowhere, there is a method to the madness. Whether it’s a hot night from the three-point line or crashing the boards hard, there are a few trends that have shown up in analyzing the box scores of those 15 upsets.
Anatomy of a Mid-Major Upset
1. Get Hot From Behind the Arc
The first key to pulling off an upset seems to be a bit cliché. Ever since the three-point line was adopted for the 1986-87 season, teams have been using it to their advantage. When three-point shots seem to start going in with ease, the NCAA continually pushes the line back. The most recent update was for the current season, as the rules committee pushed it to the FIBA line, which is 22 feet and 1.75 inches from the basket. Schools from mid-major conferences are often undersized when they match up with power conference schools. Thus, the best thing they can often do is keep the ball out of the paint and knock down three balls.
Across the 15 upsets this season, mid-major schools are shooting an average of 38 percent from behind the arc. Their power conference counterparts are shooting an average of just 28.8 percent. It’s not as if the importance of the three-point shot is ignored either. After Connecticut’s 96-87 defeat to Saint Joseph’s, Huskies’ head man Dan Hurley said, “guarding the three-point shot was a point of emphasis all week at practice.” Saint Bonaventure nailed 11 three-pointers in their defeat of Rutgers. Belmont’s 15 made threes were the most ever made at Boston College’s current arena. Nicholls State shot the three-ball 20 percentage points better than Pittsburgh in their victory over the Panthers.
In not defending well behind the arc, power conference teams open the door for mid-major teams to hang around. And, if they aren’t careful, that weakness just might have them leaving the gym with a loss. After all, the math tells that three points are more than two points.
2. Make Your Free Throws
How important are they? This is a question that is often heard when teams struggle to make their free throws towards the end of a close game. The free throw is supposed to be the easiest shot to make during a game. You are free of a defender being able to oppose your shot. If you’re a mid-major school that can capitalize on your attempts from the free-throw line, then you’ve got a shot to pull off an upset.
While power conference teams have a slight edge in the average number of free-throw attempts in the 15 upsets, mid-major schools are making their attempts count. David shot an average of 77.8 percent from the charity stripe compared to Goliath’s 68.3 percent clip in those 15 games. For example, Alabama’s Kira Lewis Jr. missed both of his free-throw attempts with just 2.4 seconds left, sealing Penn’s one-point victory over the Crimson Tide. Merrimack hit 10 of 11 and Radford hit nine of ten free throws respectively to seal their victories over Northwestern. Rhode Island went 12-12 from the line in the second half during their 14 point victory over Alabama.
There are plenty more examples that could be listed above. However, the bottom line is that mid-major schools did not waste their opportunities for free points. When the average margin of victory is 5.8 points, every point matters, no matter where they come from.
3. Take High-Quality Shots
It’s no secret that teams should value every possession they get during a game. It can be considered extra important for mid-majors, as not having good possessions can lead to disastrous runs by the opponent that create insurmountable advantages. Thus, mid-major schools need to take as many high-quality shots as possible.
In the case of the season’s first 15 upsets, mid-majors shot an average of 44 percent from the floor compared to 41.3 percent by their opponents. Shooting as close to the rim as possible increases the chances of a made bucket. For example, South Carolina often settled for three-point shots, gong 4-22 from behind the arc in their loss to Boston University. Working the offense from the inside out can lead to success in all three of the areas mentioned so far. Driving the ball into the lane leads to layups and fouls, putting players on the free-throw line. If the defense collapses, there’s a good chance a shooter is wide open for an uncontested three-point attempt. In all of those cases, a team is getting the best possible shot on their possession.
The average points-per-possession for the mid-majors in these 15 games is 1.06. Their opponents are only averaging 0.96 points-per-possession. Over 100 possessions, that leads a ten-point advantage for mid-majors. A mid-major upset is made more viable when teams don’t waste their offensive touches.
4. Experience Matters
In the one-and-done era, college basketball fans have gotten accustomed to getting one season out of future NBA stars. However, a high percentage of these one-and-done players are taking their talents to power conference schools. At the mid-major level, teams are often built around a strong core of four-year players. That experience can help when it comes to playing in these big games.
Based on KenPom’s experience ratings, mid-majors had a 0.36 advantage inexperience in the 15 upsets. While it can be tough to quantify, it is easy for coaches to see when their player’s experience plays a role in the outcome of a game. Pittsburgh’s head coach Jeff Capel said his team’s “maturity just wasn’t there yet, and that they needed to grow up” during his postgame press conference. Northwestern had five players make their college basketball debuts during their season-opening loss to Merrimack. Many pundits pointed to Kentucky’s lack of experience as to why they failed to make a comeback against Evansville during the game’s final minute.
It truly is a luxury for a coach to have older players on their roster. Three and four-year players have a comfort level with the systems in place with their team. There isn’t much that those players haven’t seen in most game situations. An experienced mid-major can feast off of the inexperience of power conference teams.
What It Means
The formula above has allowed a mid-major upset to occur 15 times through November 20th. These victories can be program changing when it comes to recruiting and boosting the confidence of the team. Southern Utah got its first victory ever over a Big Ten opponent. Boston University got its first victory ever over an SEC school. In the biggest upset of the year thus far, Evansville picked up their first win ever over the number one ranked team in the AP poll. These victories create lifetime memories for the players and cause a swell of pride amongst alumni everywhere.
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