There was a lot of debate coming into Selection Sunday. Would North Carolina sneak in despite such an off season? Would Texas be the 14th SEC team to earn a bid? Would Xavier or Indiana play spoiler to one of those teams? One team was not in those discussions: West Virginia. However, the Selection Committee clearly saw something that the rest of us didn’t. In a shocking decision, North Carolina earned the last spot in the NCAA Tournament over West Virginia. While the decision may not make sense to most, the decision has been made. So was it the right decision? Why were the Mountaineers left out entirely? Should they have taken another team’s place? Let’s investigate Selection Sunday’s biggest surprise.
West Virginia Out of NCAA Tournament
Why West Virginia Was Left Out of the NCAA Tournament
The metrics aren’t very impressive. While they aren’t necessarily far from some of the other teams like North Carolina, they don’t have the same matching numbers. Forty-six teams earned “at-large” bids (Duke, Florida, etc. still count here because they would have been in either way). West Virginia ranked 51st in NET, 53rd in KenPom, and 51st in BPI. But, they also placed 43rd in strength of record, 42nd in Wins Against Bubble, and 34th in T-rank. For me, the metrics alone give about a 50/50 chance of making the NCAA Tournament. So, their chances may have depended on their record.
One thing that must have been a deterrent was their 19-13 record. While they play in a tough Big 12 (and Baylor made it at 19-14), sometimes there are just too many losses. I don’t think West Virginia qualifies here, but it doesn’t help their case. The biggest con was one injury: Tucker DeVries. Key wins over Gonzaga and Arizona came with DeVries in the lineup. West Virginia went 6-2 with him, and both losses were Q1. That means they went 13-11 without him. The Selection Committee weighs injuries when discerning who makes the tournament. The committee left West Virginia out of the tournament because they believed that a 13-11 record without DeVries wasn’t enough to earn that last bid.
Why WVU Should Have Been In
West Virginia beat Iowa State without DeVries. They beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, too. Even if you remove the two Q1 wins without DeVries, they still have four Q1 wins, three more than North Carolina. They also have a better record than Texas in Q1/Q2. Like Duke proved in the ACC Tournament, a team is more than its star player. DeVries certainly would have helped this team go better than 19-13, but they still amassed a strong resume without him. The decision became a matter of health. For a selection committee that cares so much about the whole season, they rule out games pretty quickly when it comes to injury. One player helps, but doesn’t completely carry a team to victories against high-quality teams.
A Dangerous Precedent
I understand that injuries are extremely important, but they are not the entire story. West Virginia learned how to play without Tucker DeVries and won important games without him. West Virginia’s NCAA Tournament exclusion opens the door for any team to be “justifiably” left out of the tournament because of an injury to a player. It doesn’t matter what would have happened had he played the whole season, or missed the games against Gonzaga or Arizona. The results on the floor need to count. While West Virginia certainly wouldn’t have had the best resume in the field, they had a better resume than several teams included in it. The Mountaineers aren’t playing in March Madness because of an injury. Let’s hope this is the last time this happens, because if this becomes a pattern, the controversy will only continue.
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