One month ago, the North Carolina Tar Heels 2024-25 season was on the brink of disaster. However, the Tar Heels have been rolling since and are in a fantastic position to earn an NCAA bid. Have the Tar Heels done enough, or do they need to beat Duke?
North Carolina picked up its sixth straight victory last night with a 91-58 shellacking of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. The Tar Heels knocked down a season-high 15 three-pointers. Freshman Ian Jackson led the way with 19 points on a very efficient 6 of 10 shooting, including five of eight from deep. Meanwhile, Seth Trimble continued his solid play, and RJ Davis reached double-figures for the 29th time in 31 outings.
Last night’s win was UNC’s 20th of the season and its seventh in its last eight. The Tar Heels (20-11) sit in fourth place in the ACC at 13-4. Each of the Heels’ last five wins have been by double figures.
“It’s not any secret that we’re playing our best basketball right now,” Hubert Davis told Jones Angell on the THSN. “Since we went up to Syracuse, something has changed. We’re more consistent at doing the little things. No one is perfect—coach, team, or player. But we’re building little habits and doing those things consistently well. We have a lot of guys comfortable in their role and playing well at the same time, and that puts a smile on my face.”
North Carolina Tar Heels Done Enough To Earn A NCAA Tournament Bid?
UNC, which entered the season at No. 9 in the AP poll, concludes the regular season at the Dean Center against No. 2-ranked Duke. The Blue Devils are an incredibly talented team led by the 2025 NBA No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg, and they have been one of the top teams in the nation all season.
North Carolina and Duke is one of the best rivalries in college basketball. In their last meeting, the Blue Devils (27-3) jumped out to a 47-25 lead before coasting to an 87-70 victory in Durham. Kon Knueppel and Flagg combined for 43 points and led four Blue Devils in double-figures.
Duke outshot UNC 52.8-to-47.8% from the field, making 10 threes compared to seven for the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils were also 21 of 25 from the charity stripe, while the Tar Heels were just 11 of 14. Drake Powell and Davis scored 12 points to pace three Carolina players in double-figures.
Saturday’s meeting will be the 152nd Tobacco Road meeting. UNC has won six of the last 1o games and leads the all-time series 85-67, including winning six of the previous 10. The Tar Heels also won 40 of the 60 meetings in Chapel Hill and eight of nine games against the Blue Devils when ESPN Game Day was on campus.
Where Does North Carolina Stand In Terms of Projected Bracketology?
North Carolina is among the first four teams out in ESPN, CBS, Fox, and USA Today’s Bracketology.
“Few teams have turned things around more over the past few weeks than UNC, which won convincingly at Virginia Tech Tuesday to capture its sixth straight win and seventh in the past eight games,” wrote ESPN’s Neil Payne earlier today. “But the ESPN forecast model has been slow to move the Heels higher than the mid-30% range in the tourney odds, despite their recent run.
Other models’ consensus has them slightly higher, and it’s worth noting that nine of UNC’s 11 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including four top-10 teams—Auburn, Alabama, Duke, and Florida. The other two have come against the top 100. But a lot of the uncertainty for UNC revolves around the number of teams the ACC will send to the NCAA field and how the selection committee weighs double-digit losses against a strong schedule.
Why Are The Tar Heels On the Bubble?
A North Carolina victory over Duke would likely secure an NCAA Tournament berth. But do the Tar Heels have a path to the Tournament if they fall to the Blue Devils?
Before answering that question, here is a look at how Carolina got to this point.
North Carolina scheduled an ambitious nonconference slate of games this year. UNC went on the road to play at Kansas in the second game of the season. The Tar Heels, who returned less than half their production from a year ago, fell to the then No. 3-ranked Jayhawks 92-89.
At the end of November, UNC participated in the Maui Invitational — facing Dayton, Auburn, and Michigan State. The Tar Heels also hosted Alabama as part of the SEC/ACC Challenge and faced Florida and UCLA on neutral courts. They went 2-4 in those six contests and finished the nonconference season 7-5.
North Carolina has suffered a few hiccups in ACC play this year, but the Tar Heels have been relatively consistent. Their 13-6 conference record guarantees them a top-six seed in the ACC Tournament. While the Tar Heels are 0-3 against the conference’s top three teams — Duke, Louisville, and Clemson — and suffered double-digit losses in each game, each contest was on the road. Two of their three other conference setbacks are by one point each. They also outscore their conference opponents by 5.6 points.
UNC is one of the top offensive teams in the nation, ranking 24th in scoring (82.1 points a game) and 46th in efficiency. The Tar Heels are among the best shooting teams (48.3%). They don’t turn the ball over and get to the free-throw line a decent amount. Defense has been problematic as the Tar Heels are No. 222.
Last Word
While I had UNC as one of the first four teams in the NCAA Tournament last Saturday, the Tar Heels merit consideration with one more win, regardless of whether it is against Duke or in the ACC Tournament. Twice in recent times, the Tar Heels have won 20 games and been left out of the “Big Dance.”
Why should one more victory get UNC a tourney berth in 2025?
UNC has played a demanding overall schedule. Granted, the Tar Heels only have one Quad I victory (10 losses). But their seven Quad I and II victories are solid, and their eight victories away from the Dean E. Smith Center is highly respectable. Additionally, four of their setbacks are by a combined eight points.
“Six straight wins, averaging 91 points a game, and they’re shooting well over 40% from three during that period – making over 10 threes a game, ESPN’s Jay Bilas said today. “It’s a different North Carolina team than I think Duke faced in the first game. And North Carolina’s playing for their lives. They’re on the bubble right now. They have a resume that compares favorably with the other bubble teams. But you get a win against Duke at your home floor, that could clinch it.”
Photo Credit: © Brian Bishop, Imagn Images
