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The New Orleans Pelicans project to start Daniel Theis at center next season. Is “rolling the Theis” with the career reserve really the plan? It could be a make-or-break season for the Pelicans and their hopes to build around former first overall pick Zion Williamson. The team’s general manager, David Griffin, has claimed to be happy with the current composition of the roster. Their center rotation stands out as the central reason not to be.
Will Pelicans Really “Roll The Theis” At Center?
It could be that Griffin has high hopes for the Pelicans’ recently picked rookie center, Yves Missi. The rookie Belgian big man does have plenty of potential for immediate impact. Enormous and springy bigs who are willing to focus on defense, dunking, and dirty work can be invaluable. After all, the league just witnessed the Dallas Mavericks make the finals, with rookie Dereck Lively II being the most important center on the roster.
But Dallas’ strength at the center position came from being able to alternate Lively with imposing veteran Daniel Gafford. That is, besides having Luka Doncic to spoon-feed them both lobs. A full game of springy lob catching and shot blocking is a rare commodity. But a back-up (who wound up starting) of Gafford’s quality was especially important for a player like Lively. That’s because of the one weakness that has plagued rookie bigs since time immemorial: foul trouble. The center position is hard in the NBA. Fouls come easy; respect from the referees does not. Relying on a rookie to hold down your center position is guaranteeing that your game plan will be routinely disrupted by learning process-necessitated errors.
The Pelicans could be completely right to be high on Missi. But it’s very likely that he’s going to need a significant adjustment period before he’ll constitute an upgrade on Theis. Meanwhile, free agency has dried up. There are no credible improvements on Theis to be found via that avenue. That leaves trade. Though the options there are somewhat slim pickings, there may be some targets who could help the franchise out.
What Better Bets Are Out There?
Going into the offseason, the best center who looked like he might be available for the Pelicans was Jarrett Allen. However, despite some post-season experimentation with Evan Mobley at the five, the Cleveland Cavaliers seem to have no interest in trading Allen. That was made especially clear when the Cavs brought in Kenny Atkinson as the new head coach. He made his name as a player development savant in Brooklyn, with Allen’s development being a salve to the bereft franchise. Allen will be staying put. However, even without him, there are some other, albeit less desirable, targets worth looking into.
Where’s The Action?
The most obvious place to go looking for centers is Atlanta. That’s because the Atlanta Hawks currently have five five-men on the roster. One of them is, admittedly, Larry Nance Jr. The Pelicans just shipped him over themselves as part of the Dejounte Murray trade. While he seems injury-prone, over 60 games in each of the last two seasons is actually close to the norm for springy, athletic big men who spend a chunk of their court time up in the air around the basket. That means that the Hawks may look to part with last season’s tip-off man Clint Capela.
Hawks fans have long grumbled about Capela’s athletic decline and stiff hands. He’s also in the last year of his contract. It would be a return to an archetype of center that Pelicans franchise player Zion Williamson has formed a frontcourt with before. Williamson didn’t seem as horrifically affected by the spacing woes of a Steven Adams pairing as one might assume. Partly that’s because of Adams’ excellent interior screening acumen. Last minute, below the basket seals, which prevent shot blockers from rotating into the proper position, were a specialty of his. Capela does that less, usually focusing more on his own positioning for a lob (Theis actually does do it a fair amount too, albeit not as effectively as the larger Adams).
The Long Shot
The other team with a major center glut at present is the Portland Trailblazers. They just selected Donovan Clingan seventh in the draft. Obviously, he’s not available, but he creates a minutes squeeze for other bigs on the roster.
Robert Williams offers a similar skill set to Capela, but in a younger, cheaper model with a higher upside. The downside is that he got traded from a team where he almost won Defensive Player of the Year because he couldn’t be relied upon to stay on the court. He followed that up by only being able to get on the court for the team he got traded to a total of six times last season. Williams makes these other springy bigs look like iron men. Unfortunately, Williams just can’t be viewed as a regular part of your rotation. If you really wanted to roll the dice, though, banking on Williams staying healthy could be a long shot with a phenomenal payout.
An Even Bigger Gamble At Center For The Pelicans
But the Blazers have another kind of center archetype they might be willing to part ways with. Deandre Ayton had a slow start to his Portland career last year but picked up late in the season. Often, late stretches in the season have to be viewed in context. That’s particularly true when those teams are bad. The Blazers last season were bad. They finished with a bottom-five record in the NBA. But Ayton did something a bit more interesting than just improve his production, which still wound up below that of his Phoenix Suns days. He started taking different shots.
Ayton started showing off his midranger last season. His development with those shots was deferred by Chris Paul‘s arrival in Phoenix. The point guard maven turned the Suns into a contender, but he also turned Ayton into a pure pick-and-roll finisher. Shots around the basket definitely seem like they ought to be the priority for someone of Ayton’s size. And indeed, Suns fans bemoaned Ayton’s lack of physicality in those areas. That’s very understandable, but Ayton as a David Robinson-style midrange battleship actually makes for a deeply intriguing fit next to a dedicated rim destroyer like Zion Williamson. Obviously, threes would be better. Williamson already spent last season playing with a reasonably adept midrange shooter in Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas even took occasional three-pointers, though the reality was that nobody ever really guarded him out there. Still, Ayton would be a definite upgrade on Valanciunas defensively.
A Lose-Lose Scenario
To match Ayton’s salary, the Pelicans would have to include Brandon Ingram. That might seem like a lateral move, but occupying a position of need and freeing up minutes for Trey Murphy III would be a net gain for New Orleans. However, Griffin has already acknowledged that the team is unlikely to trade Ingram this offseason. After a discouraging season and seeking a contract nobody thinks he’s worth under the new CBA, Ingram’s trade value may be at a career low. The Blazers wouldn’t want him except to flip him into more picks. But if nobody else wants him, then who would trade the Blazers picks for him? Meanwhile, the Pelicans might not be happy being saddled with Ayton’s contract either.
Playing It Safe
If the Pelicans were adamant about not trading for an offensive liability at center, then there aren’t many other options. But with Theis starting at center, the team would also have minimal rim protection and a lackluster rebounding presence. There are a couple more names who could at least help with that. The expensive option is Jakob Poeltl. The Raptors have essentially no reason to hold onto Poeltl this season except that nobody else might want him. His specialty is steadiness. Think Ivica Zubac, but without any of his already limited post-scoring abilities. The new CBA limits the Pelicans’ ability to juggle contracts as well. A simpler target would be the Utah Jazz’s supposed Rudy Gobert replacement, Walker Kessler.
Kessler impressed in his rookie season. His impact may have been slightly overstated by those who wished to overly malign the haul the Minnesota Timberwolves gave up for Gobert. Nonetheless, Kessler was an immediate contributor on a surprisingly competitive Jazz team. His rim protection and rebounding instincts were excellent. Last year did not go so well for him, to the point that Utah GM Danny Ainge may view him as expendable. Someone like Kessler is more realistic as a midseason pickup if Yves proves to be too raw for meaningful minutes.
The Last Word
In spite (or perhaps because) of these various options, the Pelicans will likely go into next season with a center rotation of Daniel Theis, Yves Missi, and second-round selection Karlo Matkovic. Assuming that goes as disastrously as it sounds like it would, they may shop around for another option ahead of the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the high-roll scenario would be that Yves comes along quicker than expected and returns Theis to a more comfortable reserve role. Snake eyes or double sixes, New Orleans’ upcoming season will all depend on the “roll of the Theis”.
