After Louisville received an eight seed in the NCAA Tournament, it appeared that North Carolina’s chances of making the tournament were officially over. Louisville had a huge turnaround season, only losing to Duke in the ACC Tournament championship game. However, North Carolina heard their name called when the First Four games were announced. Hubert Davis was under fire early and appeared to be under more pressure with missing the tournament. So, what does this bid mean for North Carolina? Why were they given a spot in the tournament? What reasons would have left them out? There is so much to unpack with their selection, so let’s dive in.
North Carolina Is In: What Their NCAA Tournament Bid Means
Why North Carolina Earned the NCAA Tournament Bid?
The most obvious one is their NET ranking at 36. Historically, a NET ranking in the top 35 is almost definitely in, so 36 is right on that line. The NET is certainly not the end-all metric, but it is the most used metric in selection. The first team out, West Virginia, was 17 spots lower than North Carolina in the NET. Speaking of West Virginia, they also had a key injury to Tucker DeVries, while North Carolina has no major injuries. It’s hard to imagine that was a final breaking point.
North Carolina had one of the hardest non-conference schedules. They lost to a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament five times this season. Those aren’t wins, but they must not be penalizing them as losses. They played the fourth toughest non-conference schedule. Their NET, Strength of Record, Wins against Bubble, Kenpom, BPI, and T-Rank are all in that top 45 that normally earn an at-large bid. They also had an 8-0 record against Q2, an incredible record for any team.
The Argument Against North Carolina
North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament will be controversial for one main reason: their Q1 record. 13 Q1 games are great, but 1-12 in those 13 games is extremely hard to justify. West Virginia finished with a 6-10 record against Q1. Sometimes the numbers don’t make as much sense as the situation, as West Virginia does have a key injury which is included in the discussions. North Carolina struggled all season with winning big games. It doomed them a few seasons ago and nearly doomed them this season. Winning big games is important to make the NCAA Tournament. Without those big wins, how can a team be justifiably in the tournament? That is a tough question to answer and one that doesn’t have many good answers.
What the Bid Means for North Carolina
The Tar Heels have a chance. That’s all they could ask for when many people assumed they were out. However, all the pressure will be on them. They need to beat San Diego State in the First Four to justify their inclusion. They likely need to win their Round of 64 game to have most people convinced they were included for good reason. North Carolina has the talent to make a deep run, but everything comes back to that same question: can they win the big game? They have the opportunity to prove the answer is yes, but a loss to San Diego State likely sparks major questions about their bid. North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament path is not important; all that matters is what they do with it. The whole world will be waiting to pounce. No pressure.
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