Since 2001, the NCAA Tournament champion has been ranked inside the top 21 offensively and inside the top 31 defensively on KenPom. Taking that further, over the last ten years, nine champions ranked inside the top 20 in both categories. Last year, this same article and analysis produced the UConn Huskies as the winner. Let’s do it again! Here is the 2024 NCAA Tournament Champion prediction piece.
The Most Likely 2024 NCAA Tournament Champion
Houston Cougars, Offense: 17; Defense: 2
Houston is as good as it gets. They have consistently been a top-five team all year and are full of experience and talent. Jamal Shead is likely the NCAA Defensive Player of the Year. LJ Cryer has a National Championship pedigree and can really score it. The Cougars also are deep in the frontcourt and incredibly physical.
In the past, the concern for Houston has been the offense. This year, that is much less of the case as they can play through the post or knock down jumpers. They easily ran through the Big 12 which is one of the best conferences in basketball. The one main concern is their overall reliance on jump shots at times. Forty percent of Houston’s shots are threes this year. In big arenas with weird depth perception that can become problematic. Additionally, recency bias will see Iowa State having blown their doors off in a low-scoring affair.
UConn Huskies, Offense: 1; Defense: 11
The Huskies are the defending National Champions. Most people predicted a slide given the majority of that team moved on. However, UConn has been dominant all year and easily ranked inside the top 5. Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban have taken major steps and Cam Spencer has been as good of a transfer as you will find in the country.
The major hurdle for the Huskies will be trying to go back-to-back. The last time this happened was 2006 and 2007 when Florida cut down the nets in consecutive years. Safe to say, it is very difficult to do. Still, they have been the best team in the country from start to finish. If Hurley is atop that ladder again this year, no one will be surprised.
Auburn Tigers, Offense: 10, Defense: 4
Auburn might be the most surprising team on this list. They do not really have good wins outside of blowing out South Carolina twice. They also do not have any terrible losses. The Tigers just beat the teams they are supposed to and lose games as underdogs. Ultimately, that is the sign of a good but not great team. It is really hard to win championships without being great. Now, it is also difficult to say a team is not great when they easily won their conference tournament as Auburn just did. Then you look at the KenPom rankings and see them top 10 in efficiency and fourth overall.
Winning the NCAA tournament means Auburn would have to win multiple games as an underdog which they have not done all year. Statistically, they really defend and have a superstar in Johni Broome. The problem is their guards have been very volatile and that is the key to disaster in March Madness.
Arizona Wildcats, Offense: 8, Defense: 12
Arizona is another sneaky team on here. Playing on the West Coast makes them an underrated team at times. Caleb Love comes from UNC with plenty of big-game experience and Kylan Boswell is the steady guard you need in March. They have spent most of conference play blowing teams out, however, they have four losses by three points or less. Sometimes, playing in blowouts can be detrimental when a close game is on hand. In fact, they have played 4 one-possession games and lost all of them.
Unfortunately for Arizona, the last team west of Texas to win the NCAA Tournament was the 1997 Arizona Wildcats. That is quite a while and starts to be more of a trend than a coincidence.
The NCAA Tournament Champion is…
Of the last nine champions, seven have lost their conference tournament, including UConn last year. Additionally, every champion since 1985 made it to the semifinals of their conference tournament. So, in sum, we need a top 20 team in offensive and defensive efficiency that did not win their conference tournament but made it to the semifinals at least. That eliminates UConn and Auburn.
Arizona is out west and as mentioned, West Coast teams don’t win it all so cross them off. That leaves Houston. The Cougars got smacked in the Big 12 Final but that might be a good thing. They will come into the tournament with a lot of frustration and hopefully make plenty of shots. This pick is by no means a long shot but it always helps to have a good reason behind your bracket champion. Let’s make it 2 years in a row.
*Of note, Purdue is just decimal points away from reaching the KenPom cut-off.
