On Wednesday evening, the St. Joe’s Hawks will duke it out with the Colorado State Rams in Round One of the NIT Tournament. This contest will take place at Moby Arena in Fort Collins, Colorado. The Hawks had a solid season, going 23-11 overall, including 13-5 within the A-10. They are off a 77-64 loss to VCU in the semis of the A-10 Tourney. Colorado State went 21-12 overall this year, including 11-9 in league play. They are off a 72-61 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference. This is the first-ever meeting between these teams. Continue reading to see the prediction for the St. Joes vs Colorado State matchup.
St. Joes Hawks vs Colorado State Rams: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: Colorado State -5.5: Over/Under 145.5
St. Joes Hawks
Saint Joseph’s enters the NIT at 23–11 after a 77–64 loss to VCU in the A‑10 semifinals, but their overall season showed real growth. The Hawks went 13–5 in conference play and leaned heavily on the scoring of Jaiden Glover, Derek Simpson, and Dasear Haskins. They average 73.3 points and shoot 43.0%. Glover leads with 15.8 points, while Simpson adds 13.5 points and strong playmaking. Haskins provides interior scoring and rebounding. Saint Joseph’s also rebounds well with 38.8 boards, which helps them control tempo. Their offensive identity depends on ball movement and timely perimeter shooting.
Defensively, Saint Joseph’s allows 69.9 points and holds opponents to 40.7% shooting, one of the better marks in the A‑10. They defend the three well, allowing 31.6%, and their length helps contest shots. The Hawks also force 10.3 turnovers, which fuels transition scoring. Their biggest challenge will be containing Colorado State’s efficient perimeter attack. Saint Joseph’s must stay disciplined on closeouts and avoid giving up rhythm threes. If they control the glass and limit second‑chance points, their defense can dictate the pace.
For Saint Joseph’s to advance, they need strong guard play and consistent scoring from Glover and Simpson. Haskins must win battles inside and provide second‑chance opportunities. Austin Williford also needs to contribute as a complementary scorer. The Hawks must value possessions, avoid turnovers, and keep Colorado State out of transition. Their best path is a controlled, physical game where their defense sets the tone. If Saint Joseph’s maintains rebounding strength and hits timely threes, they can put real pressure on the Rams.
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State enters the NIT at 21–12 after a 72–61 loss to San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament. The Rams rely on efficiency and spacing, averaging 76.1 points while shooting an impressive 48.9% from the field. Their offense is built around Brandon Rechsteiner, Carey Booth, and Kyle Jorgensen, who combine scoring, size, and versatility. Rechsteiner leads with 12.2 points and steady guard play. Booth adds 10.7 points and strong rebounding, while Jorgensen contributes 11.9 points and interior finishing. Colorado State also shoots 39.1% from three, one of the best marks in the country. Their spacing and ball movement create high‑percentage looks.
Defensively, Colorado State allows 71.1 points and gives up 45.4% shooting, but they excel at limiting second‑chance opportunities. Opponents average only 29.6 rebounds, one of the lowest marks nationally. The Rams defend the three well at 33.9%, and their rotations are disciplined. Their biggest challenge will be handling Saint Joseph’s physicality on the glass and preventing Glover from getting downhill. Colorado State must also avoid foul trouble, as the Hawks attack the rim and draw contact. If the Rams control the boards and limit open threes, their defense can hold up.
For Colorado State to win, they must lean on efficiency and perimeter shooting. Rechsteiner must control tempo and create clean looks. Booth must rebound and stretch the floor, while Jorgensen must finish inside. Jevin Muniz also plays a key role as a secondary playmaker. Colorado State’s best path is a high‑efficiency offensive game where their spacing forces Saint Joseph’s into difficult matchups. If the Rams hit threes, protect the ball, and maintain defensive discipline, they can advance to the next round.
Predictions
Saint Joseph’s enters this matchup with strong momentum, winning seven of their last eight and showing major improvement on the defensive end. The Hawks allow only 65.0 points across their last ten games, and that discipline gives them a real chance to stay inside the number. Glover, Simpson, and Haskins provide balanced scoring and steady rebounding, while their perimeter defense has tightened significantly. Colorado State has also played well, but their slower pace and reliance on efficiency create a narrower margin for separation. With Saint Joseph’s defending at a high level and playing with confidence, the +5.5 offers strong value in a controlled, possession‑heavy matchup.
The total leans lower because Colorado State plays one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 358th in pace. Their home defensive numbers are excellent, allowing just 69.2 points, and they force opponents into long, late‑clock possessions. Saint Joseph’s has also leaned heavily toward the Under, holding teams to 65.0 points over their last ten games. Both teams defend the three well and rebound effectively, which limits second‑chance scoring. With two disciplined defenses and a likely half‑court rhythm, the Under 145.5 fits the expected flow.
The most likely script features Colorado State controlling tempo while Saint Joseph’s stays within striking distance through defense and efficient guard play. Glover can create shots late in the clock, Simpson can manage pace, and Haskins can win key rebounding battles. Colorado State will generate efficient looks, but their slow style reduces scoring volatility. Saint Joseph’s defensive consistency and recent form make them well‑positioned to keep this tight. Combined with both teams’ pace profiles and defensive strengths, St. Joe’s +5.5 and the Under 145.5 align with the most probable outcome of this NIT matchup.
Final Predictions: St Joes +5.5 & Under 145.5
Featured Image: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
