It’s time to dance for the 68 teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten was able to send nine teams this year, and each has the potential to make some sort of run. It was an impressive season for the conference, and this looks to be the best shot the Big Ten has had for a chance at the National Championship. With Michigan and Purdue both massive favorites throughout the season, it appears that both could actually pull it off and snap the 26-year drought.
They aren’t the only two teams, however, as Michigan State, Illinois, UCLA, and even Ohio State might have something to say in the NCAA Tournament. Some have far more unfavorable roads, but let’s look at some expectations for each of the nine Big Ten teams that are dancing.
Expectations for Big Ten Teams in the NCAA Tournament
Illinois – South Region (3-seed)
The Illini have the roster to compete with anyone. However, they need to rely on getting shots inside the three-point line. Not to say they can’t make a shot from deep, because they have plenty of shooters on the team. They can be too reliant on the three-ball, and it has cost them in some of their more important games this season. Illinois is a high-scoring team, averaging 84 points per game, and they are a great rebounding team. But if they get into a shootout, it doesn’t always work out. They will have to play at their best, even in their opening game, as former Iowa coach Fran McCaffery brings a hot-shooting Penn team into the NCAA Tournament. Can the Illini limit TJ Power?
Keaton Wagler has that it-factor, and he’s going to be key if the Illini want to finally break through and reach the Final Four. Having a healthy Kylan Boswell is big, too. His absence only added to the Illini’s rough February, where they lost four of their nine games. The ceiling for Illinois is the Final Four, while its floor could easily be an exit in the Round of 32.
Iowa – South Region (9-seed)
The Hawkeyes are in for a test in the first round, as they will take on the Clemson Tigers. Iowa plays at a far different pace than most teams, so that could play into their favor in the opening round. They have a real shot to hang with the Tigers, as Clemson has been inconsistent down the final stretch of the season.
You could say the same about Iowa, but they put up some strong fights against the likes of Michigan and Ohio State. Say they get past Clemson, a second-round clash with No. 1 Florida is likely. Whatever the case, Bennett Stirtz has delivered some March Madness heroics before, and he certainly can do it again. The ceiling for Iowa is the Round of 32, while its floor is the Round of 64.
Michigan – Midwest Region (1-seed)
The Wolverines are the frontrunners of the Big Teams who could win the NCAA Tournament. They were clearly the class of the conference in the regular season, going a record 19-1. A slip-up in the Big Ten Tournament Final shouldn’t deter Michigan, as they will have plenty of rest, awaiting the result of a play-in game between Howard and UMBC.
The triple-threat in the post of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr and Big 10 Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg are going to be tough to stop, for most teams, which only adds to their chances. The only real negative for Michigan right now is the LJ Cason injury. It has affected the team, as they aren’t shooting as well. Lacking his energy and effectiveness, nearly cost them against all three of their opponents in Chicago.
This team cannot afford to become complacent, as teams with strong shooters present a problem. The draw looks pretty easy, especially with the Wolverines’ size, but all it takes is one team to have a hot night shooting the ball. Michigan’s ceiling is the National Championship, while its floor is the Sweet 16.
Michigan State – East Region (3-seed)
Mr. March, as Tom Izzo is sometimes referred to, hasn’t made the Final Four since 2019. His Spartans did reach the Elite 8 one year ago and will be giving it everything they have to make a deep run this year. The only problem they face is arguably one of the craziest regions in NCAA Tournament History. For whatever reason, Michigan State finds itself once again in No. 1 Duke’s region for what feels like the hundredth time. However, before they can even think of that possible match-up, MSU has to get past North Dakota State in the first round.
The front-court senior duo of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper is in the home stretch of their collegiate careers, and if they want to leave a mark on the program, they will need to make a massive run. That duo, paired with Jeremy Fears Jr continuing to take that next step, the Spartans have a shot against anyone. The problem is that they can get in their own way at times. The lack of consistent outside shooting has cost them in big moments. When they make shots, they are in every game. They are going to have to make shots in this Tournament, with teams like South Florida and Louisville as potential second-round foes. Not to mention the East region also has Kansas, UConn, and St John’s as well. Michigan State’s ceiling is Elite 8, while its floor is the Round of 32.
Nebraska – South Region (4-seed)
Is this the year Nebraska finally gets a win in the NCAA Tournament? Why not? They have already had a record-breaking season. The Huskers have to keep things together, especially after getting bounced in their first game at the Big Ten Tournament when they got blitzed by Purdue. The Huskers have to refocus with a clash with the 14-seeded Troy in the first round.
