We move on to the quarterfinals of the NIT Tournament as the St Joe’s Hawks pay a visit to the Pit in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to grapple with the New Mexico Lobos. The Hawks enter this contest with road wins over the Colorado State Rams and California Golden Bears, putting them at 24-11 on the year. The New Mexico Lobos have had a solid season again, coming in at 25-10 overall, including 16-3 here at home. They got to the quarterfinals with home wins over the Sam Houston State Bearkats and George Washington Revolutionaries. Which team will head to New York for the Final Four of the NIT Tournament? Read on to see my St. Joe’s vs New Mexico prediction.
St. Joe’s Hawks vs New Mexico Lobos: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: New Mexico -11; Over/Under 152.5
St. Joe’s Hawks
St. Joe’s enters the NIT quarterfinals at 24–11 after impressive road wins over Colorado State and California, showing poise in tight moments and strong late‑game execution. The Hawks average 73.3 points, shoot 42.9%, and rely on Jaiden Glover, who leads with 16.0 points. Derek Simpson adds scoring and playmaking, while Dasear Haskins provides interior production. St. Joe’s rebounds well with 39.0 boards per game, and their ability to compete physically has fueled their postseason surge. Their confidence on the road is growing, and they’ve already proven they can win in difficult environments.
Defensively, St. Joe’s allows 69.9 points and holds opponents to 40.6% shooting, ranking among the better units in the NIT field. They defend the three well and force opponents into long possessions. Their biggest challenge will be containing New Mexico’s pace and preventing early‑clock threes. St. Joe’s must also stay disciplined in transition, as New Mexico thrives when the game speeds up. If the Hawks control tempo, they can keep this matchup close.
For St. Joe’s to advance, they need efficient perimeter shooting, strong rebounding, and steady guard play. Glover must stay aggressive, Simpson must manage pace, and Haskins must compete on the glass. The Hawks have already beaten New Mexico once this season, winning 81–68 in the American semifinals, so confidence will not be an issue. If St. Joe’s limits turnovers and maintains defensive structure, they can push this game deep into the second half.
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico enters this matchup at 25–10 after home wins over Sam Houston State and George Washington, continuing a season defined by explosive offense and dominant play at The Pit. The Lobos are 16–3 at home, and they average 81.5 points on 46.3% shooting. Jake Hall leads with 16.0 points, while Tomislav Buljan adds 12.8 points and 10.4 rebounds. Uriah Tenette and Antonio Chol provide additional scoring depth. New Mexico’s balance and pace make them extremely difficult to contain, especially in front of their home crowd.
Defensively, New Mexico allows 70.9 points and holds opponents to 42.0% shooting, but they can be vulnerable inside. Their biggest challenge will be handling Saint Joseph’s rebounding and preventing second‑chance points. New Mexico must also defend without fouling, as the Hawks attack the paint and draw contact. Deyton Albury is questionable with the flu, which could impact New Mexico’s backcourt rotation. If the Lobos maintain defensive discipline, their offense can take control.
For New Mexico to win, they need to push pace, attack mismatches, and maintain their usual home‑court energy. Hall must set the tone, Buljan must control the interior, and the supporting cast must provide consistent spacing. New Mexico split the season series with Saint Joseph’s, and both teams have shown they can win in different styles. If the Lobos dictate tempo and protect the ball, they are well-positioned to advance to the NIT semifinals.
St. Joe’s vs New Mexico Predictions
New Mexico enters this matchup with a clear advantage in form, environment, and overall consistency. The Lobos are 16–3 at home, and their pace tends to overwhelm opponents who aren’t used to the altitude or the energy inside The Pit. St. Joe’s has been impressive on the road, but this is a far tougher setting than their previous two stops. New Mexico’s depth, tempo, and physicality usually show up early in these games, and their ability to create separation in transition has been a season‑long strength. With the matchup leaning heavily toward the home side, New Mexico -11 fits the expected flow.
The scoring outlook trends higher because both teams have consistently played in fast, open‑floor games during the postseason. New Mexico pushes tempo relentlessly, and its home games often turn into track meets. St. Joe’s has also shown a willingness to run, and their recent road wins featured long stretches of quick possessions. The earlier meeting between these teams produced strong offensive stretches, and both sides have improved efficiency since then. With New Mexico’s pace dictating the rhythm and St. Joe’s capable of contributing enough scoring to keep the game moving, Over 152.5 aligns with the projected tempo.
The most likely script features long scoring bursts, early‑clock shots, and stretches where neither defense fully settles. New Mexico’s comfort level at home should help them maintain rhythm, while St. Joe’s road tendencies point toward another high‑possession performance. Expect a game where momentum swings quickly and both offenses find clean looks throughout the night. New Mexico’s home dominance and St. Joe’s willingness to run combine to create a favorable setup for both plays. With those factors in place, New Mexico -11 and Over 152.5 match the most probable outcome of this NIT quarterfinal.
Final Predictions: New Mexico -11 & 152.5
Featured Image: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