In their eight previous NCAA tournament appearances, Nebraska has fought and played well, only to fall apart late. Just look at their previous two appearances in 2014, when they lost 74-60 against Baylor, and then their 2024 loss to Texas A&M, a game they had plenty of chances to win. The Trojans aren’t a team Nebraska can overlook. Rienk Mast has been consistent, but the Huskers need performances as he had against Michigan State earlier this season to have reassurance. Nebraska’s ceiling is the Sweet 16, while its floor is the Round of 64.
Ohio State – East Region (8-seed)
It has been a long wait for the Buckeyes, but they are finally back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022. They haven’t gone further than the second-round since 2013. The draw for Ohio State isn’t very easy this time either, but they have some real playmakers across their lineup. Bruce Thornton isn’t going to go quietly against TCU in the first-round match-up. Both of these teams can get hot, and that’s why it’s quite the tough 8-9 matchup. The gift for which either one of those teams wins? They get to face Duke.
The Buckeyes have been one of the hottest teams over the last couple of weeks. That certainly usually means a run is imminent in the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes have the pieces to shock the world. The injuries to Duke make them vulnerable, so if Ohio State can get past the Horned Frogs, they could have a shot at the Sweet 16. Ohio State’s ceiling is the Sweet 16, while the floor is the Round of 32.
Purdue – West Region (2-seed)
What a run Purdue made in the Big Ten Tournament as the seventh-seed. Despite being that low, they made it count, winning four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament. It also allowed them to grab the two-seed in the West Region. The trio of seniors who, as sophomores, made the National Championship Game are ready to make another big run. Trey Kaufman-Renn’s size and strength are going to be pivotal, as will be Fletcher Loyer’s shooting.
The guy who stirs it all is Braden Smith, as he is about to break the NCAA all-time assist record. Smith is more than focused on getting the Boilermakers to Indianapolis. They can compete with anybody, but two things are concerning for this group. Especially when they take on a big unknown at Queens University. Purdue has been upset by a 15-seed before, not to mention the now-infamous upset by FDU in 2023. The Boilermakers just played four-games in four days. Winning the Big Ten Tournament in many cases has been a death-sentance for making a deep run in the big dance. Purdue’s ceiling is the Final Four, while its ceiling is the Sweet 16.
UCLA – East Region (7-seed)
Of all the Big Ten teams in the Field, UCLA might be the team that can pull off the biggest shocks. The Bruins have to handle business against the 10-seeded UCF. The Knights can be pesky, but the Bruins have playmakers all over the floor. Despite some injuries and constant toughness, UCLA finds itself on a hot streak over the last several weeks. Donovan Dent proved Big Ten voters wrong with his performance in the Big Ten Tournament. From recording the first-ever Big Ten Tourney triple-double to dropping a combined 25 assists in three games, Dent proved he was better than an Honorable Mention in the Big Ten.
Add in guys like Eric Dailey Jr and Trent Perry starting to have confidence, and the Bruins have a real shot to make a massive run. Seven seeds have had plenty of March success, and this group has the potential, if they match up with UConn in the second round, to knock them off, not to mention if they see conference foe Michigan State again. UCLA’s ceiling is the Sweet 16, while its floor is the Round of 32.
Wisconsin – West Region (5-seed)
It’s no secret that guard play is what gets you far in the NCAA Tournament. In Wisconsin’s case, they have plenty of it. The duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd might be the best guard duo in the country. Blackwell averages 19 points per game, while Boyd averages 20.6 points per game. The Badgers ran out of gas against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament, but the way they shoot the ball from deep, they are going to be hard to stop.
Add in Austin Rapp or Aleksas Bieliauskas making their shots as well, then this team is going to be hard to beat. They will be tested as a five-seed by the 12-seeded High Point Panthers. It’s a usual upset spot in most tournaments, the 5 versus 12, but Wisconsin has a lot of firepower, which makes them more destined to compete with anyone. A second-round clash with Arkansas is going to be a must-see game. If they get past them, who knows how far the Badgers can go? Wisconsin’s ceiling is the Sweet 16, while its floor is the Round of 32.
However it plays out for each of these nine teams, the Big Ten needs a good showing in this NCAA Tournament.
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